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Taking Uncertainty Into Account: Bias Issues Arising from Uncertainty in Risk Models

Taking Uncertainty Into Account: Bias Issues Arising from Uncertainty in Risk Models. John A. Major, ASA Guy Carpenter & Company, Inc. Example: Exponential Distribution. N=20 observations T = sample mean; l =1 true mean MLE EP curve: q-exceedance point (PML, VaR) X .01 = 4.605 actual.

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1. Note that whites have a higher overall mortality rate

Example of distortion in aggregated versus disaggregated results. Annual death rates per 1,000 population, by age, Baltimore city, 1965. 1. Note that whites have a higher overall mortality rate. 2. Yet in each subgroup, whites have a lower mortality rate.

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Taking Uncertainty Into Account: Bias Issues Arising from Uncertainty in Risk Models

1. Note that whites have a higher overall mortality rate