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Juan Ruiz 1,2 , Celeste Saulo 1,2 , Soledad Cardazzo 1 , Eugenia Kalnay 3

Juan Ruiz 1,2 , Celeste Saulo 1,2 , Soledad Cardazzo 1 , Eugenia Kalnay 3

3. 1. 2. Probabilistic Cuantitative Precipitation Forecast Calibration and Verification over South America. Juan Ruiz 1,2 , Celeste Saulo 1,2 , Soledad Cardazzo 1 , Eugenia Kalnay 3 1 Departamento de Cs. de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (FCEyN-UBA),

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Canadian ensemble forecasts

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Verifying Ensemble Forecasts

Verifying Ensemble Forecasts

Verifying Ensemble Forecasts. Ensemble Forecasts. Types of ensembles Multiple initial conditions (anonymous members) Multi-model (tractable members). Verifying a distribution forecast. Outcomes of probabilistic forecasts. Troubled Rank Histograms. For a Poorman’s ensemble.

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Hurricane Genesis Ensemble Forecasts

Hurricane Genesis Ensemble Forecasts

Hurricane Genesis Ensemble Forecasts. Jiayi Peng *, Yuejian Zhu and Richard Wobus * * IMSG at Environmental Modeling Center Environmental Modeling Center /NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD 20740 Acknowledgements: EMC Ensemble Team, EMC HWRF Team Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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Post-Processing of Ensemble Forecasts

Post-Processing of Ensemble Forecasts

Post-Processing of Ensemble Forecasts. Tim Stockdale / Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Outline. Motivation Methods Training data sets Results. Motivation. Raw ENS forecasts are subject to forecast bias and dispersion errors, i.e. uncalibrated

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A Regression Model for Ensemble Forecasts

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Common verification methods for ensemble forecasts

Common verification methods for ensemble forecasts

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Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts

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Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts. Laurence J. Wilson Atmospheric Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada. Goals of this session. Increase understanding of scores used for probability forecast verification Characteristics, strengths and weaknesses

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Streamflow assimilation for improving ensemble streamflow forecasts

Streamflow assimilation for improving ensemble streamflow forecasts

Streamflow assimilation for improving ensemble streamflow forecasts. G. Thirel (1), E. Martin (1), J.-F. Mahfouf (1), S. Massart (2), S. Ricci (2), F. Regimbeau (3), F. Habets (4). CNRM-GAME, Météo-France, CNRS, GMME, France, CERFACS, France,

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Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type

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