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CoreNet Global Real Estate CEU Course

This CEU course led by Jim Robey, PhD, focuses on Team NEO's pivotal role in stimulating economic growth in the 16-county Cleveland Plus region. Discover strategies for attracting global businesses and fostering regional teamwork. Learn about the economic forecasts for 2011, including GDP growth predictions and key insights from industry experts. Explore the dynamics of manufacturing, advanced energy, and workforce development. This course emphasizes collaboration between state, local communities, and business leaders to close vital economic deals.

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CoreNet Global Real Estate CEU Course

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  1. CoreNet GlobalReal Estate CEU Course Jim Robey, PhD Team NEO

  2. Regional Economic Development Who is Team NEO?

  3. Team NEO: The Region’s Sales Force Team NEO’s Mission Team NEO advances Northeast Ohio's economy by attracting businesses worldwide to the 16-county Cleveland Plus region. Team NEO’s Strategic Focus Generate Business Attraction Opportunities Execute with State and Communities to Close Deals Promote Regional Teamwork 3

  4. NEO Regional Economic Development System

  5. What Are the Economic Gurus Saying for 2011?

  6. What the Gurus say for GDP in 2011, or who is zooming who? • RSQE/Michigan: 2.1% (2.9 in 2012) • Kleinhenz and Associates: 2.9% • FRB Philadelphia (% of forecasters) • Negative growth: 3.9% • 0 to .9% 4.3% • 1.0 to 1.9% 12.2% • 2.0 to 2.9% 32.4% • 3.0 to 3.9% 28.3% 79.4% • >= 4.0% 18.7%

  7. Other Forecast Factors (US) • Inflation: 1.4% (‘11)—some energy basis • Real Disposable Income: • 2011: 1.5% • 2012: 1.7% • Light Vehicle Sales: returning markets • Annualized 2002 to 2007: ~17 million • 2009: 10.4 million (actual) • 2010: 11.5 million • 2011: 12.7 million • 2012: 14.8 million • T-bills: cheap money • 2011: .1% • 2012: .2%

  8. Optimism in Place? Source: Kleinhenz and Associates

  9. News of the Week • Precision Metal Forming Association: 15% of members have staff on layoff versus 85% in April 2009 (Crains) • NEOSA CIO Survey for 2011 (www.NEOSA.org) • 55% expect budget increases • 53% expect compensation to increase (44% no change) • 49% expect to increase head count • 3rd Quarter GDP growth (annualized) is estimated at 2.5% • October Statistics • US existing home sales: 4.43 million • US new home sales 283k (under expectations) • Durable goods orders: -3.3 • All factory orders: -.9% • Construction spending: .7% (consensus was -.4)

  10. More Recent News • November Statistics • Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 71.6 (up) • Consumer Confidence: 54.1 (up and above consensus) • US employment growth 39k (138k expected) • FOMC (economy.com) : • Fed funds rate: 00-.25 for “an extended period” • Low risk of inflation • Moody’s Survey of Business: • Global business in “funk” • Weak expect but continued growth

  11. Source: Moody’s Analytics 11

  12. Cleveland Plus Tracking Close to U.S. Rate Source: Ohio LMI

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  14. A Slight Up Tick:Manufacturing Employment Source: BLS

  15. Access to Light Vehicles: 12+ Million

  16. United Airlines CEO Smisek says Cleveland must 'earn its hub status every day‘ Crains: 11-10-10

  17. Capital: Balancing the Costs for Energy

  18. Advanced Energy Portfolio Standard • At least 25% of supply for each Ohio utility must come from “advanced energy” sources by 2025 • At least ½ (12.5%) from renewable • At least ½ from inside Ohio • Requirements begin at end of 2009, ramp-up to 2025 • Alternative compliance payment if utilities fail to comply

  19. What is Advanced Energy? Wind Solar Storage Smart Grid Nukes Biomass E Transportation Energy Efficiency Clean Coal (carbon sequestration) Fuel Cells

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  21. Capacity Utilization in US End

  22. Source: CoStar

  23. Source: CoStar 24

  24. A Good Overbuilt Transportation Infrastructure Source: US Census Bureau

  25. US Forecast for Holiday Sales • National Retail Federation • 2010 • Up 2.3% from 2009 • Forecast at $447.1 Billion • 25 to 40% of all sales for some retailers are in this period • 2009 • Up .4% over 2008 • Total retail last Holiday season $437 Billion 26

  26. For the State of Ohio Source: US Census, Current Population Survey

  27. Need to Ramp Up: Population 25+ Educational Attainment Source: Claritas 29

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  30. Of 422 responses 32

  31. Labor Pool: Broad & Deep • 29 colleges and universities nourish talent pool • 175,000 students • 26,000 BA/BS degrees awarded annually 33

  32. Ned Hill: The Competitive Advantage of Northeast Ohio • Required areas of product improvement • Education & workforce (incumbent workers) • Entrepreneurial management • Workplace flexibility • Areas of demonstrated competitive competence • Headquarters, insurance, banking & health care • Materials production/fabrication • Chemistry • Industrial design • Secondarily: logistics

  33. What We are Working On • 71 Active Leads • 18 Advanced Energy Opportunities • 14 Manufacturing Facilities • 17 Bioscience Opportunities • 5 Manufacturing Facilities • Potential Investment: • Jobs: 10,420 • Payroll: $265,355,645 • Capital Investment: $1,549,854,268

  34. Factors Affecting Decisions • Energy Costs • Oil/Diesel: Deepwater Drilling? • Marcellous Shale: 50 Trillion FT3 potentially recoverable • Currency: is the US a good investment? • Near par with Canada • Weakening against the Euro (closer to low than high) • Losing strength against Pound • Weakening against Yen

  35. Additional Factors • Mid Term Elections • Federal: control of House and Senate • Ohio: Governor and Senate • Affecting: • State Deficit: estimated as high as $8.8 billion • Health Care • Tax Structure • Spending • Policies

  36. Thank you.Comments or Questions? Jim Robey, PhD VP for Research Team NEO www.clevelandplusbusiness.com jrobey@teamneo.org 216-363-5420 38

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