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Green&Gold Fund

Recommendation: Buy Verisk Analytics (VRSK). Green&Gold Fund. Why is there a market for risk solutions?. Secular risk trends Exposure in risk transactions are increasing Number of participants is large and asymmetry of information among participants is substantial

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Green&Gold Fund

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  1. Recommendation: Buy Verisk Analytics (VRSK) Green&Gold Fund

  2. Why is there a market for risk solutions? • Secular risk trends • Exposure in risk transactions are increasing • Number of participants is large and asymmetry of information among participants is substantial • Failure to understand risk can lead to large and rapid declines in financial performance

  3. Verisk Company Profile • Verisk is the leading provider of risk management solutions and analytics to the insurance, mortgage, and healthcare industries. • Helps customers understand, evaluate, and weigh the consequences of risk • Segments of VRSK’s business • Risk Assessment • Decision Analytics

  4. Risk Assessment & Decision Analytics • Risk Assessment • Revenue were $140.5M in 2Q11, grew revenue 4.6% Y/Y, 43% of VRSK • Provides statistical, actuarial, and underwriting data for the US Property & Casualty (P&C) insurance industry • Very stable, slower growing • 84% of business is subscription and long term agreement based • Decision Analytics • Revenue were$186.8M in 2Q11, grew revenue 26.7% Y/Y (12.5% organic), 57% of VRSK • Provides analytic solutions by combining algorithms and analytic methods, which incorporate VRSK’s proprietary data to help customers in Insurance, Mortgage, Healthcare, and Supply chain • Very dynamic, fast growing, increasing acquisitions & international exposure • 58% of revenue is subscription based

  5. VRSK: Driving Customer Value

  6. Sources of Data • Customers who also use the solutions created by VRSK’s data • Agreements with data contributors in which the particular uses of data are specified • “Mining” data found inside transactions supported by VRSK’s solutions • Source data from public sources including Federal, State, and Local governments • Physically gathering data at the request of property insurers • Purchasing data from data aggregators under contract • Historically, VRSK’s costs to source data are < 2% of revenues

  7. VRSK’s Competitive Position in P&C • No competitor can rival the breadth and depth of data • Data is key, because the more data, the easier it is to draw conclusions from valid and precise trends • Verisk is embedded into the insurance company's structure, software, systems

  8. VRSK Foundation: Data and Analytics

  9. VRSK’s Insurance Market Share • US Customers • All of the top 100 P&C insurance providers • 4 of the 10 largest Blue Cross Blue Shield plans • 4 of the 6 leading mortgage insurers • 14 of the top 20 mortgage lenders • The 10 largest global reinsurers

  10. VRSK Valuation

  11. VRSK Investment Information 6 Month Price Graph (StockCharts)

  12. SWOT Analysis • SWOT analysis, and how each point impacts company EPS/valuation multiple

  13. Investment Thesis • We should own Verisk Analytics now because of it’s profitable subscription based revenue streams, strong pricing power, rapid Analytics expansion, and the secular trends today of increasing risk based management and analytics in the P&C Insurance, Mortgage, Healthcare, and Supply-chain industries. • Potential catalysts are acquisitions, organic growth in both Risk Assessment and Decision Analytics, and share buybacks.

  14. Portfolio Placement / Recommendation • Sector : Financials • Industry Group: Insurance • Current Holdings: XLF, GE, ASPS • Target Sector Allocation: 10.47%, $47,989 • Current Sector Allocation: 6.80%, $31,168 • Remaining Allocation: 3.67%, $16,821 • BUY 200 shares of VRSK at a Limit Price of $33 ($6600, 1.44% of portfolio), Set another limit order for 200 shares at $31 • 2012 year end target price: $45.00

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