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Challenges to Conventional Wisdom

Numbers that Matter about China. Challenges to Conventional Wisdom. Saturday 19 September 2009 Guy Kedar Gerrit Ledderhof Chia Wei Lee Johanna Little Geoff Spielman. Some Numbers. Chinese population is over 1.3 billion It is growing at a rate of 0.665% per year

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Challenges to Conventional Wisdom

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  1. Numbers that Matter about China Challenges to Conventional Wisdom Saturday 19 September 2009 Guy KedarGerrit Ledderhof Chia Wei Lee Johanna Little Geoff Spielman

  2. Some Numbers • Chinese population is over 1.3 billion • It is growing at a rate of 0.665% per year • Overall gender ratio is 1.06 males/female • However...

  3. What does this mean? • For every 213 children, there are 113 males and 100 females • At the current growth rate, in 15 years • Population of 1.44 billion • Youths will be between 15 and 30 of age • 151 million males, 134 million females • A surplus of almost 18 million males!

  4. What does this mean? • If taken to the extreme and the trend only continues • ...in 50 years population of 1.81 billion • 955 million males, 893 million females • A surplus of 62 million males!

  5. Why is this happening? • One-Child Policy • 57% rural population • desire for male to provide social security • Government reporting is suspect • underreported female births, abortions

  6. What are possible implications? • Unknown ramifications on child development • Change in the role of women • Change of One-Child policy • Crash of population • Mass migration • Increased ethnic diversity • Increased likelihood of war • New approach to polygamy?

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