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Turkey : Struck by the Global Crisis, on Her Way to Recovery, and Still Transforming

Turkey : Struck by the Global Crisis, on Her Way to Recovery, and Still Transforming December 11, 2009. Some Food for Thought. What are the basic problems the world system seems to be facing at the moment?

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Turkey : Struck by the Global Crisis, on Her Way to Recovery, and Still Transforming

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  1. Turkey : Struck by the Global Crisis, on Her Way to Recovery, and Still Transforming December 11, 2009 1

  2. Some Food for Thought • What are the basic problems the world system seems to be facing at the moment? • Are global imbalances here to stay or will they be eliminated surely but slowly or even better quite fast? • What will the engine of growth for the world economy or are there none in sight at the moment? • How likely is decoupling in the near future? • How is an important and sizeable emerging market like Turkey affected in this crisis and are there any stories that come from hers? • Are there any paradigmatic shifts in the way analysts may be thinking about growth dynamics in emerging markets? • What does the fiscal picture look like for developed and emerging market economies going forward ? 2

  3. GDP Growth Source: TURKSTAT 3

  4. GDP Growth Source: TURKSTAT 4

  5. Public and Private Sectors’ Contributions to Growth Source: TURKSTAT 5

  6. Net Exports’ Contribution to Growth Source: TURKSTAT 6

  7. Contributions to Growth Source: TURKSTAT 7

  8. Sectors’ Contributions Source: TURKSTAT 8

  9. Contributions to Growth Source: TURKSTAT 9

  10. Private Fixed Capital Investments Source: TURKSTAT 10

  11. Growth Forecasts Source: YK Economic Research 11

  12. Industrial Production (YoY Growth) Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research 12

  13. Industrial Production : MoM Growth ( Seasonally and Effective Days Adjusted Series ) Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research 13

  14. Industrial Production : Sector Growth Rates Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research 14

  15. Industrial Production :September / Contributions Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research 15

  16. Impact Assessment at the Subsector Level 16

  17. Impact Assessment at the Subsector Level 17

  18. Impact Assessment at the Subsector Level 18

  19. Impact Assessment at the Subsector Level 19

  20. Capacity Utilization 20

  21. Sources of Capacity Underutilization 21

  22. Non-Farm Unemployment Rate (%) Source: TURKSTAT 22

  23. Thresholds for TRY/USD Exchange Rate Source: YK Economic Research 23

  24. Inflation Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research 24

  25. Contributions to Monthly Inflation Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research 25

  26. Contributions to Yearly Inflation Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research 26

  27. Inflation Source: TURKSTAT 27

  28. Inflation: Goods vs. Services Source: CBRT 28

  29. Inflation Expectations Source: CBRT 29

  30. Gross External Debt Profile of Turkey Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 30

  31. GENERAL GOVERNMENT NOMINAL DEBT STOCK (EU-DEFINITION) / GDP Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 31

  32. General government consolidated gross debt as a percentage of GDP Source: EUROSTAT 32

  33. Net Public Debt Stock / GDP Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 33

  34. Net Public Debt Stock / GDP Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 34

  35. Central Administration Budget- 2009 Realizations Source: General Directorate of Public Accounts, YK Economic Research 35

  36. Revenues vs. Non-interest Expenditures (Real) Source: General Directorate of Public Accounts, YK Economic Research 36

  37. External Balance Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research 37

  38. Financial Account (6-Month Rolling) Source: Turkstat, YK Economic Research 38

  39. Financial Account (6-Month Rolling) Source: Turkstat, YK Economic Research 39

  40. Primary Surplus (% of GDP) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, YK Economic Research 40

  41. Current Account Deficit (12-Month Rolling) Source: CBRT, TDM, YK Economic Research 41

  42. Non-Debt Financing of CA Deficit Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research 42

  43. FDI ($ bln) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, YK Economic Research 43

  44. Bond Rates & O/N Source: ISE, CBRT 44

  45. Real Interest Rate & Real Exchange Rate * deflated via CPI ** CPI based, 1995=100 Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT 45

  46. Shares in Bond Stock Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research 46

  47. Bond Stocks (Billion TL) Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research 47

  48. Consumer Credits (% ch of 8W rolling) Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research 48

  49. Commercial Credits (% ch of 8W rolling) Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research 49

  50. CBRT Expectations Survey Source: CBRT 50

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