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MAP D-PHASE Project Overview: Enhancing High-Resolution Forecasting for Olympics

The MAP D-PHASE project focuses on leveraging high-resolution NWP tools, emphasizing QPF and flood forecasting for the Swiss/German Alps region. It involves a collaboration of various international centers, running ensembles and hydrological models. The project aims to generate experimental products and enhance verification through model intercomparison. With an emphasis on new verification techniques and product prototypes, MAP D-PHASE serves as a testbed for Olympics forecasting.

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MAP D-PHASE Project Overview: Enhancing High-Resolution Forecasting for Olympics

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  1. Participation in MAP D-PHASE / COPS • Description of MAP D-PHASE project • Implementation strategy • Key relevant features of GEM v3.3.0 • Overview of verification opportunities • Generation of experimental products • Prototyping / proof-of-concept for Vancouver 2010 Olympics project

  2. MAP D-PHASE Project • WMO-designated forecast demonstration project for the Swiss/German Alps region • Main emphasis is on QPF and flood forecasting • DOP: 1 June – 30 November Canadian contribution: 1x daily high resolution (2.5km) 24h forecasts for the D-PHASE region

  3. MAP D-PHASE Project • Both deterministic and low/high resolution ensembles will be run by various centers: • Ensembles: MOGREPS (UKMet), INM Multi-model (Spain), COSMO-LEPS (ECMWF), MICRO-PEPS (DWD) • Deteministic: GEM (Canada), MOLOCH (Italy), AROME (France), MM5 (Universities) • Numerous hydrological models will be run either coupled or in offline mode

  4. MAP D-PHASE Project • The MAP D-PHASE integrations will also be used by other related projects: • MICRO-PEPS: A German proposal to combine high resolution (> 3km) results into an ensemble for the DOP • COPS: GEM will be one of the 5 high resolution models used for COPS mission planning – plots are delivered daily to the COPS operations centre • These collaborations will enhance verification efforts

  5. MAP D-PHASE Project Verification (COPS data and model intercomparison) Prototype / Proof-of-Concept (Preparation for Vancouver 2010 Olympics) Experimental Products (New strategies for high resolution NWP)

  6. Implementation Plan

  7. Key Features of GEM 3.3.0 • “Hollow cube” initialization parallelizes nesting and improves delivery time by >1h for GEM-LAM2.5 grids – this feature is mandatory for timely delivery during MAP D-PHASE • Nested M-Y microphysics implements a state-of-the-art multicategory bulk parameterization • “Growing orography” reduces gravity wave generation during the initialization shock

  8. M-Y Microphysics K-Y overpredicts in the lee of the Cascade Mts. M-Y produces improved precip distribution

  9. Growing Orography • Reduced shock during high resolution mountain runs eliminates much vertical motion noise Standard Nesting Growing Orography cross-section along idealized ridge line

  10. D-PHASE Test Period L GFS analysis (18 h before initialization) SLP (magenta), 1000-500 thickness (orange) and 250 hPa wind speed (colour bar)

  11. D-PHASE Test Period L GFS analysis (initialization time) SLP (magenta), 1000-500 thickness (orange) and 250 hPa wind speed (colour bar)

  12. D-PHASE Test Period GFS analysis (18h before initialization) 700 hPa Nondivergent wind (yellow) and streamfunction (orange)

  13. D-PHASE Test Period GFS analysis (initialization time) 700 hPa Nondivergent wind (yellow) and streamfunction (orange)

  14. D-PHASE Test Period GFS analysis (initialization time) 700 hPa potential temperature (coloured lines) and winds, and coupling index

  15. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  16. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  17. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  18. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  19. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  20. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  21. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  22. D-PHASE Test Period Radar Reflectivity – 15 May

  23. D-PHASE Test Period Eumetsat IR image for 1100 UTC 15 May

  24. D-PHASE Test Period 6h precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  25. D-PHASE Verification • Common critisism of GEM-LAM2.5 products is a lack of objective verification measures • D-PHASE / COPS provide a unique set of verification opportunities: • COPS observations (10 aircraft, microphysical instrumentation) • European / German / Swiss observing network (over 800 evenly-distributed gauges) • Model intercomparison (12 high resolution models are being run at least once daily) • WG-VER is designing a subjective forecaster verification toolkit for use during D-PHASE

  26. D-PHASE Verification • Fuzzy high resolution QPF verification: • QPF Feature identification and displacement calculation • Threshold-based structure / amplitude /location (SAL) score • Objective comparison with enhanced resolution (4 km) surface analyses • traditional scores are compared in a neighbour-hood instead of at a point Sample Fuzzy-verified ETS from the Swiss Alpine Model (aLMo)

  27. D-PHASE Summary The MAP D-PHASE project will serve as an Olympics testbed for high resolution NWP: • Leverages recent developments designed to improve performance in mountains • Investigates the utility of new guidance products (e.g. high resolution ensemble) • Provides a unique verification opportunity: • enhanced observations during DOP • intercomparison / new verification techniques

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