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Verification of Surface Weather Elements in Different Meteorological Services

Presentation slides from the COSMO General Meeting in Zurich, 2005, discussing the verification of surface weather elements across various services. Topics include high-resolution ensemble predictions, data assimilation, performance evaluation, and model biases. Analysis of meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and mean observations and forecasts are presented for different time periods. Suggestions for improving model accuracy and addressing systematic errors are also highlighted.

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Verification of Surface Weather Elements in Different Meteorological Services

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  1. Results of LMs surface parameters verification @ different Services - (21 of 136 slides) with contributions of • Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger • Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann,Guy de Morsier, André Walser,Emanuele Zala & Dominique Ruffieux • Elena Oberto, Marco Turco &Paolo Bertolotto • Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska & Andrzej Mazur • Adriano Raspanti, Patrizio Emiliani & Alessandro Galliani COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  2. COSMO Strategy Longer-term perspectives (3-5 years): science 1. High-resolution, short-range EPS available optimally: each COSMO member contributes 2 ensemble members 2. Assimilation of ‘all’ available data sfc / profiles / radar / satellites… high resolution also slowly-changing information (soil moisture, vegetation state, etc) 3. LM performance is known and critically discussed example of ECMWF includes dissemination of results COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  3. Geopotential 17.12.2003 GME PseudoTemps 27.09.2003 New GME COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  4. Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  5. Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  6. Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 2 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  7. Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 10 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  8. Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H < 800 m COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  9. Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts DJF 2004/05 00 UTC H < 800 m COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  10. aLMo without TKE LM with TKE ANETZ LM aLMo COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  11. COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  12. VERIFICATION OF THE LAMI AT CNMCA, T2m • Strong negative bias in winter • Strong positive mae (low abs accuracy) • in summer around midday

  13. Positive bias for all the seasons (low mae in summer – weak circulation) • Diurnal cycle in spring and summer (overestimation during night – weak underestimation daytime) VERIFICATION OF THE LAMI AT CNMCA, Wind speed 10m

  14. COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  15. VERIFICATION OF THE LAMI AT CNMCA, mslp • Quasi-Linear increment of mae with the ranges • Negative bias for d+2 during summer

  16. COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  17. Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  18. LAMI prognostic rain scheme Observed LAMI “standard” Case study during a strong foehn event: 21-22 Jan’05 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  19. Subjective impressions by forecasters • faster movements of synoptic systems in the model compared to reality • Precipitation too high at the windward side of orographic obstacles • sometimes unrealistic overestimation of precipitation at single gridpoints or group of gridpoints COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  20. What do we need? • Ideas about the reasons for systematic model errors (interaction WG3 and WG 5) • Experimental runs with assimilation cycles for different physical and mathematical approaches concerning systematic model errors • Conditional verification could be a useful step in this connection (melting snow???) COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  21. That‘s all,thank you for your attention! COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

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