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Impact of METRO Bus Line Reductions on Transit Quality: A Comprehensive Analysis

This research explores the effects of reducing METRO bus lines on transit quality in Los Angeles. It examines whether these reductions significantly degrade access to transit, evaluates the impact on transit-dependent areas, and identifies existing alternatives. Through a Transit Quality Index constructed from various need and congestion factors, findings suggest that while the elimination of rapid lines degrades quality for high-need riders, alternatives exist for north/south routes, though not for east/west routes. Recommendations for refining the assessment of transit quality are also discussed.

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Impact of METRO Bus Line Reductions on Transit Quality: A Comprehensive Analysis

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  1. Going Nowhere Fast? Roy Samaan 14 March 2011 UP 206 A • Effects of Service Reduction on Transit Quality

  2. Roadmap • Research Basis • Review of Previous Conclusions • Examination of New Variables • Use of New Variables to Construct Transit Quality Index • Summary of Findings • Conclusion • Need for Refinement • Questions

  3. Central Policy Questions • Does the elimination of METRO bus lines significantly degrade access to transit? • How is quality of transit in most transit dependent tracts affected? • Are there existing alternatives to eliminated service?

  4. Poverty Rates Around Cancelled Lines

  5. Poverty Rates Around Existing Rapid Lines

  6. DEC 2010: Access Maintained, Quality Reduced • Only East/West Rapid Buses connecting SE LA & SW LA are eliminated & replaced with local service • Rapids connected high poverty areas with transit hubs & job centers

  7. No Additional East/West Rapids Within 1mile of Cancelled Rapid Lines • Standard walk distance is ¼ mile • Cancelled North/South Rapids are within1 mile of existing Rapid service

  8. Cancelled Rapid Lines Are in High Usage Corridors • Transit usage in study area high among those earning less than $65k • Indicates strong preference for public transit, if not outright transit dependency

  9. Poverty is Useful For Predicting Need, Not Quality of Service • Quality of Service based on multiple factors: • Congestion, transit dependency factors, and speed of rapid bus relative to local bus contribute to service quality • Combining indexed Need Factors and Congestion Factors Gives a rough estimate of service quality

  10. Generation of Need Index • Need Index = (% Poverty in tract + % under 18 + % 65 and up + Usage Intensity) • Weighted towards toward FTA-defined transit dependency variables • Intensity of use given slightly more weight than other factors

  11. Comparison of Need Score vs. Poverty • Highest need scores do not correlate directly to highest poverty • Cancelled rapid lines covered need areas not currently covered by existing rapid service

  12. Calculation of Congestion Index • Factors examined include: • Existing bus stop density, local line density, rapid line density, roadway density and took into account rapid line speed relative to local line speed • Densities were calculated using the following formula: • Attribute Density = (Attribute/Area)*(Population/Area) => [Attribute *population/(Area*Area)] • Spatial joins, field calculator and field geometry used to generate data • Stop density and road density weighted least; rapid density highest

  13. How does Congestion Score Correlated to Poverty? • High poverty tracts around cancelled east/west lines are only moderately congested relative to DTLA & SFV

  14. Combining Need Index and Congestion Index • Very few High Need areas also had high congestion • However, the higher the poverty rate, the higher the average index scores

  15. Creating Transit Quality Index • Need Index scores were weighted slightly higher than Congestion Index scores • Calculated TQI for each census tract • It looks like this….

  16. Computation of Transit Quality Index

  17. Countywide Transit Quality Scores • Cancelled rapid lines were an efficient way to get from one low transit quality area to another

  18. Summary of Findings • Does the elimination of METRO bus lines significantly degrade access to transit? No. • How is quality of transit in most transit dependent tracts affected? Negatively. • Are there existing alternatives to eliminated service? Yes for north/south Rapid lines; No for east/west Rapid lines

  19. Conclusions • Cancelled rapid lines, especially east/west lines, served high poverty riders • These lines served census tracts with high need scores and with lower congestion costs than other parts of the city • The loss of these lines reduces the transit quality in southeast and southwest Los Angeles

  20. Necessary Refinement • Both Need and Congestion Indices only give rough estimates • Correlating high index scores with demographic data beyond poverty rates • Analysis of forthcoming and proposed (30/10) rail lines

  21. Questions?

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