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IWRSS & Fusion Team Brief Missouri Basin River Forecasters’ Meeting Thursday , February 21, 2013

IWRSS & Fusion Team Brief Missouri Basin River Forecasters’ Meeting Thursday , February 21, 2013 Noreen Schwein Deputy Chief for Hydrologic Services NWS Central Region. Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS).

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IWRSS & Fusion Team Brief Missouri Basin River Forecasters’ Meeting Thursday , February 21, 2013

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  1. IWRSS & Fusion Team Brief Missouri Basin River Forecasters’ Meeting Thursday, February 21, 2013 Noreen Schwein Deputy Chief for Hydrologic Services NWS Central Region

  2. Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) • Goal – Meet the challenge of future water resources through “an innovative partnership of federal agencies with complimentary operational missions in water science, observation, prediction and management.” • USACE-USGS-NWS MOU signed May 2011 • ~ 26 potential federal agencies

  3. IWRSSWorking Together to Address the Nation’s Growing Needs for Water Information

  4. IWRSSWorking Together to Address the Nation’s Growing Needs for Water Information

  5. IWRSS • Consortium led by tri-agency Governance Board • USACE- James Dalton, NOAA/NWS - Don Cline, USGS - JeradBales • Two teams are chartered • Data Interoperability • Flood Inundation Mapping • Two teams are developing • Water Modeling • Geo-Intelligence • Team Membership - 2 members from each agency supported by individual agency advisory teams

  6. IWRSS – National Water Center • The NWC will integrate and combine the capabilities of multiple federal water partners to expand and improve river and flood forecasting, enhance water resource management, accelerate the application of research to real world uses and provide a single portal for water resources information. • The NWC is part of NOAA’s commitment to creating a Weather-Ready Nation

  7. Building a Weather-Ready Nation Where the country is able to prepare for and respond to environmental events that affect safety, health, the environment, economy, and homeland security. Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather.

  8. Building a Weather-Ready Nation • Decision Support Services • Use local relationships with Core Partners to help them to better prepare our communities for extraordinary events • Provide information that is more impact-based • Provide forecasts that quantify confidence • Provide enhanced web displays

  9. Fusion Team Mission: Work collaboratively to “improve the accuracy and utility of river/rainfall observations and river forecasts.” Chairman Chuck Shadie, USACE/MVD Advisory Committee Dave Busse, USACE/MVS Bob Holmes, USGS Nat’l Flood Coordinator Noreen Schwein, NWS/Central Region Technical Members Joan Stemler, USACE/MVS Tracy Clark, NWS/Sourthern Region Jim Stiman, USACE/MVR George McKillop, NWS/Eastern Region Kevin Grode, USACE/NWD Pedro Restrepo, NWS/NCRFC Brian Astifan, USACE/LRD Trent Schade, NWS/OHRFC Jeff Graschel, NWS/LMRFC Kevin Low, NWS/MBRFC Shane Barks, USGS/MO WSC George Arcement, USGS/LA WSC Jerry Butch, USGS/NY WSC

  10. Fusion Team Focus AreasAction Teamsaddress highest priority interagency topics • Communication, Coordination, Collaboration • Data accuracy and accessibility • Technical forecast improvements • Cross-agency training and operations • River forecast verification/performance • Other issues

  11. Communication/Coordination/Collaboration2012 Accomplishments • Continued emphasis on coordination/collaboration • Unified federal message through intricate coordination of NWS inflow forecasts, USACE reservoir outflow projections, and USGS flow measurements • NWS Chat enhancement implemented • “All Chats” chatroom can be used to monitor all rooms at once as well as to send a message to particular chatroom(s) • Develop a one-stop shop for river gage metadata and contact information • Developed 28-day forecast website for mid-lower Mississippi • Implemented extranet site for tri-agency resources

  12. Fusion Team Gage Map http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/nwo/gagemap/gagemap11.html

  13. 28-day Forecast Web Site http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=esp

  14. Enhanced Forecast Coordination • Post 2011 flood • Per MVD request, in July 2012, the NWS RFCs developed a 28-day contingency guidance product that incorporated 16 days of model QPF for the Mississippi and Lower Missouri and Ohio Rivers (kept internal due to low confidence)

  15. Courtesy USACE/MVD

  16. Tri-Agency Extranet (internal web site)https://onecorps.usace.army.mil/sites/CoPs/EC/HHC/Fusion/default.aspx

  17. Data and Forecast Accuracy2012 Accomplishments • Issue – Initializing flow values often differed among the 3 agencies and resulted in less accurate forecasts downstream • Rating Curve Action Team finalized process to coordinate beginning flow used in USACE/NWS forecasts • USACE/NWS goal to be within 2% of each other based on similar range used by USGS in their measurementsnoted as “good” with rating within 2-5% of measurement

  18. Technical Forecast ImprovementsHydraulic Models • Implemented USACE-NWS collaborated hydraulic model(HEC-RAS) for Upper Mississippi & Illinois rivers (NCRFC & USACE/MVR) • Implementation at MVR dependent on implementation of the Corps of Engineers Water Management System (CWMS) • NCRFC working with MVP on Red River of the North Note for interagency but not related to the Fusion Team: • MBRFC collaborated with USACE Kansas City District to develop HEC-RAS for the Missouri

  19. Verification/Performance Metrics • 2009-2010 performance metrics at St. Louis indicated improvement in collaborated forecasts delivered to public • Action team • Developed process to review specific events and annual trends • 2012 will be first annual report • Will also have the following years for trend analysis:

  20. Other Issues • Data • NWS had incorrect FAQ regarding the source of AHPS Real-time Observational Data…was corrected through Fusion Team • USGS quickly implemented policy regarding changes in river gage datums to allow enough time for NWS to effect needed changes • USACE updated source of NWS forecast values to be the more real time, xml data • Outreach • Fusion Team ASCE publication, “Flood Risk Awareness during the 2011 Floods in the Central United States: Showcasing the Importance of Hydrologic Data and Interagency Collaboration”

  21. Fusion Team – Path Forwardhttp://mvs-wc.mvs.usace.army.mil/fusion/fusion.htm • Address interagency flood assessment recommendations • Be resource to IWRSS FIM and Data Interoperability teams • Continue to analyze forecast accuracy through metrics • Expand use of Interagency Extranet site containing information to support interagency operations. • Email Jule Bartels, Jule.D.Bartels@usace.army.mil, for access to extranet • Share Fusion Team Best Practices in other interagency forums across the country (tri-agency, Silver Jackets, etc) • Continue cross-agency training including real time simulation training exercises

  22. Questions?????? Noreen Schwein noreen.schwein@noaa.gov 816-268-3147

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