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African Energy F utures

Africa faces a landscape of robust economic growth largely driven by commodity prices, yet this is coupled with significant challenges, including income inequality, environmental degradation, and the impacts of climate change. With a massive infrastructure deficit and improvements needed in private sector dynamics, innovative finance and tailored strategies are crucial. This discourse emphasizes the urgent need for regional integration, governance reform, and enhancing skills and technology, while also leveraging opportunities in the post-Rio+20 agenda to foster sustainable development and shared prosperity across the continent.

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African Energy F utures

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  1. African Energy Futures MafaldaDuarteAfrican Development Bank

  2. Outline • Africa Today • Global and Africa’s Income Inequality • Global and Africa’s Environmental Degradation • Additional Challenges due to Climate Change • How to Support Transformation • What is needed • Innovative finance • Opportunities in the Post-Rio+20 Landscape

  3. Africa Today: Continued and robust growth…but mostly driven by commodity prices

  4. Africa Today: Business climate is improving…but private sector still faces bottlenecks

  5. Africa Today: Poverty is falling but unequally

  6. Substantial But Uneven Progress Global Income Inequality Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators; OECD, DAC Statistics

  7. Africa Today: Massive infrastructure deficit

  8. Africa Today: Regional integration and intra-regional trade needs deepening

  9. Global EnvironmentalDegradation Climate Change Ocean acidification Chemical pollution (not yet quantified) Stratospheric ozone depletion Atmospheric aerosol loading (not yet quantified) ? ? Nitrogen cycle (biogeochemical flow) Biodiversity loss Phosphorus cycle Global freshwater use Change in land use Source: Rockström et al., Nature (2009)

  10. Additional Challenges Due to Climate Change Pictures: AfDB

  11. Impacts on water resources • Warming expected to increase up to 1.4 ° C by 2020; 5.1 ° C by 2080 • Increase in temperature = greater evapostranspiration; e.g. 1° C warming results 10% reduction in surface runoff (Morocco) • Changes in variability - more severe, intense, prolonged droughts and floods • Changes in groundwater recharge • By 2020, up to 250 million people in Africa are projected to be exposed to increased water stress

  12. Impact on Agriculture • Changes in pests, diseases, growing seasons, land-use • Temperature-induced crop yield losses of up to 16% per 1° C • Overall reductions of up to 22% across 5 crops • By 2020, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be 50% less in some countries, affecting food security and exacerbating malnutrition

  13. Impact on Coastal Zone and Marine Resources African Cities at Risk • 19 big cities (1 million +) in LECZ* • Mombasa: 17% city below 0.3m • Banjul:most below 1m • Egypt: 2 million people below 0.5m • Abidjan, Lagos at high risk • Marine Resources at Risk • 22 of 33 coastal countries “highly vulnerable” to CC impacts on fisheries are in Africa

  14. But Opportunities Too

  15. How to SupportTransformation

  16. How to Support Transformation • Infrastructure development $30-50 Billion Annual Gap 2% of Lost Annual GDP Growth • Improve transport & logistics chains • Meet rising demand for energy • Enhance water resources • Expand broadband telecommunications • Integrate urban infrastructure

  17. How to Support Transformation • Regional integration • Only 12% of Africa’s Trade is Intra-Regional • Hard infrastructure • Support soft infrastructure • Trade and Customs procedures • Movement of labor and capital • One stop border posts

  18. How to Support Transformation • Private sector development 50 million MSMEs 22% Access to Finance Low productivity • Improve investment and business climate • Expand access to infrastructure • Promote enterprise development • Improve access to finance • Scale up support to MSMEs

  19. How to Support Transformation • Governance & accountability 20% live in fragile states Weak institutions Poor service delivery • Build accountability: public spending, delivery • Support anti-corruption initiatives • Strengthen debt-management capacity • Promote fiscal decentralization • Bolster property rights, access to justice • Improve natural resource management

  20. How to Support Transformation • Skills & technology 250 million Africans between 15 and 24 15 million new job seekers annually • Build skills: science, technology, engineering • Support women in technical & scientific study • Support innovation & entrepreneurship • Develop networks of excellence and mentoring programs

  21. What is Needed Tailored strategies, Policies that promote smart behavior and tackle upfront capital constraints

  22. Innovative Finance • Focus on upfront financing: • Need for new sources, but also project preparation finance and risk-management schemes • Borrowing constraints • SMEs and local governments • Green finance, but also: • Leverage public and IFI resources: engage private banks; Fund-of-funds; buy down interest rates • Local public finance • Payment for environmental services

  23. Opportunities in the Post-Rio+20 Landscape • SDGs and the post-2015 int’l development agenda • “Shared prosperity” and the challenge and imperative of integrating sustainability into the poverty-centric MDG framework • Natural Capital Accounting (NCA) + WAVES • UN Statistical Commission adopted a System for Environmental-Economic Accounts, and 60+ countries embraced NCA at Rio • Data, tools and knowledge • Clear demand from advanced and developing countries for better information and methods and opportunities to share good (and failed) practices

  24. Targeting and Tailoring

  25. Thank You!! Mafalda Duarte m.duarte@afdb.org

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