1 / 40

The Semiannual Economic Forecast

The Semiannual Economic Forecast. May 8, 2012 ISM Business Survey Committees. Agenda. Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD Manufacturing Semiannual Forecast Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM Non-Manufacturing Semiannual Forecast

roland
Télécharger la présentation

The Semiannual Economic Forecast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Semiannual Economic Forecast May 8, 2012 ISM Business Survey Committees

  2. Agenda • Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD Manufacturing Semiannual Forecast • Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM Non-Manufacturing Semiannual Forecast • Dr. Ray Perryman, The Perryman Group • Q & A

  3. The Report On Business® • Surveying manufacturing since 1931 • Approximately 350 respondents • 18 NAICS categories • Weighted by contribution to GDP • Non-manufacturing started in June 1998 • Approximately 350 respondents • 18 NAICS categories • Weighted by contribution to GDP

  4. Global PMI

  5. Percent of Normal Capacity April 2012 81.6% December 2011 79.2% April 2011 83.2 % Manufacturing Semiannual ForecastCurrent Operating Rate Manufacturing

  6. Production Capacity Change Reported for 2011 April 2012 + 5.2% December 2011 + 5.6% Production Capacity Mfg December 2011 +4.6% Predicted for 2012 Production Capacity Mfg

  7. Capital Expenditures Predicted2012 vs. 2011 Capital Expenditures Mfg April 2012+6.2% December 2011 + 1.9%

  8. Purchase Price Changes Reported April 2012 vs. End 2011 Price Changes Mfg April 2012+ 1.9% Predicted End 2012 vs. End 2011 Price ChangesMfg April 2012 + 2.3%

  9. Predicted Employment Change Predicted End 2012 vs. April 2012 Employment Changes Mfg April 2012 + 1.4% Predicted End 2012 vs. End 2011 Employment Changes Mfg December 2011 + 1.3%

  10. Business Revenues (nominal) Predicted 2012 vs. 2011 Business Revenues Mfg April 2012 + 4.5% December 2011 + 5.5%

  11. Predicted Increase in Business Revenues by Industry Manufacturing 1. Apparel, Leather & Allied Products 2. Machinery 3. Primary Metals 4. Petroleum & Coal Products 5. Plastics & Rubber Products 2012 vs. 2011

  12. PMI 2002 – April 2012

  13. PMI Annual AverageRelative to Midpoint of 50 2011 Average: 55.2% 2012 Average (through April): 53.7%

  14. Manufacturing PMIApril 2012 Index: 54.8%

  15. Manufacturing New Orders April 2012 Index: 58.2%

  16. Manufacturing Production April 2012 Index: 61.0%

  17. Manufacturing Employment April 2012 Index: 57.3%

  18. Manufacturing Inventories April 2012 Index: 48.5%

  19. Manufacturing Supplier Deliveriesand Prices April 2012 Prices Index: 61.0% April 2012 Supplier Deliveries Index: 49.2%

  20. Percent of Normal Capacity April 2012 85.2% December 2011 85.2% April 2011 83.7% Non-Manufacturing Semiannual ForecastCurrent Operating Rate Non-Manufacturing

  21. Production Capacity Change Reported for 2011 April 2012 + 3.3% December 2011 + 3.2% Production Capacity Non-Mfg December 2011 + 1.1% Predicted for 2012 Production Capacity Non-Mfg

  22. Capital Expenditures Predicted2012 vs. 2011 Capital Expenditures Non-Mfg April 2012 + 3.6% December 2011 + 0.1%

  23. Purchase Price Changes Reported April 2012 vs. End 2011 Price Changes Non-Mfg April 2012 + 1.8% Predicted End 2012 vs. End 2011 Price Changes Non-Mfg April 2012 + 2.6%

  24. Predicted Employment Change Predicted End 2012 vs. April 2012 Employment Changes Non-Mfg April 2012+ 1.9% Predicted End 2012 vs. End 2011 Employment ChangesNon-Mfg December 2011 + 1.1%

  25. Business Revenues (nominal) Predicted 2012 vs. 2011 Business Revenues Non-Mfg April 2012 + 4.8% December 2011 + 3.1%

  26. Predicted Increase in Business Revenues by Industry Non-Manufacturing 1. Information 2. Mining 3. Finance & Insurance 4. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 5. Other Services 2012 vs. 2011

  27. NMI January 2008-April 2012

  28. Comparison of PMI and NMI 2008-April 2012

  29. NMI Annual AverageAnnual Average Relative to Midpoint of 50 2011 Average: 54.5% 2012 Average (through April): 55.9%

  30. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity IndexAnnual Average Relative to Midpoint of 50 2011 Average: 57.3% 2012 Average (through April): 58.9%

  31. Non-Manufacturing Business ActivityApril 2012 Index: 54.6%

  32. Non-Manufacturing New Orders April 2012 Index: 53.5%

  33. Non-Manufacturing Inventories April 2012 Index: 54.0%

  34. Non-Manufacturing Employment April 2012 Index: 54.2%

  35. Non-Manufacturing Supplier Deliveriesand Prices April 2012 Prices Index: 53.6% April 2012 Supplier Deliveries Index: 51.5%

  36. Manufacturing SectorSummary • Operating rate is currently 81.6% of normal capacity. • Production capacity is expected to increase 5.2% in 2012. • Capital expenditures are expected to increase 6.2% in 2012. • Prices paid increased 1.9% through the end of April 2012. • Prices are expected to increase a total of 2.3% for all of 2012, indicating an expected increase in prices of 0.4% for the remainder of the year.

  37. Manufacturing SectorSummary (continued) • Manufacturing employment is expected to increase 1.4% during the remainder of 2012. • Manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 4.5% in 2012. • Overall, manufacturing is expected to grow moderately in 2012.

  38. Non-Manufacturing SectorSummary • Operating rate is currently 85.2% of normal capacity. • Production capacity is expected to increase 3.3% in 2012. • Capital expenditures are expected to increase 3.6% in 2012. • Prices paid increased 1.8% through the end of April 2012. • Prices are expected to increase an additional 0.8% over the remainder of the year, for a total 2012 increase of 2.6%.

  39. Non-Manufacturing SectorSummary (continued) • Non-manufacturing employment is expected to increase 1.9% during the balance of 2012. • Non-manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 4.8% in 2012. • Overall, non-manufacturing is expected to continue growing in 2012.

  40. Dr. Ray Perryman, The Perryman Group

More Related