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Dan Barclay November 2005

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004. Dan Barclay November 2005. Abstract. So there’s this paper that models political realignment on a two-dimensional issues axis. Problem is, it doesn’t have any data to back it up.

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Dan Barclay November 2005

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  1. Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004 Dan Barclay November 2005 Dan Barclay

  2. Abstract • So there’s this paper that models political realignment on a two-dimensional issues axis. • Problem is, it doesn’t have any data to back it up. • I’ll be bringing in data to quantify the model. Dan Barclay

  3. An Optical Depiction Dan Barclay

  4. Nifty Graph Dan Barclay

  5. Nifty Graph Dan Barclay

  6. Literature Review • Periodicity • Adams (1918): 12-year cycles from 1776-1812 • Schlesinger, Sr. (1949): Projected cycles from 1947-1962, 1962-1978, 1978-1993 • “Critical elections” • Certain elections such as 1896 and 1932 are “flash points” that see abrupt changes in ideologies • Discontinuous model Dan Barclay

  7. Literature Review II: First Blood • Attempted link to congressional politics • Brady (1982): Congressional policy changes can be explained through realignment theory. • “Our field isn’t credible, so let’s try to support it with one that is!” • Epic failure Dan Barclay

  8. Literature Review III: Reign of Chaos • The public opinion challenge • Stimson (1998): When you actually look at the data, realignment theory doesn’t work at all. You people are dumb. • Mayhew (2002): Yeah, what he said. • Huge pile-on; realignment lies in tatters Dan Barclay

  9. Literature Review IV: A New Hope • Maybe realignment theory will work if we use models that are continuous, not discontinuous. • Smith (2002): If we assume the two parties have gradually traded places in the past few decades, public opinion data doesn’t tear us a new one. • Miller and Schofield (2003): The paper I’m plagiarizing building upon Dan Barclay

  10. Miller and Schofield (2003) • Theory • Regressions show that the two parties have gradually changed places, which can’t be accounted for by white noise and must therefore be due to realignment factors • Mechanism • Each party continually tries to outflank the other to appeal to groups of swing voters • Two dimensions, economic and social Dan Barclay

  11. That Nifty Graph Again Dan Barclay

  12. 1896 Dan Barclay

  13. 1932-60 Dan Barclay

  14. 1960-64 Dan Barclay

  15. 1964-68 Dan Barclay

  16. 2005 Dan Barclay

  17. My Project • Quantify Schofield and Miller • Roll call data = relative density of each quadrant • Elections data = area occupied by each party • Public opinion data = frontier between the parties • Party platform data = point position of each party • I code national platforms on a 1 / 0 / -1 basis • Regress the results • Make projections Dan Barclay

  18. Validity Problems • None. Dan Barclay

  19. Methodology • Roll call: Use the data I already have • Elections: Acquire from NES • Public opinion: Acquire from NES • Party platforms: Code the data I already have • Regression: Use STATA Dan Barclay

  20. Validity Problems • Sampling error, from public opinion data • Personal bias, from coding party platforms • 1952-2004 time period dictated by data availability Dan Barclay

  21. Methodology • Roll call: Use the data I already have • Elections: Acquire from NES • Public opinion: Acquire from NES • Party platforms: Code the data I already have • Regression: Use STATA • Arbitrary designation of social issues as the independent variable and economic issues as the dependent variable Dan Barclay

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