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Comparison of Different Methods of Computing Yearly Growth Rates for Petroleum Supply, 1995-2005

Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007. 2. Disclaimer. This is a working document prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and comment on statistical matters from the American Statistical Association Committee on Energy Statistics. This topic will be

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Comparison of Different Methods of Computing Yearly Growth Rates for Petroleum Supply, 1995-2005

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    1. Comparison of Different Methods of Computing Yearly Growth Rates for Petroleum Supply, 1995-2005 Carol Joyce Blumberg Mathematical Statistician Petroleum Statistical Methodology Team Petroleum Division Office of Oil and Gas

    2. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 2 Disclaimer This is a working document prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and comment on statistical matters from the American Statistical Association Committee on Energy Statistics. This topic will be discussed at EIA's spring 2007 meeting with the Committee to be held April 19 and 20, 2007.

    3. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 3 Background The Petroleum Division of the Office of Oil and Gas collects data on volumes of Product Supplied for, among other products, Finished Motor Gasoline, Distillate Fuel Oil, and Total Products. These data are collected weekly and monthly, with final numbers published annually.

    4. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 4 Background (contd) Product Supplied = (Field Production + Refinery and Blender Net Production + Imports + Adjustments) (Stock Change + Refinery and Blender Net Inputs + Exports)

    5. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 5 Motivation for this Research Our clients (especially market analysts and financial analysts) like to compute year-to-year growth rates. For example, what was the percent increase in volume of Product Supplied in March 2004 as compared to March 2003?

    6. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 6 Motivation (contd) But, different analysts have used different methods of computing these yearly growth rates. This confuses the consumers of their growth rates (for example, the mass media and other financial analysts.)

    7. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 7 Motivation (cont'd) So, the Petroleum Division decided to do an empirical study to determine which method(s) of computing yearly growth rates for Product Supplied are best.

    8. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 8 Data Location All of the data used in this research are available on EIA Petroleum Navigator. Petroleum Navigator is the main website for Petroleum data (one-stop shopping). Main url is http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pub_publist.asp.

    9. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 9 Units of Measurement All volumes are in thousands of BARRELS PER DAY. Using barrels per day allows one not to have to adjust for the different number of days in February in different years.

    10. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 10 Relevant Data Weekly Volumes Estimated by using data from five weekly surveys of samples from the appropriate populations. These numbers are reported in Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR).

    11. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 11 Relevant Data (cont'd) Monthly (Preliminary) Data The monthly data are collected using seven surveys. They are basically censuses of the appropriate populations. These data can be thought of as preliminary estimates. They are published about 60 days after the end of the month in Petroleum Supply Monthly. These data will be abbreviated as PSM.

    12. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 12 Relevant Data (cont'd) Final Monthly Values These are the monthly values with corrections for late submissions and resubmissions of data. They are published in Petroleum Supply Annual (abbreviated as PSA.) PSA is published about 6 months after the end of the calendar year.

    13. Comparison Yearly Growth Rates: April 19, 2007 13 Yearly Growth Rates Ideally a yearly growth rate here is defined by Formula A (which we call the Gold Standard) of where Month = Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr. and t = number of years since 1994 and where PSA is the monthly amount reported in Petroleum Supply Annual.

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