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Barbara M. Fraumeni Muskie School of Public Service, USM, Portland, ME, USA the National Bureau of Economic Research,

. J-F: the ModelInternational effortsOECD human capital consortiumChinaExtensions

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Barbara M. Fraumeni Muskie School of Public Service, USM, Portland, ME, USA the National Bureau of Economic Research,

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    2. J-F: the Model International efforts OECD human capital consortium China Extensions & improvements

    3. 3 Human Capital as Capital Seminal: Becker (1964), Mincer (1974), Schultz (1961) More recent Economic sustainability and well-being Stiglitz Commission: Commission on Economic Performance and Social Progress World Bank Wealth Report

    4. 4 Theoretical Basis Jorgenson-Fraumeni Neoclassical theory of investment (Jorgenson) Investment amount as the price you would pay for a business machine that would help you earn future income

    5. 5 Jorgenson-Fraumeni Lifetime income projections Depend upon education, age, and survival as well as income earned Present discounted values adjusted for future expected income changes with contemporaneous information

    6. OECD Human Capital Consortium Jorgenson-Fraumeni Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand, Poland, Romania, Russia, Spain, UK, US, EC (Eurostat), International Labour Organization, Other countries who have already done J-F China, Sweden

    7. 7 OECD Consortium IARIW Progress Report by Liu Market only Ages 15-64 Ages 15-40 study & work Ages 41-64 work only Data on employment for 5-year age groups Data on school enrollment by single year of age through age 29, 5-year age groups there-after

    8. 8 OECD Consortium IARIW Progress Report by Liu Discount rate of 4.58% and a real income rate growth rate of 1.32% following J-F (1992, Griliches volume) Simplified methodology as suggested by Fraumeni (2008)

    9. 9 IARIW OECD Report by Liu Nominal Ratio of Human Capital to GDP, 2006

    10. 10 IARIW OECD Report by Liu Human Capital per Capita (Thous. of US$s) 2006

    11. 11 IARIW Human Capital in China Paper Li, Liang, Fraumeni, Liu, and Wang Ages Males 16-60 Females 16-55 For comparison purposes same real income growth rate and discount rate Base case income growth rates Urban 6.00% Rural 4.11%

    12. 12 IARIW Human Capital in China Paper Mincer equation to estimate income Modification of contemporaneous enrollment information

    13. 13 IARIW Human Capital in China Paper Educational Attainment by Gender 1982 vs. 2007, Millions

    14. 14 IARIW Human Capital in China Paper Real Human Capital (trillions of 1985 RMB)

    15. 15 IARIW Human Capital in China Paper Nominal Human Capital (trillions of RMB)

    16. 16 IARIW Human Capital in China Paper 2006 Comparison Nominal ratio of human capital to GDP is 5.1 below the OECD consortium country range of 6.9 to 11.7

    17. 17 IARIW Human Capital in China Paper

    18. 18 Next Release: Provincial Human Capital Center for Human Capital and Labor Market Research of the Central University for Finance and Economics, Beijing, China & Hunan University students Beijing Gansu Guangdong Hunan Jiangsu Liaoning

    19. 19 What Next for the OECD project? Divisia quantity indexes Will the nonmarket sector be added? Will other countries become involved at a later date?

    20. 20 Importance of Nonmarket Activities 60-70% of the value of all activities comes from nonmarket activities (J-F) Given the hours worked for pay of all hours available in a week, this is not too surprising How could we survive without nonmarket activities?

    21. 21 Jorgenson-Fraumeni Mark 2 No decisions, but well be back!

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