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1. Demographic, Economic, Sociological, and Technological Trends for Independent SchoolsD. Scott LooneyDirector of External AffairsCranbrook SchoolsBloomfield Hills, MI 48304slooney@cranbrook.edu ________

2. Outline • Population Demographics and Opinion • Racial/Ethnic Demographics and Opinion • Economic Demographics and Opinion • Demographic Research Techniques • Research Resources • Societal Landscape • Challenges of the Future • Technology Projections

3. Population

4. Cranbrook Schools Enrollment 1988 - 1998 vs.Gross Domestic Product* in 1992 constant dollars andvs. Population of School Age Children* in the U.S. Recession ? Recession & Low Population *School Age Children Population and GDP indexed to same range as Cranbrook Enrollment

5. Age 27 Age 11 Number of Births (in thousands) in the United States 1909 - 1994 American Demographics, 1997 Age

6. U.S. Population Growth, 1950 to 2000 Source: US Census 2000 Brief: Population Change and Distribution, 1990-2000

7. School age U.S Population (in thousands) to 2050

8. U.S. Teen Population (in millions) ages 12-19 “What number do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?” Two Children More than Two 1976 1986 1996 1976 1986 1996 50% 50% 55% 33% 37% 29% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997 +9% +7% +3%

9. School Age Population • Between 1996 and 2004 the numbers of school age children is projected to increase each year. • Between 2005 and 2010 the numbers of school age children should be stagnant or decreasing slightly each year. • Between 2010 and 2020 there will be dramatically decreasing numbers of school age children, so… • Between 1996 and 2020 the total number of school age children will increase very little. • After 2020 there should be a dramatic increase in the number of school age children.

10. Suburbs Gain(percent of people living in central cities, suburbs and non-metropolitan areas, 1950 and 1998)

11. Children in 2001(Projected percent of population under age 18, 2001) AD, March 97

12. Enrollment Growth N.A.I.S. vs. Public and Parochial NAIS Statistics 1997, Vol.1

13. N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by Region 1988-98

14. The Large get Larger and the Small get Smaller[N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by School Size (1987-1997)] NAIS Statistics 1998, Vol 1.

15. N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by School Type (1989-1999) NAIS Statistics 2000, Vol 1.

16. Race and Ethnicity

17. Changes in the U.S. Population: Traditional markets diminish • The White population of the U.S. is mostly concentrated in the northern half of the nation and is older, wealthier, more well-educated and declining in numbers. • While the number of school age children will increase slightly over the next 25 years, the numbers from affluent families is expected to drop notably. • Immigration to the U.S. has reached record highs. Only 15% of today’s immigrants are from Europe. The remaining 85% are from South and Central America and Asia. • By 2030 most of America’s school age children will be “minority,” as will most Americans by 2050.

18. Challenges of the Future • Urban areas will become more racially diverse at a significantly greater rate than elsewhere and rural areas should experience very slow rates of change. • There will be significantly more Hispanic and Asian people in the country in the future. • Anglo birth will be a minority by about 2040 if trends continue. While the population of children in the U.S. will grow in the next decade, that growth will not occur in the “traditional” private school families…(rich, well educated, and white)…in fact the population of children in this group will decline. • The middle class will continue to shrink, and the wealth will be more concentrated in the hands of a few…but those few will prosper (but not procreate).

19. “Some people say that because of past discrimination, blacks should be given preference in hiring and promotion. Others say that such preference is wrong because it discriminates against whites. Are you for or against preferential hiring and promotion of blacks? For: 15% Against: 77% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997 Percent distribution of births by race 1995 - 2050 “Which law would you vote for? 1) A homeowner can decide for himself whom to sell his house to, even if he prefers not to sell to blacks. 2) A homeowner cannot refuse to sell to someone because of their race or color.” Up to Owner (1)Can’t Refuse (2) 1976 62% 34% 1986 47% 51% 1996 29% 67% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997

20. How important is the issue of race relations to your vote in this year’s (2000) presidential election? Gallup Organization, January 2000

21. Minority Majority in 2001(% Anglo Distribution, 2001), AD Oct. 96

22. Racial Markets of Significance • HISPANICGain 1990-961996 Pop. % Change 1) Los Angeles 1,028,141 5,850,261 21% 2) New York - N.J. 447,867 3,325,071 16% 3) San Francisco 250,747 1,228,470 26% 4) Houston-Galveston, TX 222,144 1,004,935 28% 5) Chicago 221,308 1,124,558 25% • ASIAN 1) Los Angeles 305,860 1,712,608 22% 2) New York - N.J. 294,485 1,222,350 32% 3) San Francisco 240,969 1,197,820 25% 4) Washington - Baltimore 87,208 341,941 34% 5) Chicago 70,966 339,558 26% • BLACK 1) Atlanta 159,830 913,943 21% 2) New York - N. J. 154,446 3,838,950 4% 3) Wash. - Baltimore 129,909 1,839,778 8% 4) Houston - Galveston 97,163 777,628 14% 5) Miami 86,812 688,225 14% • WHITE 1) Atlanta 320,841 2,434,775 15% 2) Phoenix 301,505 2,011,658 18% 3) Dallas-Fort Worth 245,672 3,099,558 14% 4) Las Vegas 202,944 874,308 30% 5) Portland 198,702 1,815,198 12% American Demographics, 1997

23. Diversity increases, diverse communities do not • The “melting pot” is not a reality. Population shifts during the 1990’s show continued graphic concentration of minority groups into specific regions. • Despite to growth of minority populations, the nation still has only a few communities with true racial and ethnic diversity. • The ten metro areas with the largest Hispanic populations were also the ten largest gainers. • L.A., New York and San Francisco accounted for 39 percent of the nation’s Asian population gains, and 43% of all U.S. Asians live in these three metro areas. • America’s Black population is more dispersed, but still concentrated regionally in northern urban centers and the South. • White population growth is mostly in the Southeast, Texas, and the Rocky Mountain States near California. These areas are exceptionally White.

24. Diversity will remain in the City • In 1996, 95% of Asians, 91% of Hispanics and 85% of Blacks resided in metropolitan areas. • The greatest numbers of minorities will probably continue to be in the large metro areas for the foreseeable future. • The “Majority Minority” areas will continue to be few and far between, while suburbs in the South and Mountain West will continue to grow in popularity.

25. NAIS Students of Color as a Percentage of Enrollment, by Ethnicity NAIS Statistics 2000, Vol. 1

26. Students of Color in NAIS Schools as a Percentage of Total Enrollment NAIS Statistics 2000, Vol. 1

27. Minority Patterns(U.S. counties where the percent of the population represented by a minority exceeds that minority’s share of the U.S. population, 1996) ad June 98

28. Minorities Earn Less Than Whites at Every Educational Level “In the past few years, do you think conditions for black people have improved? Improved Stayed the Same Gotten Worse Black 35% 43% 21% White 62% 26% 7% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997 Source: American Demographics

29. Homelands(percent distribution of naturalizing citizens in the U.S. by region of birth) AD, Mar. 97 1961-70 • 56% of Americans think we should decrease immigration, only 8% think we should increase. • 47% of Americans believe that immigrants take jobs away from natives. However, 60% of believe that immigrants make America more open to new ideas and cultures. • General Social Survey • National Opinion Research Center • University of Chicago, 1997 1991-94

30. Society & Education(It’s all about Education….)

31. Education Rates(percent of people aged 25 or older who are high school or college graduates, 1950 and 1998)

32. “Would you say you are very happy, pretty happy or not too happy?” Very HappyPretty HappyNot Too Happy Not a HS Grad 27% 54% 18% HS Graduate 29% 59% 12% Bachelors 35% 55% 9% Graduate Degree 39% 51% 9% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997 Chance for College by Parental Education for Dependent Family Members 18 to 24, 1987 to 1996 Bachelors Degree or More Percent Entering College Some College “In general, do you find life exciting, routine or dull?” ExcitingRoutineDull Not a HS Grad 35% 52% 11% HS Graduate 46% 49% 4% Bachelors 66% 33% 1% Graduate Degree 70% 30% 0% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997 High School Graduate Not High School Graduate

33. Average Family Income by Educational Attainment of the Householder, 1997

34. Median Family Income by Educational Attainment of Householder, 1973 and 1997(in 1997 dollars)

35. Change in Median Family Income by Educational Attainment of Householder between 1973 and 1997(in 1997 dollars)

36. Income Change by Occupation(percent change in median income of men working full-time by selected occupation, 1982 to 1997, in 1997 dollars) Executive Administrative Managerial Professional Specialty Technologists Sales Production Craft Repair Operators Fabricators Laborers

37. Rise in Black Consumer Buying Power 1990-2001 (in Billions) Source: Selig Center for Economic Growth

38. Discretionary Income as a Proportion of Median Family Income by Educational Attainment of the Head of Household

39. “During the last few years, has your financial situation been getting better, worse, or has it stayed the same?” General Social Survey, National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago, 1997

40. Income Demographics

41. Where the Jobs Are(Projected U.S. employment 1998-2010)

42. Wealth and Poverty(High wealth, High poverty and High Equality by US County, 1993)

43. The Gini coefficient • The Gini coefficient indicates the overall distribution of income. • A coefficient of 0 indicates a perfectly equal distribution of income…everyone is middle class. • A coefficient of 1 means one family has all the income and everyone else has none. • So, the higher the coefficient the less equal the income distribution. • The U.S. Gini coefficient rose from .394 in 1970 to .456 in 1994.

44. Middle Income declines, while higher incomes have grown(Number in millions and percent of households by income range) AD, Oct. 96 • In 1996, 64% of Americans felt that the differences in incomes in America were too large. • In 1986, only 55% felt this way. • General Social Survey • National Opinion Research Center • University of Chicago, 1997 Income in 1994 CPI-U-X1 adjusted dollars

45. Percent of Household with Incomes of $100,000 or more, 1980-1997(in 1997 dollars) • In 1996, 67% of Americans agreed with the statement: “Both the husband and the wife should contribute to the household income.” • In 1986, only 48% felt this way. • General Social Survey • National Opinion Research Center • University of Chicago, 1997 American Demographics, Jan. 1999

46. Incomes of Two Earner Household Growing Fastest(Percent Change in median household income by number of earners in household, 1990 to 1997, in 1997 dollars) Census Data, calculations by New Strategist

47. Bigger gains for the child-free(Percent change in median household income by type of household and presence of children under 18 at home, 1974 to 1997, in 1997 dollars) Census Data, calculations by New Strategist

48. Without Kids = More Money(median income of married couples in which both husband and wife work full-time, by presence of children at home, 1997) Census Data, calculations by New Strategist

49. Change in Debt from 1995 to 1998, by Income group

50. Percent change in Median Net Worth from 1989 to 1998, (in 1998 constant dollars) American Demographics, April 2000