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Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection

Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection

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Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection

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  1. Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection Jon D. Fricker 21 June 2007

  2. “Urban Sprawl” Euclidean zoning Gasoline prices Transportation and Land Use Issues 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  3. What the travel model says: 1. Changing Land Use patterns will affect the amount of travel (vehicle-miles traveled) – at least a little. 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  4. 2. A neighborhood can support only so much retail activity. What economic analysis says: 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  5. What people say: 3. A New Urbanist neighborhood design is not for everyone. 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  6. Move non-residential LUs into one neighborhood. LUs that fit travel behavior, rather than the opposite Provide LUs that satisfy the most common trip making purposes. 1. Changing LU patterns 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  7. 1. Reverse Engineered N’hood A. LU Categories by trip frequency: >1 trip/week, >1 trip/month, <1 trip/month: • Grocery, Gas Station, School, et al. B. Nr of each LU/100 HHs: • Trip rates per 100 HH (NPTS and ITE) for each LU • Average size of each LU C. Scale up to 1 sq mi 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  8. 1. REN example calc (1) • 901.58 trips/week/1000 sq. ft. GFA in supermarket • 1.327 trips/week/HH to supermarket • Store area = (1.327/901.58)* 1000 *100 = 147 sq. ft./100 HHs • Avg supermarket size 34K sq ft  0.004 supermarkets per 100 HH • Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  9. 1. REN example calc (2) • Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs total land area needed to serve 100 HHs • Assumed HHs/acre  land needed • Scale up to fill one square mile  “attractions” in REN 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  10. Let residents work and shop anywhere. TAZ size  one city block Subarea analysis VMT or Trip Length 1. REN travel model 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  11. 1. Changes in Travel 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  12. 1. Lessons • Introducing non-residential LUs gives residents a choice of destinations that are closer. • The resulting reductions in trip lengths are noticeable, but not dramatic, at the neighborhood level. • The trip length reductions are barely noticeable at the system level. 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  13. 2. Neighborhood businesses • How many retail establishments can a New Urbanist neighborhood support? 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  14. Shift analysis from trips and GFA to $/HH and $/LU type Nhood area one sq mi 5(?) HHs/sq mi Do “Market Analysis” (next two slides) 2. Neighborhood businesses 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  15. 2. Consumer Expenditure-Based Market Analysis An average household spends $3000 a year on grocery-store related items. • An average grocery store has sales of $600,000 a year. • Then, the number of grocery stores that can be supported by 100 HHs = $3000 * 100 / ($ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery stores 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  16. 2. Household-Based Market Analysis • There are 1000 banks in a state with a population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per person). • The average income at the state level is $12,000 a year. • The average income at the county level is $10,000 a year. • Then, the number of banks that can be supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * ($10,000/ $12,000) = 0.83 banks 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  17. 2. Lessons At “normal” urban densities for single-family dwellings (4-6 HH/acre), a one-square-mile neighborhood cannot support enough stores to cover even one edge. • Density must be increased dramatically, probably by high-rise apartment buildings, or • The “neighborhood” stores must rely on customers from other neighborhoods. 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  18. 3. Preference Surveys • Two-part survey at a monthly meeting of a neighborhood association. (1) Rate the desirability of twenty-four types of non-residential land uses if they were located within walking distance of your residence. (2) Three hypothetical New Urbanist-like neighborhood revitalization case studies, differing by location and scale, were presented. 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  19. 3. LU Preferences (1) • Churches were most preferred, while liquor stores were ranked lowest. (figure next page) • Land uses visited frequently (e.g. grocery store or restaurant) rated higher than less-frequented ‘benign’ LUs, such as an insurance sales office. • A positive relationship between the frequency of trips taken and the desirability of a particular land use within a neighborhood. 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  20. 3. LU preferences (2) 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  21. 3. New Urbanist Cases 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  22. Opposed proposed developments in center of neighborhood -- would increase traffic. Development on perimeter acceptable, but few residents would not walk/bicycle to the proposed developments, despite their proximity. 3. Residents’ Opinions • People would still go to more distant stores for longer hours, lower prices, greater variety. 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  23. Not this: But this: In other words, … 3 Things ... LU/Tp

  24. Review of Results • Land use changes can help reduce VMT, but this is a long-term solution. • High densities needed to support “frequent” LUs, but other LUs need a larger market shed. • A minority like New Urbanist design now, but this market niche needs to be nurtured. 3 Things ... LU/Tp