Chapter Twelve

1. Chapter Twelve Military Power, Coercive Diplomacy, and National Security

2. Elements of Power • power: the factors that enable one state to coerce another • power potential: the relative capabilities of a state considered essential to asserting influence over others • military capability • military expenditures • relative size of economy

3. Elements of Power, continued • population size • territorial size • geographic position • raw materials • dependence on foreign raw materials • technological level and capacity • national character

4. Elements of Power, continued • ideology • efficiency of government decision making • industrial productivity • trade volume • savings and investment • education level • national morals • internal solidarity

5. Figure 12.1: The Military Race for Hegemony: How U.S. Military Spending Stacks Up against Its Primary Competitors

6. Map 12.1: Two Measures of Military Power Potential: State Wealth and Size of National Armies

7. Map 12.2: Two Measures of Military Power Potential: State Wealth and Size of National Armies

8. The Changing Character of World Power • decreased utility of military power • increased importance of technology, education, and economic growth • military spending: • opportunity costs • peace dividend • relative burden of military spending • “guns versus butter”

9. Figure 12.2: Changes in the Levels of Military Expenditures since 1960, Global North and Global South

10. Weapons Trade • spurred by Cold War • peaked in 1987 at $82 billion • Middle East and Asia are major recipients • Middle East arms race: regional rivalries • United States is leading supplier • military-industrial complex

11. Figure 12.3: Arms Deliveries to the Global North and Global South, 1996–2003

12. Nuclear Weapons in 2004 • U.S. 10,350 • Russia 8400 • France 400 • China 400 • Britain 200 • India ~50 • Pakistan ~50 • Israel ~200 • North Korea ??

13. Nuclear Weapons, continued • about 22 states and groups seek nukes • Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty • horizontal nuclear proliferation • vertical nuclear proliferation • United States rejected Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1998 • tensions between India and Pakistan

14. Map 12.3: Nuclear-Weapon Armed Countries, Today and Tomorrow

15. Figure 12.4: Caging the Nuclear Threat: The Rise and Fall of Deployed Strategic U.S. and Russian Warheads

16. Technology and Weapons • MIRVs: multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles • nonlethal weapons: incapacitate people, vehicles, communications systems • smart bombs • strategic weapons: weapons of mass destruction on ICBMs, SLBMs, long-range bombers

17. Technology and Weapons, cont. • firebreak • virtual nuclear arsenals • deterrence • information warfare • nuclear winter

18. The Security Dilemma • “each party’s power increments are matched by the others, and all wind up with no more security than when the vicious cycle began, along with the costs incurred in having acquired and having to maintain their power”--Snyder • spiral model

19. Compellence • compellence: when U.S. was dominant nuclear power • brinksmanship: John Foster Dulles threatened adversaries with nuclear war • massive retaliation • countervalue targeting: Soviet industry and population (as opposed to counterforce targeting of weapons) • Cuban Missile Crisis

20. Mutual Deterrence • requires second-strike capability • MAD: mutually assured destruction • nuclear utilization theory (NUTs): advocated by some Americans; nuclear weapons could be used in a war • Strategic Defense Initiative: President Reagan’s “Star Wars”

21. Preemption • counterfactual reasoning: did nuclear weapons foster peace? • Bush and preemptive strikes • preemptive war and just war theory • asymmetrical warfare

22. Coercive Diplomacy • “an approach to bargaining between states engaged din a crisis in which threats or the use of limited force are made to force an adversary to reach a compromise” • ultimatums • gunboat diplomacy • military intervention

23. Military Intervention • overt or covert use of force by one or more states inside another state • covert operations: secret activities • can heighten tensions and lead to war • nonintervention norm • intervention can be for moral or humanitarian reasons • failed states

24. Sanctions • punitive actions for previous objectionable behavior • common tool of coercive diplomacy • alternative to military force • boycotts • occasional successes, but often failure

25. Map 12.4: Vulnerable to Sanctions–Countries Dependent on Trade and Energy Imports

26. Map 12.5: Vulnerable to Sanctions–Countries Dependent on Trade and Energy Imports

27. Five Goals of Sanctions 1. compliance: alter behavior of target 2. subversion: topple leader from power 3. deterrence: of objectionable behavior 4. international symbolism: send messages to other actors 5. domestic symbolism: to gain support from own populace by taking action

28. U.S. National Security Strategy • Win the war against terrorism • maintain hegemonic position as global superpower • “regime change” in Iraq • seek global support for U.S. actions

29. U.S. National Security Strategy, continued • halt or slow proliferation of weapons of mass destruction • pursue advanced military technology • be capable of fighting and winning two regional wars simultaneously • maintain U.S. technological superiority • promote democracy abroad

30. Bush Doctrine United States will • behave globally in terms of perceived national interest • act without approval of others, if necessary • use unilateral military action

31. Russia National Security Strategy • strategic partnership with NATO • strategic partnership with United States • closer relationship with EU • integrate into global institutions: WTO • smaller, better equipped and trained military • contain civil/regional unrest • repealing no-first-use pledge on nuclear weapons

32. China National Security Strategy • increase economic growth • integrate further into global economy • modernize military • maintain strategic arsenal of nuclear weapons • deter invasions • develop military capabilities to capture Taiwan, if necessary

33. Japan National Security Strategy • reverse economic decline • participate in UN peacekeeping • increase defense expenditures • maintain military technology lead over China • foreign assistance to Global South • integration into global economy and institutions

34. Germany/European Union National Security Strategy • Germany • size, economic strength, location • nearly 40% of EU GNP • increased diplomatic independence • renewed militarism unlikely • Europe as emerging superpower • European focus on neoliberal institutionalism

35. Discussion • In what ways has the high level of military spending in the United States had domestic consequences? • In what ways is military power still important? • Describe and assess the various components of America’s power.

36. Discussion, continued • Why would the United States want to sell arms abroad? • In what instances could coercive diplomacy be useful? • What should be the national security strategy of the United States?