Paul Samuelson, 1915 -

1. Let those who will write the nation’s laws – if I can write the its textbooks. Economists have correctly predicted nine of the last five recessions. Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas. In this age of specialization, I sometimes think of myself as the last generalist in economics Funeral by funeral, theory advances. BA, Chicago, 1935 PhD, Harvard, 1941 Foundations of Economic Analysis, published 1947 M.I.T. 1940 – Radiation Lab Economics text 1st edition, 1948 17th edition, 2007 Clark Medal 1947 Nobel Award 1970 Paul Samuelson, 1915 -

2. Paul Samuelson, Notable Concepts Mathematical economics: constrained optimization • Revealed preference • Factor price equalization • The transfer problem: improved on Hume • Economics of public goods • Turnpike theorem for growth • Overlapping generations framework • Randomness of speculative prices  efficient market hypothesis • The U.S. Phillips Curve (with Solow)  a policy menu? • 1964 Kennedy – Johnson Tax Cut • 1968 Vietnam War Surtax • “…Adam Smith gave two resounding cheers for individualism; but for state interference of the pre-19th century type he could muster only a bronx cheer. Make no mistake about it, Smith was right. Most inter-ventions into economic life by the State were then harmful both to prosperity and freedom…Good inten-tions by government are not enough; acts do have consequences that had better be taken into account…”

3. Keynesian Pantheon Alvin Hansen 1887 - 1975 • “The American Keynes” • Economic Policy and Full Employment, 1946 • A Guide to Keynes, 1953 Simon Kuznets 1901 – 1985 Nobel Memorial Prize, 1971 • National Income and Its Composition: 1919-1938, • 1941. • Ragnar Frisch, 1895 – 1973 • Econometrics, “Macroeconomics” • Nobel Memorial Prize, 1969 • Jan Tinbergen, 1903 – 1994 • First econometric model • Nobel Memorial Prize, 1969 John Hicks 1904 – 1989 Nobel Memorial Prize, 1972 Mr. Keynes and the Classics, A Suggested Simplification, Econometrica, 1937.

4. Keynesian Pantheon • A Textbook of Econometrics, 1953 • The Empirical Foundations of Keynesian • Economics, 1954 • An Econometric Model of the United States: • 1929 – 1952, 1955 • An Introduction to Econometrics, 1962 Lawrence Klein 1920 – Clark Medal, 1959 Nobel Memorial Prize, 1980 James Tobin 1918 – 2002 Clark Medal, 1955 Council of Economic Advisors, 1961-2 Nobel Memorial Prize, 1981 • Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards • Risk, Review of Economic Studies, 1958 • Tobin q / Tobin tax • Walter Heller, 1915 – 1987 • Chair, Council of Economic Advisors, 1961 - 1964 Franco Modigliani 1918 – 2003 Nobel Memorial Prize, 1985 • Liquidity Preference in the Theory of Interest • and Money, Econometrica, 1944 • The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving, AER,1963 • MPS: MIT-Penn-System Model

5. Keynesian Pantheon Robert Solow, 1924 – Clark Medal, 1961 Council of Economic Advisors, 1961-2 Nobel Memorial Prize, 1987 • A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, • QJE, 1956 • Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy (with • Samuelson), 1960 A.W. Phillips, 1914 – 1975 Paul H. Douglas, 1892 – 1976 “…the greatest of all Senators” Martin Luther King U.S. Senator (Illinois), 1949 - 1967 Chair, Joint Economic Committee • A Theory of Production (with Cobb), AER, 1928 • Real Wages in the United States, 1930 • The Theory of Wages, 1934