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Forecast for 2011-12 Winter

Forecast for 2011-12 Winter. George H. Taylor, CCM October, 2011. Current Conditions. Long-term Trends in Tropical Pacific Indicators. Analog Matches. In terms of PDO conditions, the best analog matches were 1933, 1961, 2001, and 2008.

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Forecast for 2011-12 Winter

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  1. Forecast for 2011-12 Winter George H. Taylor, CCM October, 2011

  2. Current Conditions

  3. Long-term Trends inTropical Pacific Indicators

  4. Analog Matches In terms of PDO conditions, the best analog matches were 1933, 1961, 2001, and 2008. In terms of MEI, the best matches were 1967,1989, 1996, 1999 and 2008. Overall the best match was 2008.

  5. There’s no sunshine in the skies todayIt’s gonna rain, rain, rain ‘til the month of MayI guess you say, why do I get wet today?La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

  6. There’ll be soooo much snow in the mountains this yearAnd lowland flooding, baby, is something to fearI guess you say, why is there a flood today?La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

  7. It’s gonna be a dry, dry winter down in LADrought in Arizona, and all along the Southern WayI guess you say, why is it so dry today?La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

  8. Talkin’ ‘bout La Niña….There’s no sunshine in the skies today, it’s La Niña,It might even flood today, La NiñaTalkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout La Niña

  9. Bottom Line • Rather benign early season, with very active December - February • Above-average mountain snowfall for the winter; average ski season opening date • Significant precipitation totals with possibility of flooding • Cooler than average temperatures • Slightly below average precipitation • Good chance of low elevation snow (esp. January)

  10. In a nutshell: A slow start but making up for lost time!

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