Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety

1. Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety Alan E. Pisarski Stakeholder Workshop August 25-26, 2010

2. Transportation is the collision of demography with geography DEMOGRAPHY GEOGRAPHY TRANSPORTATION

3. DEMOGRAPHY GEOGRAPHY TRANSPORTATION

4. DEMOGRAPHY GEOGRAPHY TRANSPORTATION ECONOMY TECHNOLOGY Leavened by technology and the economy

5. A Quick Look at: • Demography is Destiny • Licensing and Vehicle Ownership • Travel Behavior and Activity • Truck Freight • Implications for Safety

6. Demography The Pre-labor Force Age Group Labor Force Age Group Post Labor Force Age Group OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

7. The Old “Watch Out” School of Planning Doesn’t Apply Any More • Watch Out! Here They Come! • There will be no Deluge of: • Young Population • New Cars • New Drivers (First Time Women Drivers) • Vmt • But – Maybe of: • Immigrant Drivers and • Older Drivers Continuing to Work/Drive • In Many Ways More Operable

8. Not Much Growth to Drive VMT

9. Half of Growth in Aged Pop will be Safety Challenge

10. Only Small Increases in Potential New Driver Population • Holds constant at 1.4% of pop til 2011 or so then drops to 1.3% of the pop thru 2050. • About 400,000 16 year olds added each decade; except the coming decade where less than 300,000 are added.

11. End of the Worker Boom • 1980-90: 18.5 Million • 1990-2000: 13.3 Million • 2000-2010: NEGATIVE • Our problem may be too few commuters not too many!

12. Where will the workers come from? It could matter greatly.

13. A New Role For Older Workers Alan E. Pisarski

14. A Possible 11 to 13 Million Workers over 65 by 2030 *Census Projections ^ Authors Estimates

15. The Tools of Travel Licenses • Saturation in all ages • Women’s gains • Immigrants Vehicles • Stability • Aging fleet • Workers = Drivers IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND ?

16. Women will close the licensing gap Men will live longer

17. Cars per Household – 48 Year Trend Households in thousands Alan E. Pisarski

18. Why Vehicle Ownership Matters – Work Travel Alan E. Pisarski

19. Household Workers and Vehicles • In one worker hh 93% have one or more vehicles • In two worker hh 87% have two or more • In three + worker hh 74% have three or more

20. Stable Vehicle Ownership Shares into the Future Only 4.4% of workers in household with no vehicle 2008

21. Consumer Spending on Vehicles Declining Since 2003-2005 Fewer vehicles? Older vehicles? More used vehicles?

22. Travel • Fewer Trips • Trip lengths stable • Travel times stable • VMT slow growth • But, long distance travel boomlet? Is it the Economy or the Trend?

23. The Role of the Work Trip has Diminished with Time

24. Trip-making down recentlypreliminary NHTSA

25. Mode Shares to Work are Stable

26. As Women’s Jobs Became More Like Men’s their Work Travel Became More Like Men’s! – Differences are Less Extreme

27. Vehicle trip and VMT distribution by Purpose (2009 NHTSA –preliminary)

28. Average Trip Length by Purpose(2009 NHTSA -- preliminary)

29. Note: 20% of VMT is in trips over 50 miles

30. Where People Spend their Time

31. Immigrant Work Mode Trend A NEGATIVE SAFETY TREND?

32. Only Above a Thousand Miles Does Air Travel Win Marketshare Source: American Travel Survey 1995

33. THE ECONOMY AND TRAVEL • Declining shares of spending to transportation (housing?) • Less focus on new vehicles • Fuels impacts on costs • Fewer workers = less travel spending? • But, a boom in tourism? IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND?

34. Major Transportation-Related Trends Source: Energy Outlook, DOE

35. Travel Grows With Income Annual Trips per HH by Income LevelDoesn’t Have to Mean More Crashes Future

36. How do we spend our transportation money? • Dominant factor (94%) is acquisition, use and care of vehicles • Purchased transportation (6%) = anything you buy a ticket for: air, cruise, transit (13% of 6%), taxi • Un-reimbursed Consumer expenditure survey BLS 2008

37. Transportation Spending is All about Workers Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2008

38. We are Spending Less on Transportation This Decade

39. Density and Distribution • Pace of change has slowed • Suburban growth pattern continues • Large metro growth is the key but … Is it the Economy or the Trend?

41. Suburban Growth Continues but Economy has Slowed Moves • 35 million people moved from 2007 to 2008; down from 40 million in 2005-2006 • The mover rate dropped below 12%; lowest ever recorded (started 1948) • In met areas over a million pop suburban share: • was 51.3% in 2000 • now at 52.5% in 2008; • gained 66% of the growth to 2008 Census DomesticMobility Study

42. National Commuting Flows – More Circumferential Travel

43. Mode Usage to Work by Flow Type

44. Before 8 it’s a Guy Thing! Many in Long Distance Carpools - More Early Driving

45. The Focus will be on Big Metros • Metros over a million • 1960 34 areas • 1990 39 areas • 2000 50 areas • 2005 53 areas • Probably 60 areas by 2020 • 60% of population • 12 areas with more than 5 meg. • 1/3 of national pop.; 100 meg. • Growth is in exurb areas

46. Freight • Increasing tons, vehicles and value • Increasing truck shares • Prospect of larger vehicles • More hazardous materials • Non-driver fatalities

47. Truck Freight’s Role is Massive Freight facts and figures, 2008

48. Share of VMT by Road System Freight Story 2008

49. The Hazardous Materials Role as well Freight Facts and Figures 2008

50. Truck Related Fatalities