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BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 14, 2010

BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 14, 2010

BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 14, 2010. Moving Averages. F t (1) is average of last m observations Issue is to choose m Most appropriate if series is random variation around a mean This is the case if all autocorrelations are near zero

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459 views • 33 slides
IENG 215

IENG 215

IENG 215. Estimating. Sales Budget. Desired Ending Inventory. Production Budget. Direct Material. Direct Labor. Factory Overhead. Cost of Good Sold Budget. Selling Expense. Admin Expense. Budgeted Income. Capital Budget. Budgeted Balance. Cash Budget. Sales Forecast.

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420 views • 33 slides
BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 11, 2014

BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 11, 2014

BABS 502 Moving Averages, Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Revised March 11, 2014. Single Exponential Smoothing. One-step ahead forecast is the weighted average of current value and past forecast F t (1) = a( Current Value)+ (1- a ) Past Forecast = a X t + (1- a ) F t-1 (1)

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Lecture 7: Forecasting: Putting it ALL together

Lecture 7: Forecasting: Putting it ALL together

Lecture 7: Forecasting: Putting it ALL together. The full model. The model with seasonality, quadratic trend, and ARMA components can be written: Ummmm, say what???? The autoregressive components allow us to control for the fact that data is directly related to itself over time.

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322 views • 18 slides

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