The Demography of Australian Ageing over the Next Decade: Certainties, Surprises and Implications for Government by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre , The University of Adelaide Presentation to COTA National Policy Forum, National Press Club, Canberra 22 July 2014
Outline of Presentation • Introduction • The Growth of Australia’s Older Population • Drivers of Ageing in Australia • Changing Composition • Changing Distribution • Implications for Government Policy • Conclusion
Key Issues • The Certainties of the Demography of Ageing • There are no policy “silver bullets” • Australia is well placed demographicallyto accommodate the change • However initiation of a range of initiatives needs to be done now • An opportunity as well as a challenge
Four Certainties of the Demography of Ageing in Australia • Population aged 65+ will increase by 85% between 2011 and 2031 • Percentage aged 65+ will increase from 13.8 in 2011 to 18.7 in 2031 • The characteristics of the older population will change • Their spatial distribution will change
Australia: Population Change by Age, 2011 and Projected 2031Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population and 2031 Projections Series B
Australia: Comparison of Projected Growth of Population, 2031Source: ABS 2013 Projections
Australia: Age Sex Distribution, 2011 and Projected 2031Source: ABS 2011 Census; ABS Projections, Series B, 2013
WHY IS AUSTRALIA’S POPULATION AGEING? • Fertility – the rate at which women in that area were having children 65-90 years ago. • Mortality – the rate at which older people are lost to death. • Migration – the extent to which older people move into or out of the area. • The ‘ageing in place’ of residents in the area into the 65+ age groups.
Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901-2012Source: CBCS, Demography and ABS, Births Australia, various issues
Australia: Age Structure 1961 to 2011 Showing Baby Boomer CohortSource: ABS Censuses
Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2011Source:Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins Expectation of Life at Birth Males Females 1947 66.1 70.6 1981 71.4 78.4 2011 79.7 84.2
Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2011Source: ABS
Key Questions on Longevity • Are we increasing the maximum age people can reach or are just a greater proportion getting closer to the maximum age which remains fixed? • Proportion of years spent with and without disability, concept of disability free years
Are Baby Boomers Healthier than Previous Generations? • Baby boomers are in many ways a privileged generation being the first generation to grow up in an era of increasing affluence and prosperity. • They have unprecedentedly high levels of education compared with earlier generations. • They grew up in an era of expanding job and educational opportunities. • They were the first generation to grow up having access to immunisation and antibiotics. • They have substantially lower levels of smoking than previous generations.
Are Baby Boomers Less Healthy than Previous Generations? • Firstly, the very medical breakthroughs which have ‘rescued’ baby boomers from dying of a heart attack or stroke like the previous generation may in fact leave them with a chronic illness or disability. • Secondly, baby boomers, more than previous generations, have adopted sedentary life styles and have a higher incidence of obesity than any previous generation.
Uncertainty About This Question in Australia • Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2010 found in high income countries decrease in mortality offset by increased years of living with disability • In Australia suggestion that this has not been the case but there is a lack of data to be definitive
Proportion of the Population with Disabilities, 1981-2012Source: ABS, 1999 and 2013b
Australia: Disaggregation of Life Expectancy Into ‘Disability Free’ and ‘With Disability’ Years, 1998 and 2012 (Years)Source: AIHW, 2014, 3
Unrecognised burden of mental illness especially dementia (Global Burden of Disease Study) • Access Economics – Number with dementia 2011: 266,574 2030: 553,285 2050: 942,624 • Recent evidencethat these numbers can be substantially reduced by lifestyle and diet adjustments
Australia:A Country of Immigration • 26.1 percent born overseas in 2011 • 18.8 percent Australia-born with an overseas-born parent(s) in 2011 • 908,049 persons temporarily present at 30 June 2011 • Without postwar migration the Australian population would be less than 13 million • 19.2 percent of Australian households use a language other than English at home
Australia: Age-Sex Distribution of Recent Permanent Settler Arrivals, 2012-13Source: DIAC unpublished data
Australia: Settler Arrivals by Region of Last Residence, 1947 to 1996 and Permanent Additions by Region of Birth, 1997 to 2013Source: DIBP data
Australia: Australia-born and Overseas-born Age-Sex Distribution, 2011Source: ABS 2011 Census
Australia : Persons Aged 65+ years by Birthplace, 2011Source: ABS 2011 Census
Australia: Indian Ancestry and India-Born by Age and Sex, 2011Source: ABS, 2011 Census
Australia: Age Pension Paid Overseas by Country of Residence, June 2011Source: Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, 2012
Role of Immigration in Ageing • Slight younging effect • Greatest positive impact is its impact on productivity • Increasing diversity of Australia’s older population
The Characteristics of Older People • Age VsCohort effects • The Baby Boomers are quite different to previous generations of older Australians when they were on the verge of retirement • Must not assume it will be “more of the same” in working, housing, spending, use of leisure, needs and demand for services etc
Australia: Baby Boomers and Pre-war Generation As They Enter Old Age, Social IndicatorsSource: ABS National Health Surveys 1989-90 and 2008-09; ABS Census 1981 and 2006
Some Key Considerations • The extent to which baby boomers will be able to call upon a partner or a child to assist in their day to day care will be considerably less than the previous generation of older Australians. Yet policy is to increase the proportion of care being delivered at home rather than in a residential care context. • The proportion of baby boomers owning their home outright will be less than is currently the case. Yet home ownership is one of the three pillars of the Australian aged care system. • Increasing cultural diversity presents many challenges in aged care provision because until relatively recently the population aged 85+ was overwhelmingly Anglo Celtic in origin.
Australia: Persons 15 Years and Over, Visited a GP 12 or More Times in the Previous 12 MonthsSource: ABS, 2012
Health Status at Mid-life: Baby Boomers Compared with Pre-war GenerationSource: ABS; National Health Surveys, 1989-90, 2007-08
Differences Within the Baby Boomer Generation • Dangers of stereotyping • Need to look at variations within • First generation to develop highly segmented markets
Australia: Average Household Net Worth by Age of the Household Reference Person, 1994-2012Source: ABS, 2002, 2007 and 2013c
Housing Tenure Australia: Tenure by Age, 2011 Source: ABS 2011 Census
Comparison of Owners and Renters: Chronic ConditionsSource: SAMSS, 2007-13
A DIFFERENT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION Where older people live is important for a number of reasons: • Older people have lower levels of personal mobility which means they are restricted in their ability to travel long distances to obtain services and interact. • Housing is often the major element in older people’s assets. • Their local area is often where their main social contacts are located. • Their home can hold many important memories crucial to their wellbeing.
Australia: Persons Who Moved in the Last Five Years by Age, 2001-06 and 2006-11Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses
To What Extent Will Baby Boomers Move As They Near Retirement? • In the United States there is a clear secondary peaking in the age migration profile around retirement ages • No evidence in 2011 Australian Census internal migration data • Delaying due to increased workforce participation?
Australia: Changes in Participation Rates of the Older Population in the Workforce, 1970-2014Source: ABS Labour Force Surveys
Mixed Evidence of Increased Retirement Migration by Baby Boomers • Beer and Faulkner (2009, 133) found 41.5% of persons aged 55-64 had moved in last 10 years • Olsberg and Winters (2005) found two thirds want to remain in their own homes
Australia: Rest of State Age-Sex Specific Net Migration Profile, 2006-2011Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses
Growth of Population 2006-11 *Clear evidence of sea change type migration
The Potential Role of Second Homes (Study of 9 Councils) • Located in resort areas, mostly coastal • 45% owned by baby boomers • 30.7% have definite intentions to move permanently to them – others will increase the amount of time spent there
Age structure of persons intending to move to non resident owned property
Changing Distribution within Cities • Preference shown to “age in place” • However often attachment is to a local community rather than a particular house • Concept of “age appropriate housing” • Unknown whether baby boomers will move more but even if they move to the same extent there will be a large impact because of their greater numbers