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Explore past profitability analysis, cost assumptions, risk reduction through futures hedging, and net benefits of different marketing options in livestock operations to make informed decisions for sustainable business growth.
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Profitability of Selected Marketing Alternatives Todd D. Davis Extension Economist Clemson University
Objective • Past Profitability from 1989 - 2005 • Ability to cover cash costs? • Does it Pay to Retain Ownership? • Fall Sales vs. Stockering • Fall Sales vs. Retained ownership in Kansas feedlots • Can Hedging with Futures Help Reduce Risk?
Production Assumptions • Cow-calf • 100 cows, 85% calf crop, Selling 500 # steers & 450 # heifers on Sep. 10 • Preconditioning • 45 days, Gain 2 lbs/day (1.8 lbs/day), cost $60/hd • Stockering • Feed 150 days, Gain 2.00 lbs/day (1.85 lbs/day), Selling 890# steers & 810 # heifers on March 24 • Finishing • Feed 210 days, Gain 3 lbs/day, Sell 1250 # steer on May 23
Cost Assumptions • Production costs based on Clemson Univ. Enterprise Budgets (Cow-calf, stockering, hay & forages) • Finishing costs based on Kansas State University Extension • Historical input costs from USDA
Prices are from … • South Carolina weekly feeder cattle cash prices (by weight and sex) from 1989-2005 (USDA Livestock Market News) • Kansas weekly cash slaughter steers & heifers prices from 1989-2005 (Kansas State) • Daily feeder cattle and live cattle futures and options data from 1989-2005 (Commodity Research Bureau)
Revenues and Total Variable Costs – SC Cow-Calf Operation ($/hd) 1989-2005 Average Return over TVC= $150/hd
Revenue and Total Variable Costs – SC Cow-Calf w/ Winter Stockering Operation ($/hd) 1990-2005 Average Return over TVC = $235/hd
Revenue and Total Variable Costs – SC Cow-Calf and Finishing Operation ($/hd) 1990-2005 Average Return over TVC = $265 / hd
Your labor and management skills are valuable! • While you may be profitable in covering your out-of-pocket expenses… • Budget a return to your labor and management skills – don’t work for free! (20% of Total Variable Costs) • Think about budgeting a profit margin to help finance future business investments and growth
How do I know if I should retain ownership or sell now? • Compare what you gain from retained ownership to what it costs… • What you gain Increased Revenue • What it costs Additional Cost of Gain + Lost Revenue (what you could get if you sell now)
Net Increase in Returns from Stockering vs. Fall Sales ($/hd) 1990-2005 Average = $30/hd
Net Increase in Returns from Finishing vs. Fall Sales ($/hd) 1990-2005 Average = -$7/hd
Know your costs! • It pays to budget and to know and monitor your costs. • Take the time to evaluate if it is pays to retain ownership or sell it now. • The costs and benefits can differ greatly from year-to-year!
What are Futures? • They are contracts sold on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that allows you … • “Lock in a price” – Losses in the cash market will be offset by gains in the futures market • This can be complicated – Let’s see if we can use futures/options to reduce risk • Learn mechanics at another meeting
Hedging Assumptions • Cow-Calf – Sell October Feeder Cattle Contract on March 1, Offset Sep. 10 • Winter Stockering – Sell April Feeder Cattle Contract on Oct. 1, Offset March 24 • Finishing – Sell June Live Cattle Contract on Oct. 1, Offset May 24
Net Benefit of Hedging Fall Feeder Calf Sales – October Feeder Futures *** ($/hd) 1989-2005 Avg. = -$30/hd 1989-2002 Avg. = -$8/hd Beneficial 30% of the time *** For Educational Purposes Only!
Net Benefit of Hedging Fall Feeder Calf Sales & Stocker – October Feeder & March Feeder Futures *** ($/hd) 1989-2005 Avg = -$28/hd 1989-2003 Avg = -$5/hd Beneficial 40% of the time! *** For Educational Purposes Only!
Net Benefit of Hedging Fall Feeder Calf Sales & Finishing – October Feeder & April Live Futures *** ($/hd) 1989-2003 Avg = -$5/hd 1989-2005 Avg = -$33/hd Beneficial 40% of the time! *** For Educational Purposes Only!
Are Futures and Options Useful? • Sometimes… • Remember that you’re trying to protect against low prices • Futures and Options won’t “Pay” every year • Consider the revenue provided in a ‘worst case’ scenario • You can do better than the ‘naïve’ strategies used in this example!
Thank you for your attention!I will be happy to answer any questions you may have.