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Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska

National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251. Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska. Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007. Why Focus on Higher Education?. $50,000.

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Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska

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  1. National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251 Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007

  2. Why Focus on Higher Education?

  3. $50,000 State New Economy Index (2002) Top Tier CT Middle Tier Low Tier NJ MA $43,000 MD NY CO NH MN VA WY DE CA IL $36,000 NV WA AK RI PA US HI Personal IncomePer Capita FL WI NE KS VT SD OR MI TX OH IA ND MO NC IN GA TN ME AZ OK AL $29,000 MT SC KY ID NM UT AR WV MS LA $22,000 Correlation = 0.83 $15,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength, 2005

  4. Per Capita Personal Income, 2005 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  5. U.S. Average Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average—Nebraska, 1960-2005 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce

  6. Boyd Keya Paha Dawes Knox Cedar Dixon Cherry Sioux Sheridan Holt Brown Rock Dakota Pierce Box Butte Wayne Antelope Thurston Madison Wheeler Cuming Grant Hooker Thomas Loup Blaine Garfield Burt Scotts Bluff Stanton Morrill Boone Garden Dodge Arthur McPherson Logan Valley Greeley Colfax Banner Platte Washington Custer Nance Sherman Douglas Butler Cheyenne Kimball Keith Howard Saunders Merrick Polk Sarpy Deuel Lincoln Seward Cass Hall York Dawson Perkins Buffalo Lancaster Hamilton Otoe Fillmore Chase Hayes Frontier Phelps Adams Clay Saline Kearney Johnson Gosper Nemaha 30,253 to 41,219 28,068 to 30,253 26,799 to 28,068 24,303 to 26,799 10,628 to 24,303 Gage Red Willow Franklin Nuckolls Jefferson Pawnee Dundy Furnas Harlan Hitchcock Webster Thayer Richardson Nebraska Per Capita Personal Income, 2004 Nebraska = $32,923 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  7. 30 30 MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN NH NH NH NH NH NH NH NH NH VT VT VT VT VT VT VT VT VT UT UT UT UT UT UT UT UT UT HI HI HI HI HI HI HI HI HI MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA ND CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT 15 15 WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI IA IA IA IA IA IA IA IA IA ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME NE CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO RI RI RI RI RI RI RI RI RI WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA ID ID ID ID ID ID ID ID ID OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR PA PA PA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AK AK AK OH MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT WY WY WY WY WY WY WY WY WY State Health Index—United Health Foundation IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN US DE DE DE 0 0 MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO NV NV NV NV NV NV NV NV NV NM NM NM KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY OK OK OK NC NC NC FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL WV WV WV WV WV WV WV WV WV AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL GA GA GA AR SC SC SC TN TN TN - - - - - - - - 15 15 MS MS MS MS MS MS MS MS MS LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA - - - - - - - - 30 30 10% 10% 20% 20% 30% 30% 40% 40% Percent of Adults 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Health, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; United Health Foundation

  8. 20 NY CA 16 CT OR NV UT VT CO RI MA FL WA NM Employment in Arts and Entertainment per 1,000 Employees 12 NJ HI GA US MN NH ME MT MI MD WI IL VA AK MO PA TN TX AZ IN SC OH NC KS OK ID NE 8 LA WV MS DE WY KY AR AL IA ND SD 4 15 20 25 30 35 40 Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees, 2005 The Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Employment in the Arts, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey (ACS)

  9. Population and Workforce

  10. Boyd Keya Paha Dawes Knox Cedar Dixon Cherry Sioux Sheridan Holt Brown Rock Dakota Pierce Box Butte Wayne Antelope Thurston Madison Wheeler Cuming Grant Hooker Thomas Loup Blaine Garfield Burt Scotts Bluff Stanton Morrill Boone Garden Dodge Arthur McPherson Logan Valley Greeley Colfax Banner Platte Washington Custer Nance Sherman Douglas Butler Cheyenne Kimball Keith Howard Saunders Merrick Polk Sarpy Deuel Lincoln Seward Cass Hall York Dawson Perkins Buffalo Lancaster Hamilton Otoe Fillmore Chase Hayes Frontier Phelps Adams Clay Saline Kearney Johnson Gosper Nemaha Gage Red Willow Franklin Nuckolls Jefferson Pawnee Dundy Furnas Harlan Hitchcock Webster Thayer Richardson 16,736 to 486,854 8,592 to 16,736 5,394 to 8,592 2,252 to 5,394 374 to 2,252 Nebraska Total Population Estimates By County, 2005 Nebraska = 1,758,163 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

  11. 93.3 85.8 Population Projections—Percent Change, 2000-25 -3.3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  12. Boyd Keya Paha Dawes Knox Cedar Dixon Cherry Sioux Sheridan Holt Brown Rock Dakota Pierce Box Butte Wayne Antelope Thurston Madison Wheeler Cuming Grant Hooker Thomas Loup Blaine Garfield Burt Scotts Bluff Stanton Morrill Boone Garden Dodge Arthur McPherson Logan Valley Greeley Colfax Banner Platte Washington Custer Nance Sherman Douglas Butler Cheyenne Kimball Keith Howard Saunders Merrick Polk Sarpy Deuel Lincoln Seward Cass Hall York Dawson Perkins Buffalo Lancaster Hamilton Otoe Fillmore Chase Hayes Frontier Phelps Adams Clay Saline Kearney Johnson Gosper Nemaha Gage Red Willow Franklin Nuckolls Jefferson Pawnee Dundy Furnas Harlan Hitchcock Webster Thayer Richardson 2,618 to 97,404 200 to 2,618 -135 to 200 -446 to -135 -1,625 to -446 Nebraska Change in Total Population By County, 2005-2020 Nebraska = 295,274 Source: Nebraska Department of Economic Development; University of Nebraska, Bureau of Business Research

  13. 100,429 Projected Change in Nebraska Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2000-20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  14. Percent of Civilian Population Age 25-64 Participating in the Workforce, 2005 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  15. Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Not Participating in the Workforce—By Education Attainment, 2005 U.S.Nebraska Less than High School 37.0 29.8 High School 24.7 19.1 Some College 21.0 18.7 Associate Degree 17.4 11.2 Bachelor’s Degree 16.5 14.2 Graduate/Prof. Degree 13.9 11.9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File

  16. 84.0% 91.8% 10.4% 30.0% 8.9% Educational Attainment and Rank Among States—Nebraska, 2005 (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

  17. Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

  18. Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

  19. Boyd Keya Paha Dawes Knox Cedar Dixon Cherry Sioux Sheridan Holt Brown Rock Dakota Pierce Box Butte Wayne Antelope Thurston Madison Wheeler Cuming Grant Hooker Thomas Loup Blaine Garfield Burt Scotts Bluff Stanton Morrill Boone Garden Dodge Arthur McPherson Logan Valley Greeley Colfax Banner Platte Washington Custer Nance Sherman Douglas Butler Cheyenne Kimball Keith Howard Saunders Merrick Polk Sarpy Deuel Lincoln Seward Cass Hall York Dawson Perkins Buffalo Lancaster Hamilton Otoe Fillmore Chase Hayes Frontier Phelps Adams Clay Saline Kearney Johnson Gosper Nemaha Gage Red Willow Franklin Nuckolls Jefferson Pawnee Dundy Furnas 21.8 to 35.3 19.9 to 21.8 17.9 to 19.9 16.2 to 17.9 12.7 to 16.2 Harlan Hitchcock Webster Thayer Richardson Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2000 Nebraska = 27.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  20. Gaps in Percentage of Residents Age 25-64 with a College Degree Between the Most and Least Educated Counties, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  21. Percent of Residents Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree Born In-State, 2005 Source: 2005 ACS

  22. Percent of Residents Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Born In-State, 2005 Source: 2005 ACS

  23. Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults—U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007

  24. Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults—U.S., 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

  25. South Carolina New Mexico Connecticut Washington Oklahoma California Colorado Vermont Nevada Arizona Oregon Alaska Florida Hawaii Maine Texas Idaho Percentage Differences Between Younger Adults (Age 25-34) and Older Adults (Age 45-54) with College Degrees—Associate and Higher, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

  26. Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group—Nebraska, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2007

  27. 1,318,974 1,175,054 Additional Degrees (Associate and Higher) Needed to Meet Performance of Top Country*—Population Age 25-44 -7,798 * In Canada, 50.13% of adults age 25-44 have college degrees (Associate and above). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD

  28. Native American/ Asian/ WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/Latino Alaska Native Pacific Islander Males Males Males Males Males Females Females Females Females Females Top Country (Norway) Top Country (Canada) U.S. Index = 81% U.S. Index = 72% Percent Educational Attainment of Nebraska’s Young Workforce (Age 25-34)—Indexed to Most Educated Country, 2005 All College Degrees (Associate or Higher) Bachelor's Degree or Higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD

  29. Percent Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64 By Race/Ethnicity—Nebraska, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

  30. Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)

  31. The Student Pipeline

  32. Of 100 9th Graders, How Many… Student Pipeline, 2004 Source: NCES Common Core Data 2004; Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Education Opportunity; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Retention Rate File and Fall 2003 Enrollments, 2004 Graduation Rates; U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

  33. High School Graduation Rates—Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2004 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (rev. 071106)

  34. Nebraska Projected High School Graduates By Race/Ethnicity from 2000-01 to 2017-18 Source: Western Interstate Higher Education Commission (WICHE)

  35. College-Going Rates—First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2004 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (2004 data update 02-06-07)

  36. Associate Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2004 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE

  37. Three-Year Graduation Rates at Two­Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent) Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

  38. Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2004 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE

  39. Six-Year Graduation Rates at Four­Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent) Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

  40. Race/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of the Education Pipeline—Nebraska, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; NCES Common Core of Data; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2005 Enrollments File, 2004-05 Completions File

  41. Part-Time Undergraduates as a Percent of Population Age 25-44, 2004 Source: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Enrollments; U.S. Census Bureau 2004 Population Estimates

  42. Less than High School High School Some College Associate Bachelor’s Graduate/Professional Total Net Migration by Degree Level and Age Group—Nebraska 22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files

  43. South Dakota Pennsylvania West Virginia North Dakota Rhode Island Mississippi Wisconsin Oklahoma New York Nebraska Louisiana Wyoming Alabama Montana Vermont Kansas Indiana Hawaii Alaska Ohio Utah Iowa Migration Rate* of College-Educated Residents Age 22-64—Associate and Higher, 1995-2000 * Per 1,000 residents age 22-64 with college degrees. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)

  44. Postsecondary Teachers Secretaries & Administrative Assistants Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatching, & Distributing Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides Cooks & Food Preparation Workers Engineers Mathematical Science Occupations Counselors, Social Workers, Other Community/Social Service Other Production Occupations Information & Record Clerks Top Executives Legal Support Other Sales & Related Workers Sales Representatives, Services Lawyers, Judges, & Related Workers Financial Specialists Advertising, Mktg., Promotions, Public Rel., Sales Managers Other Management Occupations Health Diagnosing & Treating Practitioners Primary, Secondary, & Special Education Teachers Nebraska Net Migration of College Degree Holders Age 22-29 by Occupation, 1995 to 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 5% PUMS File

  45. Other Sales & Related Workers First-Line Enlisted Military Supervisor/Managers Other Production Occupations Business Operations Specialists Supervisors, Production Workers Building Cleaning & Pest Control Workers Health Technologists & Technicians Other Military Occupations Air Transportation Workers Engineers Law Enforcement Workers Operations Specialties Managers Supervisors, Office & Administrative Support Workers Social Scientists & Related Workers Supervisors, Sales Workers Lawyers, Judges, & Related Workers Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing Advertising, Mktg., Promotions, Public Rel., Sales Mgrs. Other Management Occupations Primary, Secondary, & Special Education Teachers Health Diagnosing & Treating Practitioners Nebraska Net Migration of College Degree Holders Age 30-64 by Occupation, 1995 to 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 5% PUMS File

  46. 240 North Dakota Wyoming Vermont Migration Rate* of Residents Age 22-64 with Less than a High School Diploma, 1995-2000 * Per 1,000 residents age 22-64 with less than a high school diploma. Source: State Higher Education Officers (SHEEO)

  47. Low Production, Importer of Capital High Production, Importer of Capital 350 NV 280 CO 210 GA AZ CA OR WA AK MD 140 VA TX NC FL MA NJ IL MN TN 70 HI DE NY SC CT MO 0 KY OH KS NM MI AR NH UT -70 ID OK WI RI NE AL IN PA MS LA WY -140 ME New Economy Index (2002) VT IA Top Tier WV SD -210 Middle Tier MT Low Tier -280 ND Low Production, Exporter of Capital High Production, Exporter of Capital -350 10 20 30 40 50 60 States’ Ability to Produce Graduates vs. Ability to Keep and Attract Graduates Migration Rate of Residents Age 22-29 with a College Degree Production of College Graduates (Undergraduate Credentials and Degrees Awarded Per 1,000 Residents Age 18-44 with High School Diploma or Some College but No College Degree) 47 47

  48. Median Earnings by Degree Level, 2005 Note: Data represent persons age 18-64 with positive earnings working 35+ hours per week. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

  49. Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and an Associate Degree, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

  50. Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and a Bachelor’s Degree, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

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