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1. honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion

2. HOT BRTBus/Rapid Transit (BRT) running in High-Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes or RAIL TRANSIT

3. Benefits & Costs of the alternatives • Will they reduce congestion? • Are the costs reasonable? The normal way that business people approach planning on a large project is to first roughly estimate the costs, then estimate the benefits and then ask, “Are we in the ballpark?” If yes, then the planning proceeds, with constant refinement of costs and benefits. The city is not doing that. We know which stations will have escalators but not whether rail will reduce traffic congestion, the most important benefit, or at what cost. So let’s look at the chances of rail giving us a reduction in traffic congestion and what rail will cost. And then look at HOT lanes and what they could do for us. www.honolulutraffic.com

4. Commuting on Oahu, 1980-2000 First, a little history. This is the Census data for Honolulu. Notice that drivers have been increasing and transit is in decline both in percentages and in absolute numbers. The trend continues. www.honolulutraffic.com

5. It is the same nationally. A continual decline in the use of public transportation and increases in drivers — decade after decade. www.honolulutraffic.com

6. 8/80 principle The 8/80 principlesays public transportation is so small a percentage of commuting, that unless we triple or quadruple the percentage it have little impact on the huge percentage of drivers. That has not happened anywhere; it has declined. We are coining the idea of the “8/80 principle” to focus people on the importance of the percentage of commuters using public transportation — of any kind www.honolulutraffic.com

7. The 8/80 principle: Oahu commuters: • 8% use TheBus. • 80% drive • The city forecasts 130,000 new commuters by 2030. • If we maintain these percentages: • 10,000 of these new commuters will use bus and/or rail • 100,000 will drive. • But no metro area has ever increased the percentage of transit commuters over any 20 year period. This is where the 8/80 principle comes from: How Oahu commuters get to work. As of 2000, 34,000 Oahu commuters used transit. To keep the same level of traffic congestion as 2000, about 110,000 commuters would have to use transit, or about 3.5 times the number currently, or 20 percent of all commuters and that would be greater than any place other than New York.

8. 8/80principle for Vancouver, 1993-2003: Source: www.translink.bc.ca/files/pdf/plan_proj/10year_project.pdf page 10. Here’s the 8/80 principle as work in the poster child city of Vancouver. They maintained the same percentages of commuters using transit and autos. Consequently their 295,000 new commuters split 74:11 resulting in a 32 thousand increase in transit commuters, which people rave about BUT two hundred thousand increase in drivers. www.honolulutraffic.com

9. 8/80principle for Portland 1990-2000 Here’s the 8/80 principle at work in Portland. Net result: 21 thousand new transit commuters BUT one hundred and seventy new drivers. www.honolulutraffic.com U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highways Administration file:msacomparison. xls

10. U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highways Administration file:msacomparison. xls Most of the other cities performed worse than Vancouver and Portland that is why on average in the nation, commuter usage of transit slid from 5.3 to 4.7 percent and drivers increased from 73.2 to 75.7 percent. With 13 million new commuters it meant that we had 13 million more drivers and no new transit users. www.honolulutraffic.com

11. Atlanta Washington, DC Dallas Los Angeles San Diego San Francisco Chicago Miami Boston Denver Seattle Portland New York Sacramento Salt Lake City Philadelphia St. Louis Cleveland Buffalo Pittsburgh All 20 Metro Areas with rail in 2000 These are the 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s) that have rail lines. The U.S. Dept. of Transportation uses MSA’s, or metro areas, in discussing urban transportation because it only makes sense to group contiguous urban areas together. www.honolulutraffic.com

12. Atlanta Washington, DC Dallas Los Angeles San Diego San Francisco Chicago Miami Boston Denver Seattle Portland New York Sacramento Salt Lake City Philadelphia St. Louis Cleveland Buffalo Pittsburgh All declined in percentage of commuter use 1980-2000 These metro areas with rail all saw percentage declines in the commuter use of public transportation in 1980-2000. The only exception was that San Diego increased from 3.3 to 3.4 percent — essentially nothing to nothing. www.honolulutraffic.com

13. The worst traffic congestion increases in the nation, 1982-2003 1 Atlanta 2 Washington, DC 3 Dallas 4 Los Angeles 6 San Diego 8 San Francisco 8 Chicago 11 Miami 15 Boston 16 Denver 17 Seattle 20 Portland 22 New York 26 Sacramento 26 Salt Lake City 38 Philadelphia 43 St. Louis 65 Cleveland 65 Buffalo 81 Pittsburgh The Texas Transportation Institute, the nation’s guardians of traffic congestion data, list in the latest Urban Mobility Report, 85 urban areas listed in order of the worst increase in traffic congestion in the period 1982-2003. Note that 7 of the 10 worst have rail transit; 16 of the 20 rail areas are in the top half of the worst increases and the other four had little population growth. Congestion data from Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Study, Table 4. www.honolulutraffic.com

14. Urban Area Traffic Congestion • 11 Very Large: over 3 million population. All with rail lines, except Houston — it had the least increase in traffic congestion. • 27 Large: 1 to 3 million population — half with rail lines. The 4 best had no rail lines. • 30 Medium: ½ to 1 million population, includes Honolulu. Only Salt Lake City had rail — they had the third worst increase. Congestion data from Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Study, Table 4. This is another way the Texas Transportation Institute looks at it; by dividing the cities by population size. www.honolulutraffic.com

15. Investing in public transportation of any kind will not reduce traffic congestion. • It may produce other beneficial outcomes but not congestion reduction This may seem like an extraordinary statement but the evidence is quite clear and reviewing the data in greater detail than is done here only confirms the statement. There may be other benefits to public transportation such as social justice benefits, or equity reasons, but not the reduction of traffic congestion. www.honolulutraffic.com

16. Leeward Corridor Problem: • Highway traffic congestion • Not insufficient transit. You can only relieve traffic congestion by expanding highway capacity: • Construct new highways • Make them more efficient We can all agree we need new capacity in the Leeward Corridor. But we must first be honest with the public because it is their view that our problem is traffic congestion; we do not have a public transportation problem. In addition, we have to recognize that, short of using politically unacceptable congestion pricing on all freeways, we can only relieve traffic congestion by building new highways and making them more efficient. www.honolulutraffic.com

17. Leeward Corridor capacity increase needed Bus/Rapid Transit & autos on HOT lanes @ $900 million? OR Rail transit @ $4.1 billion? Flexible: Buses, van pools, HandiVans, autos, trucks, ambulances, civil defense, police, tow trucks, and other emergency vehicles Inflexible: Train riders only — when not on strike. This is why we suggested the HOT lanes approach. www.honolulutraffic.com

18. HOV lanes carry more than most rail lines Voters have been abused for a long time by rail proponents making statements such as it takes 12 freeway lanes to equal one light rail line. What nonsense. As we can see here only NYC’s subways move more people than the three largest HOV facilities. www.honolulutraffic.com

19. HOV carries more per hour than rail Portland Eastside MAX light rail line 1,980 people per hour Portland’s 6th Avenue HOV lane 8,500 people per hour Quote: “Both rail and HOV can serve the person carrying capacity needs of about any corridor in North America” Parsons, Brinckerhoff HOV Manual Portland, the light rail poster city makes the case for us. Their light rail carries much less than the average HOT lanes. And their HOV lane carries over four times as much. Transportation Research Board Highway Capacity Manual www.honolulutraffic.com/passperhour.htm www.honolulutraffic.com

20. Reversible non-stop HOT lanes are better Two lanes into town in the morning and out in the afternoon. Buses and vanpools have priority, cars pay tolls electronically. A fast, reliable trip when needed makes them popular with everyone. http://www.honolulutraffic.com/lexuslane.htm www.honolulutraffic.com This is the 3-lane Tampa reversible toll lanes due to open later this year.

21. HOT lanes: Waikele to Pier 16 We have suggested running a HOT lanes facility from around the H1/H2 merge down to Pier 16 near Hilo Hattie’s. www.honolulutraffic.com

22. HOT lanes advantages: • Uncongested HOT lane traffic is at 55-60mph but, because of station stops, rail only averages 22 to 28 mph. • HOT lanes enable buses to make two trips in the time it now takes to make one. • Buses can travel door-to-door whereas rail nearly always requires transfers. Buses can make two trips by returning in the reverse direction using regular, relatively uncrowded freeways. http://www.honolulutraffic.com/railspeed.pdf www.honolulutraffic.com

23. HOT lanes are more efficient A regularfreeway lane, such as the H-1 between Mapunapuna and Kaimuki, during the congested peak rush hour now carries just 1,500 vehicles (cars and buses) per hour with an average load of 1.25 people, or1,875 per lane hour. Freeways peak out at over 2,000 vehicles an hour when uncongested. As more and more vehicles crowd onto the freeways at peak hours, the throughput of vehicles declines until it reaches bottom at around 1,500 an hour. www.honolulutraffic.com

24. HOT lanes are more efficient • A HOT laneduring the peak rush hour carries 1,800 vehicles per hour because of pricing. • The two HOT lanes will take3,600 vehicles off the regular freeways— guaranteed — in addition to those switching from cars to buses. These will be about 25% of auto commuters in the corridor. * The higher average load is because of a greater ratio of buses to autos and more use of carpooling on priced lanes. See Poole and Orski. There is a seeming paradox here that by restraining drivers from entering the freeway, we get greater throughput but that is the way it works. The variable is not whether HOT lanes can take 3,600 cars of the regular freeway but rather the toll price that it will take to do that. It may be $5, or 5¢ but between these two numbers is a price that will entice drivers to fill the HOT lanes.

25. HOT lanes are more efficient A HOT laneduring the peak rush hour carries 1,800 vehicles per hour with an average load of 2.5 people,* or4,500 per lane hour. * The higher average load is because of a greater ratio of buses to autos and more use of carpooling on priced lanes. SeePoole and Orski. You will have noticed that the 4,500 people is 2.4 times that of a regular freeway lane. www.honolulutraffic.com

26. HOT lanes are more efficient • The two HOT lanes together carry 9,000 people an hour. • That’s the same as nearly five regular freeway lanes • That is more than the people carried by either the H-1 or Moanalua freeways. www.honolulutraffic.com

27. The cost of rail: • Waiau to UH in 1991$ $1.8 billion • Inflation 1991-2005 $0.7 billion • Kapolei to Waiau ext $1.6 billion • Total cost $4.1 billion • Less Federal funding $0.5 billion • To be locally funded $3.5 billion Before cost overruns The ½ percent GE tax hike is not enough. In the out years it only covers interest and operating losses. We will still owe $3 billion 15 years out. The $1.8 billion is arrived at by taking the total 1992 FEIS LPA costs and deducting the No-Build costs. www.honolulutraffic.com See honolulutraffic.com spreadsheet

28. HOT lanes do not need a tax hike • 10 miles @ $90 mm a mile* $900 million • Less federal funding ($450 million) • Net local funding needed $450 million • Toll revenues, $20 million annually growing at ½ % annually plus inflation, will retire a $450 million bond issue in 25 years. • * According to Braden Smith, CFO of Tampa-Hillsborough Expressway Authority (813) 272-6740 Tampa cost should be $28 million a mile. We are understating the HOT lanes costs somewhat. The main issue is that they do not need a tax increase. www.honolulutraffic.com

29. Summary: • Rail has never improved traffic congestion. • We have a traffic problem, not a transit problem. • HOT lanes gives motorists a choice. • HOT lanes outperform rail transit. • We can afford HOT lanes; we cannot afford rail. www.honolulutraffic.com

30. Atlanta Washington, DC Dallas Los Angeles San Diego San Francisco Chicago Miami Boston Denver Seattle Portland New York Sacramento Salt Lake City Philadelphia St. Louis Cleveland Buffalo Pittsburgh Honolulu would be the smallest metro area with rail in the U.S. There are 32 larger than us with no rail. And worse, the $3.5 billion in local funding needed would burden our local taxpayers per capita far more than any other metro area in the country. www.honolulutraffic.com

31. honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion That’s it. Thanks for staying with us through the whole presentation! Questions to info@honolulutraffic.com