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Influences on Net Migration

Influences on Net Migration. Kelly Howard kh1007a@student.american.edu American University School of International Service. Research Question & Research hypothesis. Research Question: What is the relationship between the prosperity and well-being of a country and its net migration rate?

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Influences on Net Migration

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  1. Influences on Net Migration Kelly Howard kh1007a@student.american.edu American University School of International Service

  2. Research Question & Research hypothesis • Research Question: What is the relationship between the prosperity and well-being of a country and its net migration rate? • Research Hypothesis: In general, I expect that the more prosperous the country, the more likely it is that country will have positive net migration. • Ha1: GDP per capita • Ha2: Unemployment rate, total (% of total labor force) • Ha3: Infant mortality rate under 5 (per 1000) • Ha4: Life Expectancy (years) • Ha5: Primary School Completion rate (% of relevant age group)

  3. Literature Review • “The Effect of Development on Migration” • by Michael Vogler and Ralph Rotte • Question: Why, given high differences in income and living conditions, is migration from the Third World to industrialized countries low? • Findings : Costs / benefits of migration; cultural groups are affected by variables differently. • “Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe” • By Eric Neumayer • Question: What factors can explain asylum migration to Western European countries? • Findings : to reduce immigration rates, promote economic growth and human rights in the countries they’re emigrating from.

  4. Data • Country-level cross sectional analysis • World Bank database • Dependent variable : net migration rate (per 1000 population) • Independent variables: : • GDP per capita (gdppc) • Unemployment rate, total (% of total labor force) (ur08) • Infant mortality rate under 5 (per 1000) (mrate5) • Life Expectancy (years) (le09) • Primary Completion rate (% of relevant age group) (primrate)

  5. Dependent Variable: Net Migration Rate (per 1000) Mean: -.307277 Median: -1.86375 Fairly unimodal Range: -92.26 to 103.11 N = 177 Missing = 71/248

  6. Two independent variables: GDP per capita Mean: 13230.9 Median: 4216 Range: 160 to 186175 Normalcy N = 183 Missing = 63/248 Unemployment Rate, total (% of total labor force) Mean: 8.58 Median: 6.65 Range: 1.2 to 47.5 Normalcy N=68 Missing = 150/248

  7. Bivariate Analysis

  8. Bivariate Analysis

  9. Bivariate Analysis Note: figures in bold are significant at the alpha = 0.05 level.

  10. Regression Analysis, Dependent Variable: Net Migration Rate Note: figures in bold are significant at the alpha = 0.05 level

  11. Residuals Plot

  12. Findings & Policy Implications of the research • Findings: Did you accept your research hypothesis? • Yes, GDP per capita has a positive association with net migration rate • But no, the infant mortality rate and the primary completion rate did not have a significant association with the dependent variable • What are the policy implications of your findings? • To increase one’s net migration rate, increase GDP per capita • To reduce one’s net migration rate, increase GDP per capita in the countries you’re receiving immigrants from

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