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WP 4: Assessment of environmental and economic risks Tasks of TUT

WP 4: Assessment of environmental and economic risks Tasks of TUT. Kristjan Tabri. WP4: TUT main tasks in general . TUT. Estimation of immediate consequences of ship accidents . Accident probabilities and scenarios. Overall impacts on the ecosystem . Definition of the scenario.

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WP 4: Assessment of environmental and economic risks Tasks of TUT

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  1. WP 4: Assessment of environmental and economic risksTasks of TUT Kristjan Tabri

  2. WP4: TUT main tasks in general TUT Estimation of immediate consequences of ship accidents Accident probabilities and scenarios Overall impacts on the ecosystem Definition of the scenario Description of damage

  3. Milestones 1 2 3-4 5-6 7-8 Identification of the input and output parameters for the model to asses ship structural damage in a certain accidental scenario Identification simulation models for the assessment of structural damage: models allowing precise but time wise expensive simulation and those allowing fast but less accurate evaluation Definition of the approach for the assessment of structural damage in a range of accidental scenarios Testing and validation of the tool. A paper based on the developed consequence analysis model. Scientific paper about the integrated model

  4. Estimation of immediate consequences of ship accidents • To provide a tool that describes the damage a ship experiences in a certain accidental scenario • The main issues at the moment • level of accuracy • identification of required set of input/output parameters in conjunction with other subroutines for risk analysis • number of accidental scenarios to be analyzed in a typical run • time-efficiency of the simulation tool

  5. Two possible approaches damage ship C ship B ship A scenario Slow calculation (finite element method) Fast calculation (semi-analytical method) Approach 1 : two-stage model The two-stage approach implies that only a small number of accidental scenarios are simulated at high precision and the rest are predicted with a simplified model that is calibrated based on these precise simulations Existing model can evaluate the damage in a wide variety of scenarios, but requires calibration input from at least 1 accidental scenario per ship i.e. The level of structural resistance has to be used as input - The evaluation of the level of structural resistance is time consuming +The overall outcome is relatively precise

  6. Two possible approaches damage ship C ship B ship A scenario Fast calculation (semi-analytical method) Approach 2 : single-stage model The single-stage approach implies that all the all of accidental scenarios are simulated with a simplified model The simplified model requires a module for fast assessment of the level of structural resistance - The outcome is less precise compared to the two-stage model +The whole simulation process isfaster

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