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Operational Verification Results at MeteoSwiss in 2009

This document presents the results of the operational verification at MeteoSwiss in 2009 for various weather parameters such as temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation. It includes statistical coefficients, biases, and mean absolute errors for different forecast models.

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Operational Verification Results at MeteoSwiss in 2009

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  1. Results of the operational verification at MeteoSwiss in the year 2009Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann, Christophe HugMeteoSwiss COSMO General Meeting 2009 WG5 Parallel Session 7 September 2009

  2. Verification of COSMO-2 & COSMO-7 • Operational: • Surface (3h-steps SYNOP and 1h-steps SMN [Swiss Met Net]) • psred, ps, T2m, Td2m, 10m-wind, cloud cover, 12h-precipitation, gusts (since July 09: monitoring of the different components) • Upper-air(TEMP) • T, F, RH, wind • Ongoing in experimental modus: • windprofiler Payerne and Schaffhausen • Precipitation with RADAR (fuzzy verification, Ebert’s package)also weather-type dependant • Fluxes at Payerne • New / Next developments: • Global radiation at swiss stations and with gridded data from CM-SAF • VAD (locations of swiss radars) => All these packages will be replaced by VERSUS 2

  3. T2m: mean diurnal cycle (first 24h forecasts) OBS COSMO-7 COSMO-2 OBS COSMO-7 domain COSMO-2 Spring 2009 domain COSMO-7 Spring 2009 domain COSMO-2 Summer 2009 domain COSMO-7 Summer 2009

  4. T2m: statistical coeff. Winter 08/09 bias COSMO-2 COSMO-7 std dev mean abs error

  5. T2m: statistical coeff. Spring 09 bias COSMO-2 COSMO-7 std dev mean abs error

  6. T2m: statistical coeff. Summer 09 bias COSMO-2 COSMO-7 std dev mean abs error

  7. T2m: bias COSMO-7 (all stations) Autumn 08 Winter 08/09 Spring 09 Summer 09

  8. 10m-wind: bias COSMO-7 Spring 2009+15 to +24h forecasts

  9. 10m-wind: bias COSMO-7 Spring 2009(+24h of all 3-hourly forecasts)

  10. 10m-wind: bias COSMO-2 Spring 2009 (+24h of all 3-hourly forecasts)

  11. Precipitation: frequency bias for 1 mm/12h COSMO-7 Summer 2009

  12. Precipitation: frequency bias COSMO-2 & COSMO-7 FBI (0.1mm/12h) FBI (10 mm/12h) Spring 09 COSMO-2 COSMO-7 Summer 08

  13. Precipitation [mm/12h]: frequency bias [in %] (1)

  14. Precipitation [mm/12h]: frequency bias [in %] (2)

  15. Precipitation [mm/12h]: frequency bias [in %] (3) Summary: mean bias

  16. Verification of surface weather parameters • 2m-temperature: • cold bias in winter (reduced as compared to earlier winters) • positive bias during nighttime (except winter) • 10m-windspeed: • negative bias along the coast and on mountains, positive bias inland • total cloudiness: • mean daily cycle not well represented, partial coverage underestimated • precipitation: • underestimation in Summer (25% COSMO-7, 10% COSMO-2) andoverestimation in Winter/Spring (18% COSMO-7, 30% COSMO-2) • higher amounts in COSMO-2 / higher amounts over Alpine area • low amounts (0.1 mm/12h): overestimated in Winter (over the Alps) • high amounts (10 mm/12h): underestimated in COSMO-7

  17. Verification windspeed COSMO-7all stations Winter 08/09 COSMO-7: +0h +24h +48h +72h

  18. Verification windspeed COSMO-7Payerne Winter 08/09 COSMO-7: +0h +24h +48h +72h

  19. Verification temperature COSMO-7all stations Winter 08/09

  20. Verification wind speed (+24h)Payerne Winter 08/09 COSMO-2 COSMO-7

  21. Verification temperature (+24h)all stations (COSMO-2 domain) Spring 09 COSMO-2 COSMO-7

  22. Verification with vertical profiles: main results • temperature: cold bias (of ~ 0.5 K) last Autumn and especially Winter from ground up to 300 hPa • windspeed: positive bias in PBL (up to +1.5 m/s) and slight negative bias (up to -0.5 m/s) above 400 hPa

  23. Wind: gusts • COSMO-LEPS meteogram for Zürichof 28.06.09 12 UTCwithCOSMO-7 (blue) andOBS (black dashed) • overestimation ofconvective gusts ?

  24. Windgusts (gridscale, convective) COSMO-7 forecast

  25. gusts (opr-MCH) @ gridpoint Zurich OBS COSMO-7

  26. gusts (opr-DWD) @ gridpoint Zurich

  27. gusts (convective) @ gridpoint Zurich

  28. gusts (Brasseur) @ gridpoint Zurich

  29. Wind: gusts • COSMO-LEPS meteogram for Zürichof 14.07.09 12 UTCwithCOSMO-7 (blue) andOBS (black dashed)

  30. Windgusts (gridscale, convective) COSMO-7 forecast

  31. Wind: gusts • COSMO-LEPS meteogram for Zürichof 24.08.09 12 UTCwithCOSMO-7 (blue) andOBS (black dashed)

  32. gusts (opr-MCH) @ gridpoint Zurich COSMO-7 25.08.09 00 UTC .. +72h OBS COSMO-7

  33. gusts (gridscale) @ gridpoint Zurich

  34. gusts (convective) @ gridpoint Zurich

  35. gusts (opr-DWD) @ gridpoint Zurich

  36. gusts (Brasseur) @ gridpoint Zurich

  37. Summary for convective gusts • convective gusts strongly overestimated in some cases • high convective gusts possible with low amounts of precipitation • convective precipitation possible with no convective gusts • -> need for a better calibration („tuning“) of the convective ----gusts

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