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Scenarios and the Integration of Models

Scenarios and the Integration of Models. Cascading models. An overview. Demography Econ. growth. Land use Uncertainty. Scenario description. Technology availability. OD matrices. Modal choices. Energy prices. Transport Demand. Energy use Technology ranking. Traffic:VISUM.

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Scenarios and the Integration of Models

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  1. Scenarios and the Integration of Models Cascading models Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  2. An overview Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  3. Demography Econ. growth Land use Uncertainty Scenario description Technology availability OD matrices Modal choices Energy prices Transport Demand • Energy use • Technology ranking Traffic:VISUM Energy:MARKAL Emissions due to sectors: transport Residential industry Pollution Models: VADIS & OFIS & ISC3 Traffic loads Emission rates (TREM) Journey travel time Congestion Pollutant concentrations Model Cascading Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  4. Steps • Design O/D matrices based on scenarios • Run traffic assignments (VISUM : TRAFFIC) • Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite : Energy) • Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) • Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors • Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS : Regional O3 model) • Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS : local pollution model) • Compute indicators • City comparisons and benchmarking • Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  5. Steps • Design O/D matrices based on scenarios • Run traffic assignments (VISUM : TRAFFIC) • Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite : Energy model) • Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) • Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors • Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS) • Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) • Compute indicators • City comparisons and benchmarking • Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  6. Drivers for the traffic model (VISUM) • O/D matrices • Modal choices • PTV method • Land use  OD matrix • Alternative methods… Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  7. Transport vehicle link results Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  8. Steps • Design O/D matrices based on scenarios • Run traffic assignments (VISUM) • Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) • Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) • Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors • Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS) • Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) • Compute indicators • City comparisons and benchmarking • Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  9. Drivers of the emissions model (TREM) Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  10. Steps • Design O/D matrices based on scenarios • Run traffic assignments (VISUM) • Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) • Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) • Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors (MARKAL-Lite) • Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS) • Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) • Compute indicators • City comparisons and benchmarking • Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  11. Drivers for the energy model (MARKAL) • Energy prices • (constant values used for all periods) • Useful demands • Available technology • (using the needed energy characteristics parameters) Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  12. Coupling Energy and Traffic Public transport - base case Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  13. Steps • Design O/D matrices based on scenarios • Run for traffic assignments (VISUM) • Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) • Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) • Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors • Run global O3 model with total emissions (REGIONAL O3 model) • Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) • Compute indicators • City comparisons and benchmarking • Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  14. Emission rates for Geneva Moles/sec/km2 Moles/sec/km2 Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  15. Drivers of the ozone model (OFIS)Geneva example • Emissions: The emissions are based on the SEDE emissions inventory produced in 1996. • Meteorology: Wind direction and speed … • Boundary conditions: The boundary conditions data comes from the measurements station of Chaumont, located on the "Plateau Suisse" Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  16. OFIS simulationFour city examples Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  17. Steps • Design O/D matrices based on scenarios • Run for traffic assignments (VISUM) • Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) • Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) • Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors • Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS) • Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (LOCAL POLLUTION MODEL) • Compute indicators • City comparisons and benchmarking • Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  18. TREM  VADIS Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  19. MARKAL  VADIS Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  20. Drivers of the canyon model (VADIS : LOCAL Pollution Model) • The building situation • Emission sources coordinates definition • The meteorological conditions • Description and the CO emissions characterization Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  21. Steps • Design O/D matrices based on scenarios • Run for traffic assignments (VISUM) • Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) • Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) • Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors • Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS) • Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) • Compute indicators • City comparisons and benchmarking (See ESS site : Benchmarking) • Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  22. Publications • Caratti P., Haurie A., Pinelli D., Zachary D.S. Exploring the fuel cell car future: an integrated energy model at the city level. The Ninth International Conference on Urban Transport and the Environment 2003, Crete, Greece. • Borrego C., Miranda A.I.,  Valente J., Lopes M., Couto J.M. , Haurie A.  & Drouet L. Studying the impact of urban sustainable transportation on Lisbon air quality. To appear in proceedings of AIR POLLUTION 2003, Eleventh  International Conference on Modelling, Monitoring and Management of Air Pollution 17 -19 September 2003 Catania, Italy Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  23. Demography Econ. growth Land use Uncertainty Scenario description Technology availability OD matrices Modal choices Energy prices Transport Demand • Energy use • Technology ranking Traffic Energy Emissions due to sectors: transport Residential industry Traffic loads Emission rates (TREM) Pollution Models Journey travel time Congestion Pollutant concentrations Model Cascading Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  24. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  25. MARKAL  VADIS Lisbon Data Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  26. VISUM  MARKAL Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  27. Coupling MARKAL and TrafficPrivate transport – base case Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  28. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  29. OFIS scenario results for Geneva Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  30. Coupling MARKAL and Traffic Public Transport – 4 scenarios Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003 Public Transport decomposition Market

  31. Coupling MARKAL and TrafficPrivate Transport – 4 scenarios Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  32. Traffic Scenarios results for Geneva Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  33. Indicators : TREM Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  34. Indicator : VADIS • State indicators: • NOx peak concentration (mg/m3): 138,8 • CO peak concentration (mg/m3): 1582,4 Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  35. Emission rates… exampleEuropean standards for 9 MARKAL periods Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  36. Import energy prices for MARKAL Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  37. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  38. Building situation in VADIS domain Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  39. Distribution of vehicles by Categories Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  40. Coupling TREM with the traffic model Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  41. Coupling Pollution models with Traffic and Energy model Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  42. Indicators : from traffic model • Pressure indicators: • private transport: 1 927 697 850 • Passenger transport demand (pkm per year) • public transport: 19 869 100 • State indicators: • Crowding (hours in an overcrowded public transport: ????? • Traffic jams (hours spent in traffic jams): ????? Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  43. VADIS domain Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  44. Scenario comparison with OFIS Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  45. OFIS scenarios for Geneva AOT Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

  46. Coupling VISUM and MARKAL Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 2003

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