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The Age Boom is Coming: Implications for Our Aging Society

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  1. The Age Boom is Coming: Implications for Our Aging Society Kate Wilber, PhD Davis School of Gerontology, USC California Association of Area Agencies Board Meeting and Retreat September 24, 2008

  2. Boomer Aging: What is Over the Horizon?

  3. How will the baby boomers age?

  4. How will the Baby Boomers Age?

  5. Topics/Themes Demographics of an aging society will drive change • Longevity • Diversity Characteristics of the Baby Boomers Characteristics of the Environment 2008+ • Health care delivery is costly, ignores chronic care and is a nightmare to navigate • Work, retirement and manpower issues • Threats • Trends and Innovations

  6. Pop Quiz • In the year 2025—Will the age of the US population be older, younger, or basically the same as Sweden in 2000? • What years were the Baby Boomers born? • How many baby boomers are there currently living in the US? • What is the age at which current workers say they plan to retire? • Peter Drucker and David Walker, (Comptroller General of the United States) agree that the most dominant trend we face is?

  7. Peter Drucker’s Insights on Why Aging Matters (Conference Board Review Nov/Dec 2000) • Single dominant factor for all countries will be population changes. • The biggest and fastest growing population group determines the mindset and the mood.

  8. Who are the Baby Boomers? • “Generation” born between 1946 and 1964 • Currently the oldest are 62; the youngest are 44 • About 80 million people

  9. Who are the Baby Boomers?

  10. US 65+ Population is Becoming More Culturally Diverse

  11. Baby Boomer Characteristics:Education

  12. Are Baby Boomers Better Educated than their parents?

  13. Baby Boomer Characteristics • Sociodemographic Indicators • Two-thirds are married • 18% separated or divorced • More likely to be childless (almost 20%) or to have small families (fertility rate= 1.9) • compares to 10%; 3.4 earlier generation) • 12% live alone • 4% are “linguistically isolated” • 75% are employed • Income • 8.5% below poverty • 21% within 200% of poverty

  14. Costs: Comparing “early boomers” with current elders 65+Older American 2008: Key Indicators of Well being. Federal Interagency Forum on Aging Related Statistics

  15. Baby Boomer Facts From AARP: • Boomers are staying in the workforce longer than the previous generation—only 11% want to stop working completely • Only 6% plan to down size to smaller homes in the next 5 years • 82% use the internet for email, instant messaging, downloading music or movies, financial transactions and online gaming • One-quarter are empty nesters, 37% currently live with children in their home • 9% are “wealthy” (have income of $150,000/yr).

  16. Sources of Income: Four Legged Stool

  17. Sensory 2.5% Physical 7% Mental Health 4% Personal care limitations 2% Mobility limitations 7% Disability that affects work 13% More than 1disability 10% 20% of Baby Boomers Live with a Disability

  18. Disability and Placement are not one way streets: Getting worse/getting better

  19. Current Housing • 78% Home owners • 12% own “free and clear” • 2/3rds live in single family homes (67%) • 6% live in Mobile homes • 5% in attached homes • 17% Renters • 5% live in “group quarters”

  20. Housing Problems • Without complete plumbing (.61%) • Income kitchen (.5%) • No phone (2%) • No heating fuel (.7%) • No vehicle (6%) • Homeless • Up to 30% are 50+

  21. Who are California's Baby Boomers? (from US Census) • More than 10 million live in CA • 51% female • 64% married; 14% never married;18% divorced/separated • 12% live alone; half (49%) live with spouse+others • 18% report a disability • 7.5% in poverty and 9.5% near poverty (<200%)

  22. California’s Diversity • Current diversity • CA Latinos=30%; US=13% • CA Asian-American=12%; US=4% • 95% of CA’s 65+ speaks English • Baby-boomers: not the stereotype • 40% African American, Latino, or Asian • 30% foreign born • Future diversity (2020) • Latinos 65+ will increase 3Xs • Non-Hispanic Caucasian will increase 50% • Diversity among California Communities

  23. Demographics of an Aging Society • Population aging is driven by: • Reduced Mortality/Increase longevity • Decreased fertility • Changing fundamental age distribution in the US • 65+ population will double the first 25 years of this century (35 million to 70 million)

  24. Trend in % of 65+ Individuals in US from 1900 to 2030

  25. Population of Sweden 2006

  26. Los Angeles County- 1990East Los Angeles Beverly Hills

  27. Dependency Ratio (# people under age 18) + (# people over 65) # people ages 18-65 Calculates # of people depending on money, goods, & services provided by workforce divided by # of workers

  28. Trend in Dependency Ratio in US from 1900 to 2030

  29. Trend in % of Distribution for Dependents and Non-Dependents in US from 1900 to 2050

  30. “Baby Bloomers” now in their prime are:(US Census Bureau News, 3/9/06) • Healthier ~ disability rates declining • Better educated • Higher income • More diverse • Living Longer

  31. Longevity/Life Expectancy • Competing models • 2% reduction in mortality/year (Japan) • Rates similar to past (.6% annually) • Implications • Social Security Administration projects someone born in 2030 life expectancy=84 • Given the 2% assumption life expectancy for someone born in 2030=104

  32. Diversity (US Census Projections)http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/012496.html • 2030—All baby boomers will be 65+ • 20% of the population will be 65+ • 2039—The working population will be more than 50% minority • 2042—Minorities=The Majority • 2050—The 85+ will triple to 19 million • 2050—The working population will be more than 30% Latino

  33. Diversity with the cohorts:What has shaped your life? • Identify 2-3 world events that defined your life? • What music do you associate with your childhood and adolescence? • What television shaped you as a child?

  34. Different Experiences of different Cohorts in the Baby Boom Generation

  35. Variation Among Boomers • Early Boomers (1948-1955) • Civil Rights • Vietnam War • Assignations (JFK, RFK, MLK) • Late Boomers (1956-1964) • Watergate • Stagflation • Shared • Cold War

  36. Problems on the Horizon • Changing health and wellness • Obesity • Toxins • Pandemic • Dementing Illnesses • Crises in Entitlements • Problems that go unaddressed in Medicare and Social Security • Generational Equity Issues • Lack of investment in younger generations that will economically support Baby Boomers (education, health care, opportunities)

  37. Obesity • One-third of the US population and one-third of baby boomers • Causes 300,000 deaths annually • Rivals cancer and heart disease as leading causes of death • 13.2 million older Americans will have Alzheimer's disease (AD) by 2050 (Evans 2003, Archives of Neurology) • Currently 4.5 million

  38. Projected Rates of AD Year Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+ Total 2000 0.3 2.3 1.8 4.5 2010 0.3 2.4 2.4 5.1 2020 0.3 2.6 2.8 5.7 2030 0.5 3.8 3.5 7.7 2040 0.4 5.0 5.6 11.0 2050 0.4 4.8 8.0 13.2

  39. Impact of Changing Demographics • Those at Highest Risk (Low income/Less education): More chronic care services • Increases in LTC need based on age-related chronic illness & disability • High health care inflation • Need for more manpower resources: Families and informal caregivers provide most of the care ~ over $250 billion in 2000

  40. The Retirement Landscape2007 Federal Budget (Concord Coalition) • Entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) comprise 42% of the Fed Budget

  41. Addressing Ageism and Age Anxiety Young @ Heart • Less anxiety • Older age • Good health • Not poor • Knowledge about aging • Regular (at least weekly) contact with older people

  42. Change Our Thinking: Bill Thomas “By lionizing youth and using the benchmarks of a healthy adulthood as the gold standard of well-being, contemporary society has created a simple but radical reinterpretation of age and aging. Old age has been recast as a merciless descent from the apex of youth — a hurling fall and a peculiar form of brokenness that must be resisted with every available means” (What are old people for? VanderWick & Burnham, 2004; p. 84)

  43. The Current Context: Threats and Our Aging Society • Debt & Deficit (more in a minute) • Money spent servicing debt • Current Bailouts: $ Financial crisis • Mortgage crisis • Globalization • Loss of manufacturing jobs (US produces half of what we consume) • Foreign creditors • Commodity inflation • Energy/oil shortage • Climate change

  44. The Current Context for Elders • Reduced pensions • More defined contributions/fewer defined benefits • Health care costs/inefficiencies/poor outcomes • Increasing personal dept • Largest increase in bankruptcy aged 55+ • 1/4 of Boomers have no savings or investments • Low level of savings • Increasing unemployment • Increasing health and wealth disparities

  45. Debt http://www.concordcoalition.org/learn/debt/national-debt • Current Federal Debt is over $9.5 trillion • $9,652,942,800,000 (9-20-08) • http://www.concordcoalition.org/learn/debt/national-debt • $31,000/person in US • Consumer dept (excluding mortgages) • $ 2.5 Trillion ($8,333/person and $18,600/taxpayer) • Bailouts for the financial and mortgage crises—$1 trillion+ secured by assets • Lack of savings, earning options, and safety net to fall back on

  46. Income: Social Security • Replaces about 42% of the final wage earned for a “typical” worker” (full career, average wage) • Social Security provides 3/4ths of income for the bottom 60% of earners at retirement • The US has one of the highest average retirement ages (63) among developed countries • College educated remain in the labor force longer • We can expect to see Baby Boomers stay in the workforce longer

  47. Chronic Care Consumers • In 2001, 12 million people in the U.S. used long-term care • 57% were 65+ • 40% were adults under the age of 65 • 3% were children

  48. Health Care Costs • $1.9 trillion+ in 2004 (16% of GDP) • $6,423 per person • More than 2.5 times the $717 billion in 1990 (13% of GDP) • More than 7 times the $255 billion in 1980 (9.1% of GDP). • Estimated $3.6 trillion by 2014 – 19% of GDP or about $11,045 per person