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Model Diagnostics at HPC

Model Diagnostics at HPC. Jessica Clark David Roth Forecasters NCEP/HPC/FOB http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Camp Springs, MD. QPF 6 hourly through D3 48 hr QPF D4-5 QPFPFD Flood Products Excessive Rainfall (94e) QPFERD River Flood Outlook Winter Weather

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Model Diagnostics at HPC

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  1. Model Diagnostics at HPC Jessica Clark David Roth Forecasters NCEP/HPC/FOB http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Camp Springs, MD

  2. QPF 6 hourly through D3 48 hr QPF D4-5 QPFPFD Flood Products Excessive Rainfall (94e) QPFERD River Flood Outlook Winter Weather Snow/Freezing Rain Probability graphics QPFHSD Winter Storm Summaries Low Track 3 hourly Surface Analyses D1-2 Basic Weather Products Fronts/Pressures Instantaneous Pcpn Potential and Pcpn Type Medium Range (D3-7) 24 hr Front/Pressures Max/Min/12 hr PoPs PREEPD and PMDEPD Hawaii Narrative Model Diagnostics 500mb prog for West/E Pac PMDHMD NDFD Chat Coordination Tropical Weather Backup/guidance for TPC Public Advisories for inland tropical systems South Amer. & Caribbean text products Selected Cities/Travelers Daily Weather Map Air Quality Narrative Products HPC Issues

  3. Steps in the Process • Initialization • Model continuity/wavering over time • Model Biases • Climatological considerations, including teleconnections • Any consensus amongst current guidance? • Continuity with previous shift/forecast

  4. Model Initialization

  5. Targeted Obs D5 feature of interest D5 spread in the ensembles Day 5 forecast Day 1 feature Area of interest on D1 associated with the D5 feature In the winter months, HPC can request “Targeted Observations” be taken in order to improve the data coverage in an area associated with a system which has considerable uncertainty associated with its forecast on D3-7

  6. Surface initialization

  7. 850 hPa Initialization

  8. 500 hPa Initialization

  9. Precipitable Water Initialization

  10. 250 hPa wind initialization

  11. Model continuity & wavering over time

  12. Run-to-Run Comparisons

  13. Day-to-day comparisons

  14. Comparison across multiple days

  15. Model Biases

  16. Example from the ECMWF Models can be too retrogressive with closed cyclones – shows up regularly on the ECMWF particularly from 120 hours onward. In the case of the ECMWF, a southward bias also appears due to its relatively stronger mid-level ridges

  17. Climatology Considerations in determining model preference

  18. Presence of warm/cold ENSO phase

  19. Teleconnections with an anomaly center

  20. Teleconnection-favored pattern

  21. Is there a model consensus?

  22. Use of ensemble members from the NCEP/GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models in determining preference

  23. NCEP ensemble member spaghetti plots

  24. Overall spaghetti plots

  25. Ensemble low clustering

  26. Model Diagnostic-related Products

  27. Products relating to Model Diagnostics • PMDHMD – Model Diagnostic Discussion which covers model choices over the next 3 days, issued twice daily • PREEPD/PMDEPD – Extended Forecast Discussions which cover the days 3-7 period both in model choice and sensible weather impact • 500 hPa graphics for 36-168 hours • Fronts for days 3-7 for the United States and vicinity overnight

  28. 500 mb D3-7 Progshttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr500.shtml • Generated twice daily • Blend generally used; Manually editable • “Graphics Description” – model percentages and level of confidence • Issued to web only • Comparison fields between HPC H5 progs and 00Z GFS and 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean

  29. Medium Range Pressure Forecast

  30. HPC vs models in the days 3-7 pressures

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