China’s One Child Policy: Inadvertent Demographic Consequences—Big Time

1. China’s One Child Policy:Inadvertent Demographic Consequences—Big Time Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute eberstadt@aei.org Testimony before the Lantos Commission on Human Rights U.S. House of Representatives November 10, 2009

2. What are the Unintended Adverse Consequences of Coercive Anti-natal Population Policy in China? 1) Unnatural Imbalances Between Males and Females, Today and Tomorrow: With Unpredictable Consequences 2) Coming Pressures on Manpower Availability and Labor Force Composition: The End of The Current Chinese Growth Formula 3) Acceleration of China’s Already-Rapid Pace of Population Aging—And Minimal Guarantees For China’s Impoverished Elderly 4) Speeding Radical Transformation of China’s Family Structure: Destination Unknown

3. What are the Unintended Adverse Consequences of Coercive Anti-natal Population Policy in China? 1) Unnatural Imbalances Between Males and Females

4. The Rise and Rise Of Gender Imbalance in ChinaSex Ratio of Births and Sex Ratio of the Population Age 0-4: China, 1953-2005 (boys per 100 girls) Source: Lavely, William. First Impressions of the 2000 Census of China. Available electronically at http://csde.washington.edu/pubs/wps/01-13.pdf, accessed 10/15/02. Unpublished data, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute for Population and Labor Economics, 2008.

5. Where Are The Girls?China’s Sex Ratio at Birth by Province, 2005 (boys per 100 girls) Source: 2005 China One Percent Population Survey.

6. Leave Nothing To Chance—After The First BirthSex Ratio at Birth by Parity:China, 1990, 2000, and 2005 Censuses (boys per 100 girls) Source: Judith Banister, “Shortage of Girls in China Today: Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solutions,” 2003. Shuzho Li, “Imbalanced Sex Ratios at Birth and Comprehensive Intervention in China,” (Conference Paper, Fourth Asia Pacific Conference on Reproductive and Sexual Health and Rights, United Nations Population Fund, Hyderabad, India, October 29-31, 2007).

7. Will Affluence “Cure” China’s Girl Shortage?Sex Ratio vs. GDP per Capita: China, 1953-2005 (boys per 100 girls) Sources: Lavely, William. First Impressions of the 2000 Census of China, Available electronically at http://csde.washington.edu/pubs/wps/01-13.pdf (accessed October 15, 2002). 2005 China One Percent Population Survey. Angus Maddison, “Per Capita GDP,” Historical Statistics for the World Economy: 1-2003 AD, table 3, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/ (accessed July 31, 2008).

8. Will Education “Cure” China’s Girl Shortage?Sex Ratio at Birth vs. Adult Female Illiteracy Rate by Province: China, 2005 Source: 2005 China One Percent Population Survey.

9. Dimensions of China’s Coming Bride ShortageEstimated And Projected Sex Ratio Ages 20-39 And Absolute Surplus of Males Ages 20-39:China, 2000-2030 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Friday, June 29, 2007; “medium variant” projections.

10. An Example of a Current Bride Shortage:Sex Ratios in Germany, Ages 18-34 (2004) Source: Steffen Kröhnert and Reiner Klingholz, Not am Mann: Von Helden der Arbeit zur neuem Unterschicht? Berlin-Institut, May 2007, http://www.berlin-institut.org/studien/not_am_mann.html (accessed December 12, 2007).

11. An Example of Current Correlates of Bride Shortage:Voting for Extreme Right Parties in Germany (2005) Source: Steffen Kröhnert and Reiner Klingholz, Not am Mann: Von Helden der Arbeit zur neuem Unterschicht? Berlin-Institut, May 2007, http://www.berlin-institut.org/studien/not_am_mann.html (accessed December 12, 2007).

12. What are the Unintended Adverse Consequences of Coercive Anti-natal Population Policy in China? 2) Mounting Pressures on Manpower Availability and Labor Composition

13. No Repeat Performances..Adult Population 15+ by Age Group: China, 1970-2030 (estimated and projected, thousands) Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Wednesday, May 13, 2009; 2:12:34 PM. Note: “medium variant” projections

14. Wanted: Young Trained TalentPopulation 15-24: China, 1970-2030(estimated and projected) Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, May 08, 2007; 8:46:22 AM.

15. What are the Unintended Adverse Consequences of Coercive Anti-natal Population Policy in China? 3) Accelerating China’s Population Aging— Rapid Graying Ahead for a Still-Poor Society

16. Beijing Forgot About This Population Explosion…Estimated and Projected Population Aged 65+:China, 1980-2030 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Wednesday, May 13, 2009; 2:12:34 PM. Note: “medium variant” projections

17. It’s Better To Be Old And Rich…Percent of population 65+ vs. Per capita GDP (PPP): China and Selected Other Countries, 1950-2005 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Monday, January 26, 2009; 3:31:49 PM; Angus Maddison, “Per Capita GDP PPP (in 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars),” Historical Statistics for the World Economy: 1-2006 AD, table 3, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/ (accessed January 27, 2009). Taiwan Population: Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of China (Taiwan), “Table 10. Age-specific distribution of population, dependency ratio,index of aging and median age”, available at http://eng.dgbas.gov.tw/lp.asp?CtNode=2351&CtUnit=1072&BaseDSD=36.

18. The Shape of Things To Come In China’s ProvincesProjected Population Structure, 2025:Japan (un-shaded) vs. Heilongjiang Province, China (shaded) Male Female Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbagg (accessed July 31, 2008), And U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, unpublished projections.

19. Quick, What Makes US Social Security Look Like Fort Knox?Coverage and Actuarial Balances of Current Public Pension System: USA, Japan, China (percent) Notes: 1. Proportion of fully insured persons 20+ in OASDI, 2008. 2. Mandatory participation of persons 20+ in basic plan. 3. Estimates for burden post-2000 round of reforms. Sources: China: Loraine A. West and Daniel Goodkind, “Population Aging and Social Safety Nets in China: Factors and Trends Affecting Policy Trade-Offs.” U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, April 2003 (unpublished paper); Japan: Hamid Faruqee and Martin Muehleiser, “Population Aging in Japan: Demographic and Fiscal Sustainability,” IMF Working Paper WP/01/40, April 2001, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp0140.pdf USA: Derived from U.S. Social Security Administration, Annual Statistical Supplement 2008 (March 2009), Table 4.c5, http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/supplement/2008/4c.html; 2009 OASDI Trustees Report (March 24, 2004), Table VI.F4 and Chapter II.D, http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2009

20. Who Will Take Care of Grandma in China? Percentage of Age-60 Chinese Women with No Born Sons by Year of Her 60th Birthday: Illustrative Calculations Notes: Calculations are illustrative, based upon simplifying assumptions: 1. Reported parity distributions in 1990 census are accurate; 2. SRB as in previous graphic; 3. SRB not parity-specific; 4. Childbearing completed by age 35 for the 2025 cohort of 60-year old women; 5) Posits the following distribution of childbearing for the 2025 cohort of 60-year-old women: no children, 3%; one child, 25%; two children, 65%; three or more children, 7%. Sources: Derived from Feeney et. al. 1993, op cit; China National Bureau of Statistics 2002, op cit.

21. What are the Unintended Adverse Consequences of Coercive Anti-natal Population Policy in China? 4) Speeding The Radical Transformation of China’s Family Structure

22. 2500 Years Of Family Tradition Comes To An EndProportion of single children in China, 2011-2030:Adult Population, ages 25-49 years (%, projected), Source: Guo Zhigang, Liu Jintang, Song Jian, “Birth policy and family structure in the future,” Chinese Journal of Population Science 2002(1): 1-11.

23. How Do You Say “Necropolis” in Chinese?Recent (2000) vs. Projected (2040) Population Structure of Beijing Source: Baochang Gu, “Low Fertility in China: Trends, Policy, and Impact” (Presentation paper, Seminar on Fertility Transition in Asia: Opportunities and Challenges, United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, December 18-20, 2006), http://www.unescap.org/esid/psis/meetings/FertilityTransition/Gu-China%20_SFTA10.pdf (accessed April 17, 2008).