ERTAC

1. ERTAC

2. Presentation Overview • Process Overview and Timelines • Inputs • Algorithm Details • Results • Outstanding issues

3. 1. Process Overview and Timelines What is the ERTAC Growth Committee? Criteria for product Committee structure Progress & Timeline

4. What are we trying to accomplish ? • Develop Methodology to Create EGU FY Emission Inventories that meets certain criteria: • Conservative predictions of unit activity • Relies primarily on state knowledge of unit retirement, fuel switching & controls • Can be re-run iteratively to look a variety of scenarios • Transparent • Inexpensive • Relies on base year activity data • Flexible

5. Why are certain states in yellow? Are they participating in ETAC EGU? ERTAC EGU Growth • Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee • Collaboration: • NE, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Lake Michigan states • Industry • Multi-jurisdictional organizations

6. Subcommittees and Co-Chairs • ERTAC EGU Growth Committee Co-chairs: • Laura Mae Crowder, WV DEP • Bob Lopez, WI DE • Danny Wong, NJ DEP • Four Subcommittees and Leads: • Implementation/Mark Janssen, LADCO: Create logic for software • Growth/Bob Lopez, WI & Laura Mae Crowder, WV: Regional specific growth rates for peak and off peak • Data Tracking/Wendy Jacobs, CT: Improve default data to reflect state specific information • Renewables & Conservation Programs/Danny Wong, NJ & Laura Boothe, NC: Characterize programs not already included in growth factors

7. State Involvement • Regional lead identified per RPO to coordinate their state review of model and inputs. • EGU representative identified in each state for QA of the input files. • These representatives will also review the output to provide guidance • If Future Year (FY) emission goals are not met given known controls, states will indicate what strategy will be applied to meet the goal.

8. Progress So Far .... • Model Development: • Methodology created, documentation crafted • Preprocessor & projection running on Linux and Windows (GA, VA, MARAMA, IN, NJ, OTC) • Developing postprocessing software • Estimating Growth in Generation: • Growth rates and regions defined • Updating with current Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2012

9. Progress So Far .... • Input File Development: • Unit file and future controls file reviewed by states • Cap files are being converted to use CAIR caps • Further state input ongoing • Results: • Ran through first iterations of the postprocessor • Distributed to member states for review

10. ERTAC Timeline

11. Data Importation Inputs Preprocessing Growth Rates

12. ERTAC Inputs • Starting Point: BY CAMD activity data • Gross load hourly data, unit fuel, unit type, location • Units categorized by: • Fuel Type [Boiler Gas, Oil, Simple Cycle, Combined Cycle, Coal] • Region [AEO regions (e.g. MACE, LILC, WOMS)] • States review provides known new units, controls, retirements, fuel switches, etc • EIA AEO growth factors • NERC peak growth factors

13. Preprocessing Functions • Data Edit Checks • Unit availability file • Controls file • Growth rates file • BY hourly CAMD data • Removes non-EGUS • Determines hourly temporal hierarchy • Based on regional hourly GL • Important for load distribution and growth rates

14. Preprocessing Functions • Assigns hourly usage profile for FY to new units • Assesses partial year reporting units • Creates unit hierarchies for growth distribution • For every hour, calculates load specific values by region and fuel/unit type • Retired generation • New unit generation • Existing generation • Calculates “non peak” growth rates “Load specific values” seems vague, what do we mean by that? Add page numbers

15. Growth Rates • Peak GR = 1.07 • Annual GR = 0.95 • Transition hours of 200 & 2,000 • Non Peak GR = 0.9328 (calculated)

16. Growth Rates (GR) • Hour specific growth rates allow program to adjust temporal profile of unit based on regional and fuel/unit type hourly growth profiles • Resulting FY profile might different from BY • Provides ability to understand effects of peak episodic GR and control programs on air quality • AEO Growth combined with NERC peak growth • Peak Growth – First 200 hour in hierarchy • Transition growth – 200-2000 hours in hierarchy • Non-peak growth – last remaining hours in hierarchy out to 8760 hours. • Combined factor is further adjusted to account for: • Retirements & new units.

17. The evolution of growth rates from AEO2010 annual to hourly

18. 3. Algorithm Details Regional modularity Adjusted FY Growth Rates Excess generation pool Generic units New Unit Utilization Spinning Reserve

19. Regional Modularity • Each ERTAC region analyzed independently • Reserve analyzed on a regional basis • Algorithm determines if capacity has been met for each hour for the region and fuel/unit type For all ERTAC Regions Spinning Reserve For all Fuel/Type Bins Assign generation Analyze capacity versus demand Use new units

20. Adjusted Future Year Growth Rates (AFYGR), Hour Specific • For every region and fuel/unit type, each hour has a variable value for: • Total FY Load (Hour Specific GR * BY Load=FY Gen) • Total Retired Generation (RetGen) • Total New Unit Generation (NU Gen) • GR for each hour adjusted before application to existing unit hourly BY loads! AFYGR = (FY Generation – NU Gen) (BY Generation – RetGen)

21. Excess Generation Pool • If unit growth exceeds capacity • Unit is limited to capacity • Demand beyond capacity added to the excess generation pool for that hour/region/ fuel/unit type bin • The pool is distributed to other units in unit allocation hierarchy order • Units receive power up to optimal threshold or max capacity in two distribution loops • Power distribution ceases when pool is depleted or all units are at capacity (generic unit must be created to meet demand)

22. New Generic Units • Added to meet demand • Utilization determined on a fuel/unit type basis, similar to new state supplied units • Receive unmet demand • Size/location of generic units adjustable • FY temporal profile assigned by region and fuel/unit type • If a generic unit is added, the allocation hierarchy is recalculated and the loop begins at the first hour Begin at first hour in the hierarchy Does capacity meet demand? First/next hour in the hierarchy N Add generic unit Reallocate unit order Y

23. New Unit Utilization • New units receive generation from the excess generation pool • Annual power production limited by default or state input • Temporal profile based on similar unit (mimic) —program allows user to change the “mimic” unit • New units (generic and state supplied) are high in utilization relative to other similar units because assumed to be: • Very efficient • Very clean • Variables assigned to region and fuel/unit type characteristics are adjustable

24. Spinning Reserve check • Following assignment of generation • Check if reserve capacity is available for each hour in each region • If in any hour there is not reserve capacity equal 100% of the capacity of the largest unit operating of any fuel type, a flag is raised Is unused capacity > reserve capacity ? Alert: More capacity needed N Determine reserve capacity needs for that hour First/next hour Y

25. Results Output Examples Runtime

26. Output/Results • Future year hourly activity • Heat input (mmbtu) • Gross load (MW) • SO2 emissions (lbs) • NOx emissions (lbs) • File includes 8,760 hours for each: • Existing unit that is not retired • New state supplied unit • New generic unit created by the code • Summary files • Post-projection processing: graphs, more summaries, etc

27. Output from ERTAC EGU V1 • Unit level • Overall output

28. Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MWAnnual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012

29. Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW (zoom in view)Annual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012 Something wrong with the X axis

30. Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW – SO2 ControlAnnual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012

31. Example: Combined Cycle New Unit, 300 MWAnnual GR= 0.904, Peak GR=1.2, Nonpeak GR=0.901

32. Example: Simple Cycle Existing Unit, 53 MWAnnual GR=1.39, Peak GR=1.549, Nonpeak GR=1.377

33. Post-projection Processing Graphical Output – Page 1 Example

34. Post-projection Processing Graphical Output – Page 2 Example

35. Ver. 1 summary results – all regions Heat Input Generation SO2 Emissions NOX Emissions

36. In summary • The model has been built • Inputs are being refined • Output has been generated • Work is needed to evaluate output • Partial Year Reporters • Generic units • New growth factors based on AEO 2012 are needed • Scenarios can be built to evaluate policy