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Last update: 1 July 2009

Carbon. Budget. 2007. GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Christopher B. Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Richard A. Houghton, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach. Last update: 1 July 2009. Outline. Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration

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Last update: 1 July 2009

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  1. Carbon Budget 2007 GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Christopher B. Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Richard A. Houghton, Gregg Marland,Michael R. Raupach Last update: 1 July 2009

  2. Outline • Atmospheric CO2 Concentration • CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel and Cement • Drivers of Fossil Fuel Emissions • CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change • Natural CO2 Sinks • Summary of the Global Carbon Budget

  3. 1. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

  4. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Year 2007 Atmospheric CO2 concentration: 383 ppm 37% above pre-industrial • 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 • 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 • 2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm y-1 • 2007: 2.2 ppm y-1 Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL

  5. 2. Emissions from Fossil Fuel and Cement

  6. 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Emissions from Fossil Fuel + Cement 2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C • 1990 - 1999: 0.9% y-1 • 2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1 Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC

  7. Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated)

  8. Regional Shift in Emissions Share 62% 57% 53% 49.7% 50.3% 43% 47% 38% Current Kyoto Protocol Enter into Force Percentage of Global Annual Emissions Kyoto Protocol Adopted FCCC Kyoto Reference Year J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication

  9. Regional Share of Fossil Fuel Emissions 100% D3-Least Developed Countries 80% D2-Developing Countries 60% India 40% China FSU 20% D1-Developed Countries Japan EU 0% USA Cumulative Emissions [1751-2004] Flux in 2004 Population in 2004 Flux Growth in 2004 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

  10. 3. • Drivers of fossil fuel emissions

  11. Human and Biophysical Drivers of Accelerating AtmCO2 Kaya Identity C Emissions = Population x Per Capita GDP x C intensity of GDP Per Capital GDP C intensity of GDP Population C Emissions Raupach, Canadell, Le Quere, 2008, Biogeoscience

  12. Regional Emission Pathways C emissions Wealth per capita Population C Intensity Developed Countries (-) Developing Countries Least Developed Countries Raupach et al 2007, PNAS

  13. 4. Emissions from Land Use Change

  14. Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change Tropical deforestation 13 Million hectares each year Borneo, Courtesy: Viktor Boehm 2000-2007 Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y-1 Tropical Asia 0.6 Pg C y-1 Tropical Africa 0.3 Pg C y-1 1.5 Pg C y-1 [2007-Total Anthropogenic Emissions:8.5+1.5 = 10 Pg] Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005

  15. 2000-2007 1.5 Pg C y-1 (16% total emissions) Africa Latin America S. & SE Asia SUM Historical Emissions from Land Use Change Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 Pg C yr-1 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2000 1990 1980 1860 1870 1890 1900 1930 1940 1950 1970 1850 1880 1910 1920 1960 R.A. Houghton, unpublished

  16. Regional Share of Emissions from Land Use Change Canadell, Raupach, Houghton, 2008, Biogeosciences, submitted

  17. 5. Natural CO2 sinks

  18. 4.2 Pg y-1 Atmosphere 46% 2.6 Pg y-1 + Land 29% 7.5 Pg C y-1 2.3 Pg y-1 Oceans 26% Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007) 1.5 Pg C y-1 Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

  19. Climate Change at 55% Discount Natural CO2 sinks absorb 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions slowing down climate change significantly. They are in effect a huge subsidy to the global economy worth half a trillion US$ annually if an equivalent sink had to be created using other climate mitigation options (based on the cost of carbon in the EU-ETS).

  20. The rate of CO2 emissions. The rate of CO2 uptake and ultimately the total amount of C that can be stored by land and oceans: Land: CO2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, … Oceans: CO2 solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity, acidification, … Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press

  21. Emissions 1 tCO2 400Kg stay Emissions 1 tCO2 450Kg stay Decline in the Efficiency of CO2 Natural Sinks Fraction of all anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere % CO2 Emissions in Atmosphere 1960 2000 1990 1970 1980 2006 Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  22. Efficiency of Natural Sinks Land Fraction Ocean Fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  23. Part of the decline is attributed to up to a 30% decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years. This sink removes annually 0.7 Pg of anthropogenic carbon. The decline is attributed to the strengthening of the winds around Antarctica which enhances ventilation of natural carbon-rich deep waters. The strengthening of the winds is attributed to global warming and the ozone hole. Causes of the Declined in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink Credit: N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5 Le Quéréet al. 2007, Science

  24. 6. • Summary • of the global carbon budget

  25. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2007 deforestation Source tropics extra-tropics 1.5 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) Sink Time (y) Global Carbon Project (2008)

  26. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2007 fossil fuel emissions 7.5 Source deforestation 1.5 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) Sink Time (y) Global Carbon Project (2008)

  27. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2007 fossil fuel emissions 7.5 Source deforestation 1.5 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) Sink Time (y) Global Carbon Project (2008)

  28. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2007 fossil fuel emissions 7.5 Source deforestation 1.5 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) atmospheric CO2 4.2 Sink Time (y) Global Carbon Project (2008)

  29. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2007 fossil fuel emissions 7.5 Source deforestation 1.5 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) atmospheric CO2 4.2 Sink ocean 2.3 Time (y) Global Carbon Project (2008)

  30. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2007 fossil fuel emissions 7.5 Source deforestation 1.5 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) atmospheric CO2 4.2 Sink land 2.6 ocean 2.3 Time (y) Global Carbon Project (2008)

  31. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated to 2007)

  32. Drivers of Accelerating Atmospheric CO2 • 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 • 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 • To: • Economic growth • Carbon intensity • Efficiency of natural sinks • 2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm y-1 65% - Increased activity of the global economy 17% - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy 18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks (calculations based on the period 2000-2006) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  33. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are growing x4 faster since 2000 than during the previous decade, and above the worst case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Conclusions (i) • Less Developed Countries are now emitting more carbon than Developed Countries. • The carbon intensity of the world’s economy is improving slower than previous decades.

  34. Conclusions (ii) • The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 5% over the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future), implying that the longer it takes to begin reducing emissions significantly, the larger the cuts needed to stabilize atmospheric CO2. • All these changes have led to an acceleration of atmospheric CO2 growth 33% faster since 2000 than in the previous two decades, implying a stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected.

  35. www.globalcarbonproject.org info@globalcarbonproject.org

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