APEGGA PD Conference April 22-23, 2004

1. APEGGA PD Conference April 22-23, 2004 WHAT ENGINEERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE David J. Lapp, P.Eng. Manager, Professional Practice Canadian Council of Professional Engineers

2. Presentation Outline • Introduction to CCPE • Introduction to Climate Change and its Terminology • The Science of Climate Change • Impacts of Climate Change • Engineering and Climate Change • CCPE’s Impact and Adaptation Action Plan • Concluding Remarks • References/Sources

3. Introduction to CCPE • CCPE is the federation of 12 provincial and territorial associations/ordre and funded primarily by them through member fees • Voice of its constituent members in national and international affairs • Promotes greater understanding of the nature, role and contribution of engineering to society

4. What does CCPE do? • Research, surveys and policy development • Federal government relations • Member services (life, auto and home insurance, investment programs) • Holds official marks on the terms engineer, engineering, professional engineer, P.Eng., consulting engineer, and their French equivalents

5. What does CCPE do? • CCPE has two major subcommittees: • Canadian Engineering Accreditation Board (CEAB) - accreditation • Canadian Engineering Qualifications Board (CEQB) – qualification and practice • CEQB has a subcommittee called the Environment and Sustainability Committee which is where the climate change issue resides

6. Introduction to Climate Change and its Terminology

7. ‘Climate’ is not ‘weather’ • Climate is ‘average weather’ • - and its variability • - for a particular region • - over a period of time • Includes many different elements • Climate is what you expect; • weather is what you get

8. ‘Climate change’ can be confused with climate variability • Climate change is a shift in ‘climate’ relative to a given reference time period • Climate change on a century time scale can be called climate variability on millennial time scales • Climate variability is often considered internal to the climate system • Climate change is normally caused by external factors

9. Climate Change – What is it? Climate change is concerned about significant changes in key climate variables such as: • Temperature • Precipitation and atmospheric moisture • Snow cover • Extent of land and sea ice • Sea level • Patterns in atmospheric and oceanic circulation • Extreme weather and climate events • Overall features of climate variability

10. Climate Change – Why is it happening (1)Past is prologue – Earth has experienced many different climate regimes throughout geological history and will undoubtedly experience them in the future. (2)Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon at a geological time scale and more or less hospitable to varying life forms, including human beings

11. Climate Change – Why is it happening Any factor that alters the radiation received from the Sun or lost to space, or alters the redistribution of energy within the atmosphere and between the atmosphere, land and ocean, can affect climate change.

12. Climate Change – Radiative Forcing Changes in the net radiative energy available to the global Earth-atmosphere system is termed a “radiative forcing”. Positive radiative forcings tend to have a warming effect while Negative radiative forcings tend to have a cooling effect

13. Radiative Forcings Factor Radiative Forcing Timescale Greenhouse Gases Positive Decades/Centuries Tropospheric Aerosols Negative Weeks Volcanic Activities Negative Years Nuclear Explosions/Asteroids Negative Immediate Changed Solar Output Either Varies Ocean Circulation Either Varies

14. Greenhouse Gas Levels GHG Pre-IR 1998 Change Atmos Life CO2 280 ppm 365 ppm 1.5 ppm/yr 5 to 200 yr CH4 700 ppb 1745 ppb 7.0 ppb/yr 12 yr N2O 270 ppb 314 ppb 0.8 ppb/yr 114 yr CFC-11 zero 268 ppt -1.4 ppt/yr 45 yr HFC-23 zero 14 ppt 0.55 ppt/yr 260 yr CF4 40 ppt 80 ppt 1 ppt/yr >50,000yr

15. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events

16. Definitions Mitigation - an intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks for greenhouse gases that are a driver for climatic change. This strategy is used to slow the rate of climatic change. Adaptation - an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic changes, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

17. Susceptibility (to Harm) Risk Hazard Stimulus Coping Ability Resilience Vulnerability =f( Exposure, Adaptive Capacity) Vulnerability The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate, including climate variability and extremes. It is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

18. How the climate is changing and its impacts

19. Global mean mean surface temperature (combined land/ocean) is rising

21. 380 360 340 $ CO2 Concentration (ppmv) 320 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Highest concentration in last 400,000 years $ 300 $ $ $ $ $ $ ! $ $ $ ' $ # ! ! $ ' ' $ ' # $ ' # ! ' ' ' ! ' ! 280 ' ' # ! # ! $ ! $ $ ' # ' ! ' ' $ $ ' ' ' ' ' ' 260 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 CO2 concentrations are now unprecedented in at least the past 400,000 years

24. Winters in most of Canada are likely to become wetter

25. But summers in interior North America are expected to become drier

26. Sea ice will retreat, particularly in summer

27. Sea levels will rise

28. 200 150 100 % Change in Frequency 50 0 -50 0.2-0.4 0.4-0.8 0.8-1.6 1.6-3.2 3.2-6.4 6.4-12.8 12.8-25.6 25.6+ Rainfall Intensity (mm/day) Inland flood disasters may become more frequent as rains become more intense

30. Today 60 40 ~2070 Return Period (years) 20 0 10 15 20 25 30 Length of Dry Spell (days) The frequency and severity of droughts are also likely to increase in southern Canada Central North America

32. Disaster losses • Worldwide during the 1990s there were: • more than 2,500 natural disasters • more than 650,000 people killed • more than CDN$ 1 trillion in damage • losses were 10-fold greater than during the 1950s

33. Canadian natural disasters Number

34. Economic losses (Constant US Dollars, 2000 values) - - - - - Trend of economic losses Insured losses (Constant US Dollars, 2000 values) _____ Trend of insured losses Global costs of natural disasters are rising

35. Global natural disaster losses US$ billions (2001 prices)

36. Recent Extreme Events with Severe Economic Impacts Saguenay flood,Quebec Red River flood, Manitoba Storm surge, Charlottetown PEI Prairie drought, AB and SK

37. Impacts on Communities (1) Infrastructure • Runoff, landslides and flooding • Water intake/control infrastructure • Accelerated deterioration • Damage • Reduced security of energy supply • Design specifications/margin of safety in building codes

38. Impacts on Communities (2) Water Resources • Increased capacity demands on sewage and water control • Pressures on source water resources and changed patterns (especially glacial runoff and groundwater) • Social and economic impacts (tourism and recreation) • Degraded water quality

39. Impacts on Communities (3) Human Health • Vector borne and waterborne diseases • Extreme heat and cold events • Deteriorating air quality • Secondary impacts (mold, increased transportation accidents and fatalities)

40. Projected Effects of Climate Change in Alberta • Increase in daily minimum temperatures • Warmer winters (shorter ski seasons, longer golf seasons?) • More frequent periods of drought in southern regions • Reduction of glaciers and changes in spring and summer runoff • Increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events • Water quality and water supply – case study of impact on Calgary water supply underway • Shifts in the nature and coverage of forests • Reduction of permafrost coverage

41. Climate Change Challenges • Long-term reduction of CO2 is a greater challenge as energy use will continue to rise. Progress is needed across the board: continued efficiency improvements, more renewable energy and new technologies that produce little or no CO2 or that capture and sequester it” • Study of Earth’s climate suggests that small forces maintained long enough can cause large climate change (non-linear effects, 29th day) • The debate over climate change is highly charged because of the inherent economic stakes

42. Climate ChangeSo what? • If current climate change is natural, then all we can do is try to adapt • If human activity is causing or contributing to climate change, then mitigative measures should be considered • Approach seems to be to assume climate change is happening, while accepting considerable uncertainty surrounding the issue. We have certainly not heard the final word on the subject.

43. Climate Change Measures in Alberta • Climate Change Adaptation Planning – 12 government departments with Climate Change Central • Legislation in place to require designs to account for future changes in emissions standards, limits and guidelines • Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative • Water sustainability strategy • Alberta government aims by 2020 to reduce emissions intensity by 50 percent below 1990 levels

44. Engineering and Climate Change

46. Mitigation An intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks for greenhouse gases that are a driver for climatic change. This strategy is used to slow the rate of climatic change.

47. Kyoto Protocol • What is it? • Current Status

48. Kyoto Protocol – What is it? • Negotiated in December 1997, in Kyoto, Japan • Legally binding agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of some greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 (but note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut.) • The goal is to lower overall emissions from six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs - calculated as an average over the five-year period of 2008 - 12. • National targets range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland. Canada is targeted with a 6% reduction

49. Kyoto Protocol – What is it (2) • Each Annex I (developed) country has agreed to limit emissions to the levels described in the protocol, but many countries have limits that are set above their current production. • These "extra amounts" can be purchased by other countries on the open market. So, for instance, Russia currently easily meets its targets, and can sell off its credits for millions of dollars to countries that don't yet meet their targets, Canada for instance. • This rewards countries that meet their targets, and provides financial incentives to others to do so as soon as possible.

50. Kyoto Protocol – Current Status • As of 2002, 104 countries have ratified the protocol, including Canada, People's Republic of China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and the fifteen countries of the European Union. • 19 countries have signed the protocol but not ratified it. Of those eight are Annex I countries: Australia (not intending to ratify), Croatia , Liechtenstein , Monaco , Russia -- Russia has changed stances on the issue several times, with conflicting statements from various ministers. The current stance (as of December 2003) is that they have significant reservations, but are undecided. Switzerland The Kyoto Protocol has been ratified by the Senate but not yet by the House of Representatives. Ukraine -- Ukraine is expected to ratify the treaty. United States (not intending to ratify the treaty).