Whither California? Russell Hancock 4 November 2009

1. Whither California? Russell Hancock 4 November 2009

3. Disneyland Opening Day 1955

4. California’s Population Growth 1900-2010

5. California’s Population Growth Projected Source: Public Policy Institute of California

6. California by Ethnicity 1990 Source: Public Policy Institute of California

7. California by Ethnicity 2010 Source: Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network and Public Policy Institute of California

8. California by Ethnicity, 2000 United States by Ethnicity, 2000 Source: United States Census Bureau

9. California by Ethnicity 2040 projected Source: Public Policy Institute of California

10. One Example: California Prisons

11. From 1970-2000 the crime rate rose higher than the rate of population. Today California has 115,000 convicts. After a $3.4 billion construction spree, the prisons are more crowded than before.

12. Another example: Transportation Infrastructure

13. Transportation in California Demand vs. Capacity Source: Public Policy Institute of California, Caltrans

15. Third example: California’s Schools

16. California’s Per-pupil Spending relative to National Average, 1969-2000

17. Fourth example: Water

18. Massive Population Growth Burgeoning Demand Undisciplined Spending Shrinking Economy Fiscal Conservatism Neopopulist Constraints

19. Question we must ask: Does California have good institutions in place to provide thoughtful solutions and statesmanlike leadership?

20. No. We’re plagued by dysfunction. Dysfunction in Sacramento. Dysfunction in California’s regions. Dysfunction in the electorate.

21. Dysfunction in Sacramento

22. California State Assembly Summer 2009

23. Dysfunction in our regions.

24. Dysfunction in the electorate

25. Problem: Ideological Divide, Gridlock Solution: Re-districting Open Primaries

26. Problem: Budgetary Gridlock Solution: Relax super-majority requirement

27. Problem: Term Limits Solution: 16 years total, any house

28. Problem: Budgetary Woes Possible Solution: Spending matches revenues Pay-as-you-go funding Initiatives must specify source Peg tax to stable sources Spikes go into reserve Mandatory set-asides New model for business activity

29. Problem: Fractured State-Local Relationship Possible Solution: Restore rule of separation Prop 13 funds allocated locally

30. Problem: Proliferation of Initiatives Possible Solution: Higher threshold for qualification Must specify revenue source

31. Problem: Questionable Effectiveness of Government programs Possible Solution: Performance-based budgeting

32. What’s the fastest way to achieve reforms such as these?

33. A Constitutional Convention?

34. The California Constitution • 140 years old • 75,000 words • Amended 500 times The United States Constitution • 220 years old • 4,500 words • Amended 17 times

35. Why such a dramatic step? Incrementalism doesn’t respect the crisis we are in. “Single-subject” rule doesn’t allow full slates to come before voters. “Revisions” can only be authorized by the Legislature or through a convention.

36. How do you convene a constitutional convention? Proposition One Provides California voters the right to convene a convention. Proposition Two Calls for a constitutional convention in 2011.

37. How would the delegates be selected? Three possibilities: Election Appointment Random selection

38. How do you prevent a runaway convention? • Ballot will specify a “limited” convention: • Budget reform • Election reform • State-local fiscal relationship reforms • Government oversight mechanisms

39. Moderating forces on the convention: Delegates not beholden to interest groups Highly public deliberations Outcome will be placed back on the ballot for approval

40. Who supports the convention approach? Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Dan Walters, Sacramento Bee Dan Weintraub, Sacramento Bee Numerous legislators Velasquez Institute San Jose Mercury News The Economist New York Times San Diego Union-Tribune San Francisco Chronicle Los Angeles Times Contra Costa Times San Francisco Business Times Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal Fresno Bee New American Foundation Bay Area Council Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network Common Cause Courage Campaign The Guardian The Times Standard Irish Times Ventura County Star Santa Maria Times The Bond Buyer Peter Schrag Chico Enterprise-Record Sacramento Bee La Opinion CalBuzz Fresno Bee Forbes (partial list)

41. What do voters think? 69% support Proposition 1 71% support Proposition 2 14% “state on right track” 77% “state on wrong track” 73% of voters age 18-35 support 71% of voters age 65- support 70% low-propensity voters support 80% Latinos support 70% Republicans support 71% Democrats support 63% support if held today, no additional information Poll of 1000 registered California voters, conducted by EMC Research, September 8-13, 2009.

42. How do I find out more? www.repaircalifornia.org

43. Some men look at constitutions with sanctimonious reverence and deem them like the ark of the covenant, too sacred to be touched. But governments are always in their stock of information a century or two behind the intelligent part of mankind, and have interests against touching old institutions. Can one generation bind another and all others forever? I think not. We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him when a boy. The Creator has made the earth for the living, not the dead. Each generation has the right to choose for itself the form of government it believes most promotive of its own happiness, to accommodate to the circumstances in which it finds itself. Thomas Jefferson

44. Thank you for engaging this subject! Russell Hancock hancock@jointventure.org