'Forecast errors' diaporamas de présentation

Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies

Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies. Adaptive and Rational Expectations. Adaptive Expectations. Adaptive Expectations Expectations depend on past experience only. Expectations are a weighted average of past experiences. Expectations change slowly over time.

1.49k views • 94 slides

2.52k views • 79 slides

Forecasting for climate policy: CO 2 , global temperatures, and alarms

Forecasting for climate policy: CO 2 , global temperatures, and alarms. J. Scott Armstrong The Wharton School, U. of Pennsylvania, USA armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu Kesten C. Green Business and Economic Forecasting, Monash University, Australia. kesten@me.com Andreas Graefe

656 views • 55 slides

An experimental seasonal hydrologic forecast system for the western U.S.

An experimental seasonal hydrologic forecast system for the western U.S. Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for Cincinnati Earth Systems Science Seminar Series and Advanced Environmental Seminar Series

1.02k views • 48 slides

773 views • 47 slides

Time Series Analysis

Time Series Analysis. Autocorrelation Naive & Simple Averaging Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Regression Analysis. Time Series Models. Trends: linear moving average, exponential smoothing, Regression, growth curves Seasonality:

1.36k views • 40 slides

Module 4. Forecasting

609 views • 31 slides

DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES. Qualitative & Quantitative . Outline. Introduction Demand Forecasting Forecasting Techniques Qualitative Methods Quantitative Methods Components of Time Series Data Time Series Forecasting Methods Forecast Accuracy Useful Forecasting Websites

2.89k views • 27 slides

Overview of U.S. Treasury Debt Management

Overview of U.S. Treasury Debt Management. Karthik Ramanathan Director Office of Debt Management June 2008. Contents. Overview and Objectives Composition of Portfolio Determinants of Borrowing Needs and Policy Tools International Investments Overview of TIPS Program.

445 views • 24 slides

Youth Corrections Forecast

376 views • 24 slides

Sketch-based Change Detection

353 views • 24 slides

International Finance

International Finance. Forecasting Exchange Rates. Why Firms Forecast XRs. Hedging decisions Hedging payables and receivables Short-term financing decisions Which currency to borrow in Low rate, weakening currency. Why Firms Forecast XRs. Short-term investment decisions

395 views • 22 slides

Tropical Cyclones Characteristics and Forecasting

Tropical Cyclones Characteristics and Forecasting. Horace H. P. Burton and Selvin DeC. Burton Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology. Outline. Introduction Definitions Characteristics Forecast Methods Forecast errors Probability forecasts. Definitions.

534 views • 19 slides

Hurricane Eye Formation

Hurricane Eye Formation. Jonathan Vigh NCAR Earth Systems Laboratory & Advanced Study Program Research Review 10:00 AM 27 May 2010 FL1-2033 . NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The Hurricane Problem. Hurricane Katrina at least 1836 deaths

349 views • 19 slides

FINANCE 7. Capital Budgeting (2)

389 views • 18 slides

FINANCE 7. Capital Budgeting (2)

352 views • 18 slides

Massive Uncertainty

Massive Uncertainty. Dr. Richard de Neufville Professor of Systems Engineering and Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Massive Uncertainty. Objective: To present realistic context of forecasting exercise Topics Evidence Consequences.

295 views • 17 slides

EnKF and EnKF -GSI Hybrid Development and Testing for (right now) Rapid Refresh Configurations

EnKF and EnKF -GSI Hybrid Development and Testing for (right now) Rapid Refresh Configurations. OU Team (Ming Xue , Kefeng Zhu and Yujie Pan, Xuguang Wang) in collaboration with ESRL (Jeff Whitaker, Stan Benjamin, Steve Weygandt , Ming Hu) and EMC (Dave Parrish), et al .

254 views • 13 slides

Forecasting Performance Measures

Forecasting Performance Measures. Comparing Forecasting Techniques. There is more than one approach that can be used to generate a forecast from a set of time series values. For the stationary Yoho model we used: Last Period 4-Period Moving Average

193 views • 10 slides

Four Months

Kevin McShane Homework Problem 5-12 Develop a four month moving average forecast for Wallace Garden Supply And compute the MAD. Data found in Table 5.3 . Four Months. QM Calculated MAD along with other calculations. The formula is Sum of forecast errors / n . Measure Value

274 views • 3 slides