ESPON Project 1.1.3 Effects of enlargement of the EU on the spatial tissue

1. ESPON Project 1.1.3Effects of enlargement of the EU on the spatial tissue Spatial trends Regions with specific needs ScenariosPolicy combinations

2. Research questions: · Current polycentric developments in enlargement area? • Diagnosis of the spatial tissue with emphasis on the EU-10? • Areas at risk in the enlargement area? • Special needs of border regions? • Possible futures of the enlarged EU: accessibility and performance of regions? • What policy combinations at all levels could be efficient?

3. CONSEQUENCES Realist/rationalist perspective, interests and preferences taken as given Prevalent in situations where interests are non-negotiable… in zero-sum bargaining Based on epistemic knowledge APPROPRIATENESS Constructivist perspective, interests not fully known and are susceptible to change and evolution through discourse Prevalent in situations where actors are working towards common goals. Win-win situations Based on consensual knowledge Spatial Policy Orientations –Combination of Two Logics

4. Preliminary Findings I: Spatial association • In general: positive surroundings go with higher own economic growth • Spatial clusters more prevalent in EU10 (55 % of NUTS3) than in EU15 (35%) • But large isolated hot spots as well as cold spots imply poor spillover effects and knowledge transfer

5. Spatial association of GDP growth 1995-2000

6. Spatial association of population growth 1995-2000

7. Preliminary findings II: Regional specialisation and concentration during enlargement • Most processes in EU10 replicate transformation in EU15 • But now both service growth and employment decline in other sectors are faster and more manifest in EU10 • Implies needs for more resources and targeting of policy, but not necessarily new orientations • Regional specialisation leads to risk as much as to wealth

8. Typologies based on trends of regional specialisation and GDP per capita growth, 1995 - 2001 (EU average compound GDP/h growth rate)

9. Identifying EU’s ”regions with specific needs” • EU’s Rustic communities • Fringe regions • Rust belt • Shrinking communities

10. EU’s ‘Fringe’ communities EU´s Fringe communities

11. EU’s ‘Rustic’ communities

12. Border regions typologies: Economic disparities vs transnational activities and capacity building

13. Scenario studies • Spatial consequences of macro economic and demographic trend breaks • Transport infrastructure policy for competitiveness, cohesion and conservation in EU10

14. RESSET Model (REgional Scenario Simulations for the European Territory) - a sketch planning model that enables the user to very quickly test a scenario at different levels of detail by specifying different scales of change in population, employment, and accessibility.

15. Examples of ‘What If’ Scenarios • Policies to move jobs from western Europe to the east: injections of employment at levels of 15% in the key eastern countries • Growth of western Europe, particularly the Low Countries, UK, France and Germany from East Asian and North American investment, adding 15% to employment levels. • The growth of the south in terms of migrating population to Greece, Spain, Portugal and the islands, adding 15% to these population levels.

16. If: 15 % more jobs in central Eastern countries – What?

17. Transport infrastructure scenarios – findings (SASI): • Transport infrastructure improvement alone not sufficient • Improve transport corridors between old and new member states more important than within new EU states • Improvements designed to reduce spatial disparities at the European level are likely to increase spatial disparities within the EU-10. • Decline in polycentricity is likely to continue in the future, and faster in EU-10 • All but one transport policy scenarios likely to accelerate the decline in polycentricity in EU-10.

18. Making Policy combinations Principle-based: • Elementary and European-wide typologies of regions at risk. • Based on tested scenario alternatives Capacity-based: • Empowering administrative capacity and competence at all levels. • Based on consenus and partnerhip • Activating Bottom-Up Processes.

19. “Logic of Consequence”-based policy combinations • Transport infrastructure investments particularly between new and old member states • Networking with Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg and Kiev • Promotion of the network of triangle Warsaw - Poznan - Budapest. • Intensified and focused urban policy programmes • Promote the multiplier effects of R&D centers • Programme for functional growth of second tier cities

20. ”Logic of Appropriateness-based policy combinations • Explore multi-level coordination methods • Accelerate administrative reconstruction in New Member States • Capacity building focusing Fringes • Key services in Shrinking regions • RDP focusing EU´s Rustic communities • Cooperation within regions in EU-10 • Local Agenda 21 and Polycentricity at local scale

21. Challenges for Final report • Refine analysis and interpretation of spatial association and specialization in EU10 • Qualify the typologies of regional needs • Develop RESSET model to a handy tool • Scenario Cross-breedings • Develop the 2-sided ”Policy Combination” model

22. Thanks for your attention!

25. Typologies of regional specialisation and GDP per capita - 2001 (EU average)  

26. Spatial association between GDP per capita growth 1995-2000 and GDP per capita 1995