'Brier score' diaporamas de présentation

EPS Diagnostic Tools

EPS Diagnostic Tools. Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. A forecast has skill if it predicts the observed conditions well according to some objective or subjective criteria.

581 views • 44 slides

Two Consolidation Projects:

Two Consolidation Projects:. Towards an International MME: CFS+EUROSIP(UKMO,ECMWF,METF) 11 slides Towards a National MME: CFS and GFDL 18 slides. Does the NCEP CFS add to the skill of the European DEMETER-3 to produce a viable International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ?.

517 views • 40 slides

Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts

Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts. Laurence J. Wilson Atmospheric Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada. Goals of this session. Increase understanding of scores used for probability forecast verification Characteristics, strengths and weaknesses

490 views • 40 slides

Two Consolidation Projects:

Two Consolidation Projects:. Towards an International MME: CFS+EUROSIP(UKMO,ECMWF,METF) 11 slides Towards a National MME: CFS and GFDL 18 slides. Does the NCEP CFS add to the skill of the European DEMETER-3 to produce a viable International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ?.

401 views • 40 slides

Huug van den Dool / Dave Unger Consolidation of Multi-Method Seasonal Forecasts at CPC. Part I

Huug van den Dool / Dave Unger Consolidation of Multi-Method Seasonal Forecasts at CPC. Part I. LAST YEAR / THIS YEAR:. Last Year: Ridge Regression as a Consolidation Method, to yield, potentially, non-equal weights. This Year: see new Posters on Consolidation by

350 views • 34 slides

Measuring Forecaster Performance

Measuring Forecaster Performance. Lt Col James E. Kajdasz, Ph.D., USAF. Scholarship of Intelligence Analysis.

422 views • 31 slides

Dynamical Forecasting

511 views • 30 slides

Predicted Rainfall Estimation in the Huaihe River Basin Based on TIGGE

Predicted Rainfall Estimation in the Huaihe River Basin Based on TIGGE. Fuyou Tian, Dan Qi, Jingyue Di, and Linna Zhao National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration tianfy@cma.gov.cn 15 September 2009. Outline:. Data and Test Catchment

429 views • 29 slides

Predicted Rainfall Estimation in the Huaihe River Basin Based on TIGGE

Predicted Rainfall Estimation in the Huaihe River Basin Based on TIGGE. Fuyou Tian, Dan Qi, Jingyue Di, and Linna Zhao National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration tianfy@cma.gov.cn 15 September 2009. Outline:. Data and Test Catchment

300 views • 29 slides

Huug van den Dool and Steve Lord International Multi Model Ensemble

Huug van den Dool and Steve Lord International Multi Model Ensemble. Two Consolidation Projects:. Towards an International MME: CFS+EUROSIP(UKMO,ECMWF,METF) 11 slides Towards a National MME: CFS and GFDL, and NCAR/ CCM3.0/3.5 and NASA/GFSC 18 slides.

394 views • 26 slides

The Impact of Lightning Density Input on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasts

The Impact of Lightning Density Input on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasts. Mark DeMaria, John Knaff and Debra Molenar, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO Robert T. DeMaria CIRA/CSU Fort Collins, CO Michael J. Brennan, NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

361 views • 25 slides

Evaluation of Potential Performance Measures for the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Evaluation of Potential Performance Measures for the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Gary A. Wick NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory On Rotational Assignment with the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development November 2003. Overview.

344 views • 25 slides

Assessment of prediction error of risk prediction models

Assessment of prediction error of risk prediction models. Thomas Gerds and Martin Schumacher Institute of Medical Biometry and Medical Informatics University Hospital Freiburg, Germany. Outline. Situation Measures of prediction error Application to prediction of breast cancer survival

420 views • 24 slides

Multi Model Ensembles CTB Transition Project Team Report

Multi Model Ensembles CTB Transition Project Team Report. Suranjana Saha, EMC (chair) Huug van den Dool, CPC Arun Kumar, CPC February 2007. TWO STUDIES WERE CONDUCTED USING THE CFS AND EUROPEAN DEMETER DATA TO EVALUATE THE FOLLOWING : How extensive (long) should hindcasts be?

332 views • 23 slides

Mark DeMaria and John A. Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO

Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasting Using Lightning Data during the 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center. Mark DeMaria and John A. Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO Michael Brennan and John L. Beven , National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

305 views • 18 slides

Jeff Duda, Xuguang Wang, Fanyou Kong, Ming Xue

Toward Improving Representation of Model Microphysics Errors in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble: Evaluation and Diagnosis of mixed-Microphysics and Perturbed Microphysics Parameter Ensembles in the 2011 HWT Spring Experiment. Jeff Duda, Xuguang Wang, Fanyou Kong, Ming Xue

270 views • 17 slides

Jeff Duda, Xuguang Wang, Fanyou Kong, Ming Xue

Toward Improving Representation of Model Microphysics Errors in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble: Evaluation and Diagnosis of mixed-Microphysics and Perturbed Microphysics Parameter Ensembles in the 2011 HWT Spring Experiment. Jeff Duda, Xuguang Wang, Fanyou Kong, Ming Xue

304 views • 17 slides

Statistical Assessment of Event Predictors

285 views • 15 slides

118 views • 4 slides

Introduction

. Effects of Cross-Correlation between Ensemble Members on Forecasting Accuracy. Ensemble data matrix, X. Number of ensemble member, p 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 15, 20, 30, 50, 100. Kim, Young-Oh 1 ) / Seo , Young-Ho 2 ) / Park, Dong Kwan 3)

169 views • 1 slides