Mitigation Potential of the Forest Sector in India: Analyzing Carbon Benefits and Challenges

1. FOREST SECTOR MITIGATION IN INDIA Ravindranath, Sudha & Sandhya Indian Institute of Science Bangalore

2. Objectives • i) To estimate the mitigation potential of forest sector in India under different scenarios • Develop baseline & project scenario • Estimate additionality of carbon benefit • ii) To assess costs and benefits • iii) To assess barriers and options to mitigation activities

3. Steps In Assessing Forest Sector Mitigation Potential • Develop baseline scenario • Identify & develop project scenario • Technical potential scenario • Sustainable forestry scenario- Biomass demand • Commercial forestry scenario- Biomass demand • Identify mitigation activities and area- based on • Biomass demands • Area available, suitable • Estimating C-stock changes using PROCOMAP model • Under baseline scenario • Under project scenario • Incremental C-stock or C-benefits • Estimating cost-effectiveness, investment cost • Assessment of barriers to mitigation projects and options

4. Land Use Pattern in India

6. Mitigation Potential Through a Sustainable Forest Management Approach for India • Potential Scenarios • Technical potential scenario • Sustainable forestry scenario • Commercial forestry scenario • Potential Mitigation Activities • Afforestation – short rotation • Afforestation – long rotation • Forest regeneration (reforestation) • Forest Protection • Bioenergy

7. Baseline Scenario • Current rate of forest loss projected to continue • 1984 to 1994 = 400,000 ha • 1995 to 1997 = 274,000 ha • Rates of afforestation projected to decline • Area under crops stabilized (at ~ 150 Mha) • Current (10th plan) rate of investment projected to continue • Biomass demands are not systematically addressed in afforestation programs

8. Sustainable Forestry Scenario- STEPS • Estimate fuelwood, industrial wood and sawn wood demands for 2015 • Assess land use pattern and surplus land available for forestry activities • Identify forestry activities for meeting biomass demands eg. Short-rotation plantation for ind.wood • Allocate forestry activities to compatible land categories; SR-plantations for private lands • Meet current biomass demands (for 2000) from baseline activities; existing forests, plantations, farms • Meet incremental (2015 minus 2000) biomass demands from proposed forestry activities

9. Commercial Forestry (CF) Scenario • Government supported A&R and Protected area on Reserve forest, Social forestry on Community or Government lands • Industrial wood, sawnwood and urban fuelwood demand through commercial approach in private lands • Full incremental biomass demand rate projected for 2000-2015 period • through commercial forestry approach

10. Method of Estimation of Carbon Benefits & Costs • COMAP model developed by F-7 (Tropical Forest -7) Network coordinated by LBNL • Inputs; Baseline & project scenario • Land available, Area to be afforested-yearly, Soil C & Biomass stock & growth rate, Rotation period, Life of product, investment cost, annual cost, monitoring cost, value of products (timber, fuelwood, NTFPs) • Outputs; Baseline and Mitigation scenario • Annual and cumulative carbon stock changes (tC/ha) • Incremental carbon stock • Total C stock per ha • Cost-Effectiveness; • Investment cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha • Life cycle cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha • Net present value of returns; Rs/tC

11. Biomass demand in India (Mt)

12. Baseline Scenario • Afforestation expected to decline from 0.84 Mha to 0.74 Mha beyond 2000 • Forest loss/conversion rates expected to continue at current rates of 274,000 ha annually • Current demands (for 2000) expected to be met from existing forests, plantations, farms, etc.

13. Annual area to be dedicated to produce biomass

14. Mitigation Potential and Cost of Forestry Sector Activities

15.  Short Rotation Long Rotation  Forest Protection Forest Regeneration  Investment cost ($/ha) 303.00 695.00 35.00 45.00 Lifecycle cost ($/ha) 415.00 877.00 164.00 68.00 NPV of benefits ($/ha) 55.00 -584.00 0.12 -867.73 Investment Cost ($ /Mg C) 13.77 9.26 0.21 0.26 Lifecycle cost ($/Mg C/ha) 18.86 11.69 0.99 0.39 Costs and Benefits

16. Mitigation Potential

18. 1990 2000 2012 Change in C-stock Baseline Scenario C-stock 5527 5507 20 (2000-2012) A Mitigation Scenario C-stock 5527 5764 237 (2012-2000) B Incremental C Stock 217 (B-A) Incremental Mitigation Potential (MtC)Sustainable Forestry Scenario Annualincome from carbon credits = Rs. 500 Crores

19. Investment Required (Rs. Million) Additional annual investment needed = Rs. 700 to 1500 crores

20. Socio-economic impact of mitigation options • Employment and income generation through wage labour • Firewood and fodder collection from plantations for the local communities • Reduced needs for fuelwood collection for the local communities • Income generation through NTFP collection • Reduction in pressure on forests • Positive implications for biodiversity • Watershed protection

21. Data, Methods, Models are critical- Baseline & Project Activities • Monitoring & estimating • AGB stock, annual AGB growth rate • Soil carbon stock, annual / periodic changes • Litter production • Developing ratio of AGB to BGB • Monitoring extraction rates and effects on carbon stock • Monitoring area changes, crown cover changes and linking to biomass stock changes • Estimating production of wood and NTFPs & values • Models for projecting biomass and soil carbon stock • Models for estimating costs and benefits • Models & methods for incorporating barriers for estimating mitigation potential

22. Addressing Contentious IssuesGuidelines, Methods, Models • NON-PERMANENCE/REVERSIBILITY OF CARBON SEQUESTERED;Temporary nature of CO2 removal by sinks from LUCF activities • Estimating C stocks annually • LEAKAGE;Net change of anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs and removal by sinks, which occurs outside the project boundary, and which is measurable and attributable to the CDM project activity • Estimating C stock changes within & outside project boundary • ADDITIONALITY; A project activity is additional if anthropogenic GHG emissions are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the project activity [OR ] CO2 removal by sinks that are higher than that would have occurred in the absence of a project activity • - Estimate C-stock changes under baseline and mitigation Sce

23. Issues… • BASELINE DEVELOPMENT • Reliable estimates of C stock changes in the proposed project area in the absence of project activity • METHODS TO ADDRESS CONTENTIOUS ISSUES ARE AVAILABLE • Simplification • Reduce costs & increase accuracy • Create access to potential users • ACCOUNTING RULES FOR ADDRESSING CONTENTIOUS ISSUES • SBSTA & IPCC are developing guidelines & methods • TRANSACTION COSTS; for baseline dev. Monitoring and project administration - Minimum • BUILDING INSTITUTIONS & CAPACITY TO ENHANCE PARTICIPATION OF LOCAL INSTITUTIONS • critical