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FNCE 4070 Financial Markets and Institutions

FNCE 4070 Financial Markets and Institutions . Lecture 5: Part 2 Forecasting With the Term Structure of Interest Rates (1) Forecasting Business Cycle Turning Points (A Recession) (2) Forecasting Future Interest Rates (Estimating Forward Rates)

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2.3 The Long-Term Spot Rate

2.3 The Long-Term Spot Rate . the long term spot rate. Empirical research (Cairns 1998) suggests that l(t) fluctuates substantially over long periods of time. None of the models we will examine later in this book allow l(t) to decrease over time.

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FNCE 4070 Financial Markets and Institutions

2.3 The Long-Term Spot Rate