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The State of the tanker industry IMSF Singapore 17 April 2007

This report provides insights into the current state of the tanker industry, including the high safety standards, low pollution rates, low average age of tankers, and the impact on earnings. It highlights the surplus of tonnage building up and the incidence of tanker accidents and pollution. The report also analyzes oil prices, VLCC freight rates, and the impact of tanker productivity. Furthermore, it examines the sources of oil imports and the increase in world oil demand. The report also discusses the tanker supply, fleet development, and the phase-out of single-hulled tankers.

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The State of the tanker industry IMSF Singapore 17 April 2007

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  1. The State of the tanker industry IMSF Singapore 17 April 2007 Erik.Ranheim@INTERTANKO.com Manager Research and Projects

  2. The State of the tanker Industry • High safety • Low pollution • Low age • High earnings – until now • Surplus of tonnage building up

  3. Pollution rate 1000 ts spilt per bn tonne miles carried bn tonne-m 1000 ts spilt Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys

  4. Tanker accidents and trade Bn tonne-miles trade 1000 ts spilt Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys

  5. Tanker incidents by cause 1978-1Q07 Number incidents Source: Based on incidents reports from Informa

  6. Tanker incidents by cause 2006 Source: Based on incident reports from Informa

  7. Accidental pollution from tankerslargest accidents and age Number incidents Average age Source: Informa/INTERTANKO

  8. Total losses, tankers and bulkers Number Source: Clarkson

  9. TankerMarket

  10. Oil price and VLCC freight rates $ per day freight rate $ per barrel oil price

  11. VLCC spot and break-even rates $ per day freight rate

  12. VLCC break-even rates $ per day freight rate

  13. Oil price and freight rate $/barrel Deflated by the Consumer Price Index (USD) Source: INTERTANKO

  14. Gasoline price at the pump $ per litre Source: INTERTANKO

  15. World oil demand - mbd mbd Source: IEA

  16. Oil consumption per capita litres Source: BP Review

  17. Oil consumption if world populations consumed oil as Americans mbd

  18. Seaborne oil trade and Middle East oil production '000 bil tm mbd Source: Fearnleys/IEA

  19. Seaborne oil trade and tanker fleet Source: Fearnleys/IEA

  20. Tanker productivity – tonne-miles/dwt Source: Fearnleys/IEA

  21. Sources of Asian oil imports Source: IEA

  22. Sources of European oil imports - mbd mbd Source: IEA

  23. Sources of US oil imports - mbd mbd Source: IEA

  24. Increase in world oil demand in ME*, USA, China and ROW** mbd FSU: +0.05 Other Asia: +0.18 L America: +0.09 Africa: +0.06 Source: IEA

  25. World oil supply - mbd mbd Source: IEA

  26. TankerSupply

  27. Tanker contracting m dwt $ bn VLCC 13. 4 $ bn Suezmax: 5.9 ” Aframax: 8.8 ” Panamax: 2.8 ” Handy: 22.9 ” (43%) Source: INTERTANKO/Clarkson Shipyard Monitor

  28. Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase outtankers above 30,000 dwt m dwt 79 m dwt 133 m dwt

  29. Phase out SH tankers above 30,000 dwt m dwt

  30. VLCCsmax phase out ,+ 4.5% trade increase, assume balanced marked end 2006 Number Fleet: 142 m dwt 487 ships Orderbook: 54 m dwt 177 ” Single hull: 42 m dwt 154 ” Average age: 9.4 years

  31. Suezmaxesmax phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 m dwt Fleet: 52 m dwt Orderbook: 20 m dwt Single hull: 9 m dwt Average age: 9.2 years Surplus end 2007: 1.8 m dwt ” 2008: 2.6 m dwt ” 2009: 8.1 m dwt ” 2010: 3.7 m dwt

  32. Conversion to DH Total 7. 2 m dwt Conversion to FPSO/FSO/bulk carriers, heavy lift ….(1.9 m dwt in 2006, 1.2 m dwt so far 2007

  33. Tanker deliveries, removals, min phase-out m dwt

  34. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out m dwt

  35. Tanker fleet double-hull development % Source: INTERTANKO

  36. Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

  37. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out m dwt

  38. Conclusion • Strong safety performance • Relatively strong demand development • Very strong fleet increase • Reduced earnings

  39. Tankers 30,000 - 59,999 dwtmin phase out, + 6 % trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 m dwt ..if 4.5% increase, no new orders needed before 2012

  40. VLCC fleet development Number m dwt Source: INTERTANKO

  41. Aframaxesmax phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 m dwt Fleet: 72 m dwt Orderbook: 28 m dwt Single hull: 14 m dwt Average age: 9.2 years Surplus end 2007: 1.5 m dwt ” 2008: 5.5 m dwt ” 2009: 12.0 m dwt 15% ” 2010: 5.3 m dwt 6%

  42. Aframaxesmax phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 m dwt Fleet: 72 m dwt Orderbook: 28 m dwt Single hull: 14 m dwt Average age: 9.2 years Surplus end 2007: 1.5 m dwt ” 2008: 5.5 m dwt ” 2009: 12.0 m dwt 15% ” 2010: 5.3 m dwt 6%

  43. Tankers 30,000 - 59,999 dwtmin phase out + 6 % trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 1,253 tankers 487 orders 228 phase out 11.1 years Number end 2007, 145 del - 45 phase out*, 75 increase demand = surplus 25 ships “ 2008, 157 “ - 17 “ 80 “ = “ 85 “ “ 2009, 127 “ - 18 “ 84 “ = “110 “ “ 2010, 56 “ - 93 “ 90 “ = “1 “

  44. Oil import by Panamaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

  45. Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

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