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Climate post COP 15 in a Limits to Growth perspective

This presentation provides an overview of the 1972 Limits to Growth study and its relevance in the current climate situation. It discusses immediate and long-term actions that should be taken to address the challenges. The presentation also explores scenarios for the 21st century and emphasizes the importance of trying rather than giving up.

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Climate post COP 15 in a Limits to Growth perspective

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  1. Climate post COP 15 in a Limits to Growth perspective Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian School of Management BI The 2010 Peder Sather Symposium Brower Center, Berkeley April 15, 2010

  2. Overview  What did The Limits to Growth study say in 1972?  What has happened since?  What is the current situation (in LTG perspective)?  What should be done – immediately?  What should be done in the longer run?  Better to try than to give up

  3. 12 scenarios for the 21st century

  4. 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources 1 3 2 1 5 2: Food output 5 4 1: Population 1 2 3 2 1 5 2 5 3 4 4: Pollution level 3 4 4 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year 2100 Limits Scenario 1: Business as usual Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

  5. The world is small

  6. Decision making takes time COP 15 meeting in December 2009

  7. Canadian catch of cod 1850 – 2003 (tons per year) Collapse does occur Source: GRID Arendal, Planet in Peril, 2004

  8. LTG scenarios vs 30 years of data Source: Graham Turner, WP 2008-09, CSIRO, Sydney , June 2008

  9. LTG scenarios vs 30 years of data Source: Graham Turner, WP 2008-09, CSIRO, Sydney , June 2008

  10. PLANET EARTH The human ecological footprint 1961 – 03 BUILT- UP LAND NUCLEAR ENERGY ENERGY FISHING GROUNDS FOREST GRAZING LAND CROPLAND Source: Living Planet Report, WWF, 2006

  11. Human CO2 emissions and its effect 400 300 200 100 0 Concentration in ppm Emissions in GtCo2/yr)

  12. Temperature is going up Global average ocean and land Source: Jim Hansen, Climate threat to the Planet, Oslo 2009

  13. Approaching peak oil? Source: www.theoildrum.com/tag/update

  14. Decision making takes time COP 15 meeting in December 2009

  15. Human CO2 emissions – necessary cut SUSTAINABLE ? 2050 2100

  16. WWF solution in 2007 (+forest protection) 2 % per year growth in energy use Increased energy efficiency (yellow) More renewable energy (blue+green) Carbon capture and storage (brown) Source: Climate Solutions, WWF International, 2007

  17. Faster decision-making? President Hu speaking in the great halll 2009

  18. What to do? An end to overshoot through managed decline BAU Overshoot Towards sustainability Source: Mathis Wackernagel, 2010

  19. Technology is advancing Source: World Bank, Commodities at the Crossroads, 2009

  20. Proposed burden sharing (tCO2/person-yr) 2010: Industrial world starts cutting 5 %/yr 15 Industrial world 2025: China starts cutting 5 %/yr 10 Per capita emissions (tCO2 per person-yr) 5 2035: Rest of world starts cutting 5 %/yr China Rest of world 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: Bjart Holtsmark, Statistics Norway.

  21. Total emissions (GtCO2/yr - per region) 50 45 40 35 30 GtCO2 per year 25 20 Rest of world Industrial world 15 10 5 China 0 Source: Bjart Holtsmark, Statistics Norway. 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

  22. Incomes grow, but not happiness Data for the United States 1973 - 2004 Source: Clark et al, Journal of Economic Literature 2008, 46:1

  23. Better to try than to give up! jorgen.randers@bi.no

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