ARQ part II data management

1. ARQ part II data management Training pack 1: Content and conceptual issues

2. Prevalence of drug abuse among the general population Prevalence of drug abuse among the school (youth) population Injecting drug abuse Severe drug abuse New developments in prevalence and patterns of drug use Drug-related morbidity Drug-related mortality Drug treatment Data collection capacity Reports and additional information Content

3. Structure • Specification by drug • Summary expert opinions • Quantitative estimates

4. Specificationby drug (1) • What information is required? • Narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances listed in the UN conventions • Drug classes and/or drug types relevant for each question are pre-coded • Countries can add other classes and types of substance • Some questions allow aggregate information for “any drug”

5. Specification by drug (2) • Why specify by drug? • Individual drugs show different patterns of use and risk behaviour • Individual drugs are used by different subgroups • Individual drugs have different health and social consequences

6. Specification by drug (3) • How to obtain the information required: • Make sure that all your experts and data collectors know the ARQ terminology and classification of drugs • If reports do not specify ARQ categories, their source material might still be useful: check and ask for dedicated runs on source data • If you cannot match the ARQ categories, add and specify your own

7. Summary expert opinions (1) • Expert opinions should be gathered on: • The occurrence of individual drugs • The rank order of individual drugs • New developments • Trends in the use of individual drugs

8. Example: occurrence questions NO/YES per drug NO/YES per drug + “Any drug” NO/YES per infection NO/YES per drug + “Any drug” NO/YES per drug +“Any drug”

9. Example: rank order questions Rank in numerical order

10. Example: new developments Respond according to evidence in reports or the field experience of informed experts

11. Example: trend questions Mark according to the perspective of your country

12. Summary expert opinions (2) • Why include expert opinions? • Because quantitative estimates are not available or not possible • Because existing quantitative estimates might not be specific for individual drugs • To include rare and new drugs • To qualify trends in relation to context

13. Example: rare and new drugs • Rare drugs might not show up in survey results • Rare drugs might not be specified separately in treatment or mortality data • New drugs might not yet have been included in forms or questionnaires

14. Example: qualification of trends • The qualification of any absolute change as “large” or “small” depends on the starting position or the size of the reference population • An identical absolute change may be perceived as “large” for one drug but as “no great change” for another

15. Summary expert opinions (3) • How to respond on the basis of expert opinions: • Select relevant experts: • Start with existing advisory group(s) if possible • Use the nomination method and purposive selection • Consult the experts: • Use the expert-survey or Delphi method • Respond to the ARQ according to consensus or (weighted) average opinion

16. Example: assessment of expert opinions

17. Example: selection of experts • Start with the usual government advisers or advisory group • Ask them to nominate experts in different fields relevant for responding to the ARQ • Select on the basis of consensus and acknowledged expertise

18. Example: Delphi-method consultation

19. Quantitative estimates (1) • The ARQ asks for quantitative estimates on: • Lifetime and last year prevalence among adult and school (youth) population • Recent injecting and equipment “sharing” • “Problem” drug use • Drug-related infections • Drug-related deaths • Drug treatment

20. Quantitative estimates (2) • Why choose these topics and report formats? • Globally accepted core indicators for the description of: • The extent of drug abuse  prevalence, problem use • Risk behaviour in drug abuse  injecting, sharing • The consequences of drug abuse  infections, death, treatment demand

21. Example: coherence between indicators

22. Quantitative estimates (3) • Reports should consist of one of the following: • Existing data and research at national level relating to the ARQ reporting year • Purposive national estimates • Existing incomplete, fragmented, sub-national quantitative data and research reports

23. Example: existing data • Reports from national monitoring system • National reports to other international organizations (WHO, EMCDDA, etc.) • Results from national studies • National statistics • If not related to reporting year: • Attempt trend extrapolation • Report most recent year available

24. Example: purposive estimates • Purposive for completion of the ARQ • Not applicable for all indicators • Based on accepted scientific estimation methods • Resources: • Drug Abuse Rapid Situation Assessments • GAP Toolkit Module 2: Estimating Prevalence

25. Example: fragmented data • Try to construct a national estimate by an inductive approach: • Start with an expert opinion about likely national figures • Check against available dispersed qualitative and quantitative information • Adapt expert opinion according to findings • Seek consensus among informed experts • If not possible, report a partial estimate

26. Data collection capacity • Rate your country’s capacity to meet ARQ reporting needs • Responses enable UNODC to assess needs in capacity-building

27. End of presentation

28. References (1) Web sites: www.incb.org/e/ind_conv.htm www.unodc.org/pdf/publications/report_2003-09-01_1.pdf

29. References (2) Web site: www.unodc.org

30. Eastern Europe Western Europe Example: differences in rank order Rank order 9 Crack Crack 8 Opium Inhalants 7 Cocaine Opium Hallucinogens Heroin 6 Inhalants Hallucinogens 5 Ecstasy Amphetamines 4 Amphetamines Ecstasy 3 Heroin Cocaine 2 Cannabis Cannabis 1 Situation in the late 1990s