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Can Computers Compete With Human Experience?

Explore the capabilities and limitations of artificial intelligence in decision-making, behavior analysis, market prediction, data mining, and emotion interpretation. Discover how humans and machines can find a common ground for seamless interaction.

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Can Computers Compete With Human Experience?

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  1. Can Computers Compete With Human Experience? Gaye Banfield GayeBanfield@bpp.com

  2. We have come along way since Eliza & The Doctor? • Intelligent decision-making - AIs analyse information from hundreds of data sources making key decisions • Behaviour-based search are used extensively in online shopping • AIs predicts market movements using huge quantities of historical data – Algorithmic Trading • Data mining to your digital personality– web-scraping - looking at a person's word choice, work history • AI-enabled videos interpreting a person's facial expressions and word choices

  3. But we aren’t quite there yet? • Bad decisions on dodgy data • GBP Flash Crash blamed on an over zealous AI • How to spoof a market • NYSE steps in • AIs in overdrive • Knight Capital & the NYSE • Never assume • PVDMI incorrect classification • Only good as the data – false positives • HSBC voice recognition problems

  4. Human intelligence= intuition + consciousness + emotion intuition consciousness emotion

  5. Gut Feeling • The ability to know things without consciously reasoning • Draws on past knowledge and experience • As a process it happens suddenly • Does not follow logical thinking • People with knowledge and experience are able to apply gut feeling better than novice people

  6. Evidence for Gut Feeling • Financial traders are better at reading their ‘gut feelings’ than the general population – and the better they are at this ability, the more successful they are as traders ReferenceKandasamy, N, Garfinkel, SN, Page, L et al. Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor. Scientific Reports; 19 Sept 2016; DOI: 10.1038/srep32986 • Top Athletes - “The new sports battleground is no longer about the value of a stats approach vs. a traditional one. Most teams by now realize that blending the two offers a better shot at winning.” Reference https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/athletes-coaches-trying-to-find-balance-between-analytics-and-gut-feeling/

  7. The End Game • To have humans and machines seamlessly interacting there needs to be a common, pseudo-emotional, understanding • Need AIs with more ‘gut feeling’ about them “If we focus on conscious mind and model it as a piece of software we will conclude that humans are doomed. But, if we recognize that body and brain act as a single functioning unit…then we will also recognize how exquisitely we are constructed for rapid pattern recognition. Humans can indeed compete against the machines.” John Coates ex-trader, neuroscientist

  8. AI & Gut Feeling Input +Process + Learn = Output Agent Environment Input Critic Output Process Feedback • Input/State is the opponent’s previous action (or biological feedback) • Output/Action is the network’s action (behaviour) There is no memory of past rewards and no mechanism for estimating future rewards - myopic.

  9. Modelling the End Game NN EC FS QC AI Gut Feel Computational Intelligence Paradigms modelling Gut Feeling

  10. To Summarize • No decision we make is entirely rational • There is some emotional input involved • Minimizing emotion comes with time and experience • Sharpening your intuition, your gut feeling also comes with time and experience • Combining logic, data, and gut feeling are bound to make for better decisions

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