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Designing Social Protection Frameworks for Somalia: Findings and Ways Forward in SCS

Designing Social Protection Frameworks for Somalia: Findings and Ways Forward in SCS Gabrielle Smith 29 th September 2014. SESSION 3: FINDINGS OF THE STUDY. Activities and Methods Macro Level Context Vulnerability Analysis Mapping of Social Protection Enabling Environment.

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Designing Social Protection Frameworks for Somalia: Findings and Ways Forward in SCS

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  1. Designing Social Protection Frameworks for Somalia: Findings and Ways Forward in SCS Gabrielle Smith 29th September 2014

  2. SESSION 3: FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

  3. Activities and Methods • Macro Level Context • Vulnerability Analysis • Mapping of Social Protection • Enabling Environment

  4. 1. Activities and Methods

  5. 1. Activities and MethodsDistrict Selection (2-3 per Zone) Rationale • Ensure representation of communities from different livelihoods zones and urban-rural. • Inclusion of views of minority and marginalized groups. • Districts for which existing data highlights high levels of vulnerability (MICS 2011 and WFP trends in nutrition 2007-2012) • Districts and study locations that are secure to access for research (impact SCS) • Overlap with some of the targeted areas for the UN Joint Resilience Programme. • Districts accessible within one days’ travelling time from urban centres, to make best use of the time available.

  6. Study Sites Somaliland

  7. Study Sites

  8. 1. Activities and MethodsQualitative Research Activities • Literature Review: relevant secondary data, to inform the study approach. Underpinned by the team’s extensive knowledge of social protection schemes internationally. => conceptual framework and parameters of the study • Vulnerability Analysis: qualitative data collected from community members and key informants, triangulated with secondary data sources, to identify key drivers of inequality and vulnerability in each Zone and the factors that affect this. Including participation of vulnerable groups - children, women, the elderly, the disabled, IDP and pastoral communities and minority clans. • Mapping of Social Protection and the Enabling Environment: mapping existing social protection and safety net related initiatives, institutions and structures at national, sub-national and community level; and the current policy, institutional and regulatory framework.

  9. 1. Activities and MethodsParameters of the Study

  10. 1. Activities and MethodsFocus on Social Transfers (CTs) • cash based social transfers are at the core of any social protection policy framework and are one of the foundation building blocks in LICs • Given issues of capacity, important to limit scope in the short to medium term • Cash transfers proven to be feasible and appropriate in this context • Huge amount of evidence that well designed CTs can contribute to all the functions of social protection (protect consumption; prevent fall further into poverty; promote investments in human development, assets and the labour market for more productive livelihoods and transform relations in society – tool for poverty, reduction, resilience building and multi-dimensional wellbeing.

  11. 1. Activities and MethodsResearch Instruments • Participants FGD/LHI • Older people 50+ (m/f) • Adults of working age 25-50 (m/f) • Young people 18-25 (m/f) • People with disabilities • School age children 10-14 • Minority groups (Gabooye) (m/f) • Key Informants • District level government • Community/religious leaders • Local service providers and CBOs • Development Partners • Central Government • Financial service providers • INGOs Qualitative research: group and one-on-one discussions with communities and particular demographic groups • Community Mapping • Focus group discussions • Life History interviews • Key Informant Interviews Visual aids (timelines of community events and lifecycle events, seasonal calendars)

  12. 2. Macro level context

  13. 2. The Macro Level ContextSummary Findings – Demographics (MICS) • Estimated population Somalia – 10.5m • Birthrate high – 6.4 (Somaliland) • Average HH size of 6 • Large young population - 50% under 15 • +60% of households have at least one child under 5 • 91% have a child under 18 • 33% of households considered FHH • High rate urbanisation - 3.4%/annum • Somaliland 2050 projection - +50% urban Age and sex distribution Somaliland (MICS survey 2011)

  14. 2. The Macro Level ContextSocio-economic Summary • GDP per capita $347 (2012), 4th lowest in the world. • Chronic unemployment - way above SSA average. • Strong markets are a critical support facilitating movement of people, money and goods. • $1.3bn in remittances is transferred annually however not equitably received • HH survey for Somaliland (2013) estimated poverty in urban areas at 29% (v Ethiopia 26%) and rural poverty is 38% (v Ethiopia 30%). Excludes urban IDPs and nomadic communities. Therefore these are likely to be underestimates. • Income inequality much higher than Ethiopia (Gini) • HDIs for women and children much lower than neighbouring countries (education, health, access to services). Many correlate with poverty; generally worse in rural areas • Child and maternal under-nutrition in acute and chronic forms are an enduring problem. • The majority of HH food is purchased, even in rural areas – access a major challenge. • Prone to droughts and floods - frequency and severity of climatic shocks is increasing. • Insecurity on-going challenge in SCS

  15. 2. The Macro Level ContextKey Conclusions for the Framework • Poverty is multidimensional and has both social and economic characteristics. • Women and children are particularly vulnerable; however others - elderly, disabled and youth - are also likely to be vulnerable but data for these groups does not exist. • Data is lacking but the situation is likely to be worse in South Central Somalia given the overlying shocks and access constraints. • There exist both chronic long-term and transient poverty and food insecurity. • There are multiple challenges to be addressed, a number of which correlate with income insecurity and which it will be important to consider in the design of social protection programmes; however it is unlikely that a single programme or even programmes can address all needs simultaneously.

  16. 3. Vulnerability Analysis

  17. 3. Vulnerability Analysis • Defining vulnerability • Trends in livelihoods and factors affecting vulnerability • Shocks and stresses • Coping strategies • Community analysis of vulnerability

  18. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.1 Defining Vulnerability Exposure to risk Vulnerability Capacity to deal with it Covariate Idiosyncratic Social and Economic

  19. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.2 Trends in Vulnerability of Livelihoods • Main drivers contributing to vulnerability of livelihoods: Environmental shocks, conflict, poor governance, marginalization and chronic poverty • Extensive economic hardship - vast majority of households in the study are low income. Collective purchasing power is low. • Number of major trends in livelihoods were identified • Increasing poverty and vulnerability affecting livelihoods in rural areas, on account of recurring climatic shocks and other constraints to livelihoods such as lack of economic opportunity. • Increasing economic migration and rapid urbanisation. • In South Central Somalia a major additional constraint is recent conflict and insecurity - a driver behind the growth of the population in the camps visited. • Some improvements to services however these remain grossly inadequate and inaccessible to the majority in rural areas and to IDP and poor communities in urban areas. Vicious cycle: these trends are a consequence of the underlying drivers and also further contribute to these drivers to increase vulnerability of livelihoods Affecting different groups in different ways

  20. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.2 Trends in Rural Livelihoods • Constraints to the founding principles of pastoralism that enable HH to deal with shock. • Reduction in herd sizes (livestock disease, recurrent droughts and general water scarcity, overgrazing and land use change) • Changes in herd composition – cattle all but vanished; some camels and – more often - small stock. • Access to rangeland is becoming constrained (land acquisition and fencing off of traditional communal grazing land for private use) => conflict • Chronic lack of alternative opportunities for productive livelihoods or employment. • Untapped potential of agriculture – little investment in agriculture - production low, with some considering that production over time has been declining. • Farming still water-dependent and exposed to the climatic trends mentioned above. Potentially more vulnerable since it is sedentary • Strong desire and attempts to diversify but limited options • Mainly peri-urban (teashops, trading, fodder production, Khat sale)

  21. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.2 Trends in migration and urbanisation • Increasing sedentarisation leading to more ‘urban‘ characteristics even in rural areas: • Increasing sedentarisation of pastoralists as a result of constraints to nomadic livelihoods and changes in herd size and composition. • Agro-pastoralists increasingly relying on a semi-sedentary household for agriculture with pastoral satellites. • Creation/expansion of overcrowded and impoverished informal ‘IDP’ settlements • Increasing migration to urban areas, particularly for pastoral HH in the north • Growth of IDP settlements in Mogadishu due to insecurity and seasonal shocks elsewhere in SCS (many from riverine areas) • Trend for HH to settle for long periods (lack of hope pastoralists v farmers SCS hope to return and attempting to do so – splitting of HH) • Out-migration of able bodied and (esp male) youth => high proportion of FHHH and dependent people remain in rural settlements • Includes overseas - Yemen, Ethiopia, Libya and on to Europe and the Middle East

  22. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.2 Trends in Urban Livelihoods • Primarily daily labourers – (construction and hauling, domestic servants) and petty trades (tea shops, hawking/street vendors, buying and selling milk, shoe shining, car washing and selling Khat). • Jobs are insecure and poorly paid and there is increasing competition as the influx to the cities continues. • IDPs face discrimination in the job market in competition with local people. • Markets and opportunities in the city can be far from IDP settlements and expensive to reach. • Households find it difficult to invest or diversify livelihoods as they lack the capital and skills (more acute for pastoral than farming backgrounds) • Begging increase (esp. Mogadishu – organised begging in groups) • Heterogeneity of IDP settlements depending on location and length of establishment

  23. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.2 Trends in HH labour • Women’s engagement in productive activities is increasing. • Women supporting the household to cope with crises. • In urban centres there are more economic opportunities available to and culturally appropriate for women. • In pastoral areas the increase in small stock is an asset in the care of women. • Effects: • Increasing burden of labour of women, since also caring for the household. Engaging in economic activity has not changed entrenched gender roles. • Girls expected to take on homemaker duties since mothers are working. • Rural: switch to small stock is disenfranchising young men. • Urban: men more dependent on their wives for economic support - tension in the household and divorce rates rising in IDP areas • Child labour also increasing – water scarcity; IDP areas (normalised in Mogadishu)

  24. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.2 Increasing Khat Consumption In both rural and urban areas the increasing, almost daily, consumption of Khat by men is acknowledged to be approaching epidemic proportions. • Almost every single young man interviewed chewed Khat. Some women. • Number of vendors on the street is growing. • Linked to the lack of economic opportunities available for young men • All discussions with women highlighted this as a growing issue and is contributing to women shouldering further burdens of labour

  25. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.2 Trends in Access to Services – Best case of NW shown here

  26. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.2 Trends in FNS • In comparison to years of drought, the level of hunger of the population has decreased. • However there is a generalised and chronic difficulty with accessing sufficient food • Urban areas • Inflation was mentioned as an increasing problem • Malnutrition was reportedly widespread in IDP camps as a result of lack of economic access to food. • Rural areas • seasonal variations in access to food were highlighted as contributing to spikes in malnutrition during dry seasons. • Besides access to food, women’s workload and care practices were mentioned as contributing to malnutrition and care practices and sanitation were mentioned in riverine. • Impacts considered to be most acutely felt among young children, the elderly and expectant mothers.

  27. 3.3 Shocks and stresses

  28. 3.3 Covariate shocks and stresses

  29. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.3 Idiosyncratic shocks • Children – malnutrition, malaria, measles, diarrhoea/waterborne diseases, respiratory diseases, TB, whooping cough • Women – urinary tract infections, malnutrition, malaria, pneumonia, anemia, eclampsia • Adults/Elderly - high blood pressure, diabetes, arthritis and back pain, strokes and eye diseases

  30. 3.4 Coping Strategies

  31. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.4 Coping Strategies

  32. 3.5 Community Analysis of Vulnerability

  33. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.5 Community Definitions of Vulnerabilty • Who are the poor: • Those households who cannot eat, or who have limited assets • Who are most vulnerable to shocks and who should be prioritised for assistance:  • The very poorest/destitute • Those people who cannot get help from other means such as from relatives • Those who cannot help themselves or are suffering most in almost all aspects of life, particularly health • children especially orphans; • people living with disabilities/illness, especially those without family support; • the elderly especially those without family support; • female headed households, especially widows without family support • Other vulnerable groups (though not prioritised as considered able bodied) • unemployed young people • minority clans

  34. 4.2 Vulnerability Analysis

  35. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.5 Challenges facing vulnerable groups

  36. 3. Vulnerability Analysis3.5 Challenges facing vulnerable groups

  37. 3. Vulnerability AnalysisKey conclusions for the framework • High levels of chronic poverty, exposure to recurrent and cyclical shocks, food and water insecurity, erosion of livelihoods, competition for jobs, erosion of people’s capacities to cope, and vulnerability to particular life cycle risks • strong rationale for establishing formal, long-term and predictable social protection to address chronic poverty/vulnerability, but be ‘topped up’ in the event of crisis • Need to address challenges in both urban and rural areas • Idiosyncratic lifecycle risks are common to all locations and livelihood groups - consistency in programming across Zones could be feasible. • Social protection cannot do everything – it is an essential component but many other things are needed to address the immediate and underlying causes of vulnerability. • Social protection should seek to address economic and social vulnerabilities. • Communities understand vulnerability as it relates to particular and clearly identifiable groups in the population, since such a large percentage of the community can be considered poor. This is a lesson for targeting. • Could be important not to bypass the needs of young people who have labour capacity but suffer from chronic lack of opportunity – particularly given the risk to future insecurity.

  38. 4. Mapping Social Protection

  39. 4.Mapping Social Protection4.1 Social protection from government

  40. 4. Mapping Social Protection4.2 Initiatives of development partners • Public works • Variety of initiatives underway in rural Somalia • cash and food for assets activities of FAO and WFP operating in UN JRS areas • activities operating under the NGO resilience consortium, SOMREP • **Lessons from evaluated FAO LIPW programme in SCS** • 2. Unconditional cash transfers • Variety of NGO initiatives. • The SOMREP and BRICS consortiums may have cash components though at present early stages and not well defined • ** Best lessons from the CVMG in SCS** • 3. Food-based assistance • Examples of WFP and partners • Also school feeding • Project based • Small scale relative to need • Not long-term and predictable • Some best practices/lessons

  41. 4. Mapping Social Protection4.2 Experiences of development partners: FAO

  42. 4. Mapping Social Protection4.2 Experiences of Development Partners - FAO • Recommendations going forward: • A programme based on the condition of work needs to provide parallel support for households who are vulnerable but cannot work. • Programme needs to identify the right geographical areas and ensure that targeting is based on need rather than clan, this requires an agency presence. • The ‘works’ component needs some further thought if the objective is to increase future resilience to shock rather than just create short-term employment. • Assets that would be most useful and most sustainable are likely to require investment in skills and machinery. • More thought needed to what FAO wants to achieve from public works and whether all objectives (employment, infrastructure and social protection for the vulnerable) can be met in one programme. • Seems that the instrument (cash for work) had been pre-determined and mandate-driven rather than need driven. The approach would benefit from a more in-depth understanding of livelihoods and vulnerability.

  43. 4. Mapping Social Protection4.2 Experiences of Development Partners - CVMG

  44. 4. Mapping Social Protection4.2 Experiences with Food Assistance - WFP • School feeding (WFP) • Most coverage - over 20% of primary schools across the country. • School meals and take home ration to girls • WFP considered has improved school attendance though no data to substantiate impact. • Programme ‘expensive to implement’ -transportation of procured food. • Some challenges voiced by communities – • In areas of water scarcity cannot cook it; teachers pulled out of school to try to manage solutions • Children who collect water at lunch hour miss out on meals • Cultural barriers to girl children eating with boys. • Food distribution • Continuing in various areas in Somalia through NGOs, most often with WFP. • Communities and Key Informants in government, donors and NGOs cited a good deal of antipathy and frustration toward continued provision of food aid in this context. • Food aid depressing local production. • Dissatisfaction with the quality and type of food provided • End up on the open market or given to animals

  45. 4. Mapping Social Protection4.3 Informal social protection

  46. 4.3 Mapping Social ProtectionConclusions for the framework • Major gaps in the formal social protection system relative to the level of need – though some best practices to build upon. • Cash is feasible. Major concerns about food aid raised by communities and government, depressing local production and should only be considered where markets not functioning. • Lack of evidence of impact of school feeding. • Difficult to combine social protection, employment and infrastructure objectives in a single programme and quality of infrastructure on LIPW means questionable sustainability • Framework must go beyond agency mandates to design the best programmes for needs. • Programmes should complement community assistance which is a vital coping strategy. • Programmes that align with the values and premises of traditional assistance (in terms of classification of vulnerability) are likely to be well understood • Formal transfers to these vulnerable groups are likely to reinforce traditional support systems, since those who usually require community assistance will instead be able to contribute to the system. • Community based targeting generated strong bias in selection - administration of social protection programmes should be cautious about the way communities are involved to minimise the risk of co-option of assistance by powerful interests to the expense of the vulnerable.

  47. 5. Enabling Environment

  48. 5. Enabling Environment 5.1 Potential for nationally owned SPF

  49. 5. Enabling Environment5.2 Administration and implementing partners Administrative processes on social transfer programme: communications; registration and enrolment of beneficiaries; establishing and maintaining the database; preparing monthly payment requests; monitoring; managing a grievance process While national and local government capacity being built, in all Zones some support to implementation will be required, and will be essential in SCS. • Government role: In the North it could be possible for district authorities to be directly involved in elements of the administration cycle. In SCS this is considered unlikely in the short-term and transitional programming required. • CSO role: civil society partners with expertise in cash transfer operations provide added value and support for administrative duties, with a plan for progressive transfer of responsibility (HSNP Kenya). Resilience consortia. But coordination challenges. • UN role: high level coordination, supporting CSOs to set up robust monitoring and accountability mechanisms, advocacy around governance and fundraising, and capacity development

  50. 5. Enabling Environment5.3 Implementing partners (payment provider) • International best practice to outsource payment services to a dedicated provider • Hawala money transfer system and mobile money transfer services have been used to successfully to deliver cash transfers • Mobile money transfer market in Somalia is one of the most rapidly expanding markets globally (GSMA) • Mobile money coverage is rapidly expanding and is already penetrating rural areas. In the areas visited on this study, penetration appeared greater than Hawala agents and almost all businesses are accepting e-money now • Difficult to extrapolate this up to national level – but different business model and impact than seen elsewhere, seems to becoming truly financially inclusive (even in Kenya people still cash out v here being used as true e-money) • It has potential to support households in the event of migration or displacement. • Globally, e-payments proven to be cheaper and more efficient for governments over time and most are transitioning. • Good practice to assess the relative merits through a tender. It may be that more than 1 provider is needed in at least in the first instance.

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