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Energy in Transition II John Holmberg, project leader Physical Resource Theory Chalmers

Energy in Transition II John Holmberg, project leader Physical Resource Theory Chalmers. AES program conference 2009, Katrineholm. 2. Relative consumption patterns. 3. Level of consumption (e.g. work time). 1. Energy efficiency (technology). Rebound effects.

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Energy in Transition II John Holmberg, project leader Physical Resource Theory Chalmers

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  1. Energy in Transition II John Holmberg, project leader Physical Resource Theory Chalmers AES program conference 2009, Katrineholm

  2. 2. Relative consumption patterns 3. Level of consumption (e.g. work time) 1. Energy efficiency (technology) Rebound effects

  3. Publications with AES funding Algehed J, Wirsenius, S, Jönsson J, 2009. Modelling energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions in energy-intensive industry under stringent CO2 policies: Comparison of top-down and bottom-up approaches and evaluation of usefulness to policy makers, ECEEE Summer Study, La Colle sur Loup, France 1–6 June 2009. Nässén J, 2007. Energy efficiency - Trends, determinants, trade-offs and rebound effects with examples from Swedish housing, Doctoral thesis, Chalmers University of Technology. Nässén J, Holmberg J, 2005. Energy efficiency - a forgotten goal in the Swedish building sector? Energy Policy, Vol. 33, Iss. 8, May 2005, Pages 1037-1051. Nässén J., Holmberg J., Wadeskog A., Nyman M., 2007. Direct and indirect energy use and carbon emissions in the production phase of buildings: An input–output analysis, Energy, Vol. 32, Iss. 9, 1593-1602. Nässén J, Holmberg J, 2009. Quantifying the rebound effects of energy efficiency improvements and energy conserving behaviour in Sweden, Energy Efficiency, Springer, In Press, Available online. Nässén J, Holmberg J, Larsson J, 2009. The effect of work hours on energy use: A micro-analysis of time and income effects. In Proceedings to ECEEE Summer Study, La Colle sur Loup, France 1–6 June 2009. Nässén J, Sprei F, Holmberg J, 2008. Stagnating energy efficiency in the Swedish building sector - Economic and organisational explanations, Energy Policy, Vol. 36, Issue 10, October 2008, Pages 3814-3822. Sprei F, 2007. Challenges for end-use energy efficiency-studies of residential heating and personal transportation in Sweden, Licentiate thesis, Chalmers University of Technology. Sprei F, Karlsson S and Holmberg J, 2007. Better performance or lower fuel consumption? Technological development in the Swedish new-car fleet 1975-2002. Accepted for publication in Transportation Research Part D. Sprei, F and Karlsson S, 2007a. Improved fuel consumption through downsizing. Rhetoric or reality? An analysis of the Swedish new car fleet. In Proceedings to The 11th World Conference on Transportation Research, Berkeley, USA, 24-28 June 2007. Sprei, F and Karlsson S, 2007b. The relation between technological and market development – its effects on fuel efficiency in the Swedish new car fleet. In Proceedings to The 11th World Conference on Transportation Research, Berkeley, USA, 24-28 June 2007.

  4. Rebound effect: Dependency on three dimensionless parameters 1. The price elasticity of the energy service 2. The profitability of the energy efficiency investment (investment / break-even investment) 3. The relative energy intensity of the energy service (in relation to the marginal energy intensity of consumption)

  5. ”Small car” ”Hybrid car” Ex. results Rebound effect for private transport Energy service price elasticity Profitability

  6. Quantification of rebound effects: 5 - 15 % for most investments Low - for early adoption of expensive technologies Low - if service demand is saturated High - up to 50 % for downsizing options High - for some radical innovations

  7. Swedish household consumption and energy use, 2006 Based on Swedish Household Budget Survey (2006) and input-output analysis of energy use

  8. + 10 % income  + 9 % energy use (also in multi-variate regression)

  9. Large variation

  10. Large variation High energy intensity (decile) Low energy intensity (decile)

  11. Large variation High energy intensity (decile) Factor 3.5 Low energy intensity (decile)

  12. Household consumption

  13. Household consumption

  14. I vilken riktning utvecklas konsumtionen?

  15. ?

  16. The effect of work hours on energy use • A micro-analysis of: • Income effects: marginal consumption of changing income • Time effects: marginal activity change of changing work time

  17. Energy intensity (MJ/hr) for different activities Calculated from Swedish Time Use Survey (2000/2001), Swedish Household Budget Survey (2006), and input-output analysis of energy use.

  18. Marginal time use

  19. Results • Income effect >> Time effect • A change in work time by 1 % cause a change in energy use by 0.8 % on average

  20. Energy intensity (J/h) Activity Happiness Sex 4,7 Socialising 4,0 Relaxing 3,9 Praying/meditating 3,8 Eating 3,8 Exercising 3,8 Watching TV 3,6 Shopping 3,2 Preparing food 3,2 Talking in phone 3,1 Taking care of children 3,0 Computer/internet 3,0 Housework 3,0 Working 2,7 Commuting 2,6 Very low (zero) Use of appliances: medium high Commuting: high

  21. Energy efficiency in cars: trends, technology, consumers and other actors

  22. Förändring i bränsle- Tekniska 30 Ökad service förbrukning förbättringar % Netto 20 viktökning 2/3 ökad service Högre acceleration 10 Större bilar 1985 0 1/3 minskad bränsle-förbrukning Fler hästkrafter/ cylindervolym -10 2002 -12 % Luftmotstånd Rullmostånd -20 Termisk effektivitet -30 Minskad friktion i drivlina -40 How has technical development been used between 85 and 02?

  23. Fuel consumption (l/100km)1985-2007

  24. Fuel consumption (l/100km)1985-2007

  25. Fuel consumption (l/100km)1985-2007

  26. Performance: max power (kW) 1985-2007

  27. Performance: max power(kW) 1985-2007 Diesel Petrol

  28. Performance: max power(kW) 1985-2007 Flexifuel Diesel Petrol

  29. Size: weight(kg) 1985-2007

  30. Size: weight (kg) 1985-2007 Diesel Petrol

  31. Size: weight(kg) 1985-2007 Diesel Flexifuel Petrol

  32. With petrol engine 201 g CO2/km 21% Diesel cars 166 g CO2/km With weight and power of petrol cars 139g CO2/km 17 % Based on data from 2007 of diesel och petrol cars with passenger space index in the range of 8500-10 000

  33. Demand side: 7 interviews with 9 customers Supply side: interviews with Swedish car producers, BilSweden, importers and dealers. Interview study

  34. Demand side It’s fun to own a car! The same or better car as previous + environmental concern Two environmental corncerns: One that acknowledges a trade off between performance and environmental concern One that does not acknowledge a trade off

  35. Demand side Environment Economy Emotion Elemental

  36. Supply side Customer or producer – who defines what cars are sold? Emotions important when selling cars Supplier acknowledge that customers have an increased environmental concern – this is seen as a paradigm shift There is a close relation with policy makers

  37. Tentative conclusions There is a challenge in making the environmental concern durable Regulations are important for long term stearing The media attention on climate change has acted as a facilitator for stricter regulations

  38. Studies of system aspects of plug-in hybrids (partly with AES-funding) Karlsson S & Ramírez, 2007. Plug-ins – a viable efficiency option? (In Proceedings to ECEEE 2007 Summer Study: Saving energy – just do it! La Colle sur Loup, France 4–9 June 2007.) Hedenus F, S Karlsson, C Azar, F Sprei, 2008. Electricity or hydrogen for transportation? System interactions between the transportation and stationary sectors in a carbon constrained world. Energi & Miljö, CTH. (I dokt. avh, Hedenus) Göransson L, S Karlsson, F Johnsson, 2009. Integration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in a regional wind-thermal power system, Energi & Miljö, Chalmers. (I lic uppsats, Göransson) Andersson Sara-Linnéa & Anna Elofsson, 2009. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles as Control Power. Case studies of Sweden and Germany. Examensarbete, Energi & Miljö, Chalmers. Karlsson S, 2009. Optimal size of PHEV batteries from a consumer perspective – estimation using car movement data and implications for data harvesting. In Proceedings to EVS24, Stavanger, May 13-16 2009. Hedenus F, S Karlsson, C Azar, F Sprei, 2009. The transportation energy carrier of the future. System interactions between the transportation and stationary sectors in a carbon constrained world. In Proceedings to EVS24, Stavanger, May 13-16 2009. Göransson, L., S Karlsson, F Johnsson, 2009. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a mean to reduce CO2 emissions from electricity production. In Proceedings to EVS24, Stavanger, May 13-16 2009.

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