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Unraveling Economic Cycles: The Persistent Patterns of Market Bubbles

This analysis explores the cyclical nature of financial markets, illustrating how similar scenarios play out with different actors. Highlighting past market bubbles—like the tech bubble of 2000 and the credit bubble of 2005—key insights from finance experts underscore the recurring theme: optimism at market peaks and pessimism at bottoms. The piece includes data on the wealth effect, housing inventory trends, and the historical context of consumer behavior during critical economic phases, emphasizing that while history may not repeat, it certainly rhymes.

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Unraveling Economic Cycles: The Persistent Patterns of Market Bubbles

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  1. Same Play, Different ActorsDecember 12, 2005 Bill LaggnerKevin DuffyBearing Asset Management, LLC

  2. Same Play, Different Actors Source: Bearing Asset Management art department

  3. “The only permanent truth in finance is that people will get bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom.”- James Grant,Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

  4. Same Play, Different Actors 2005 Credit bubble 2000 Tech bubble Source: Bearing Asset Management

  5. Same Play, Different ActorsMagazine Covers Housing Boom June 13, 2005 Tech Boom June 19, 2000

  6. Same Play, Different ActorsPied Pipers Abby Cohen June 1, 1998 Jim “Mad Money” Cramer October 31, 2005

  7. Same Play, Different Actors

  8. Wealth Effect or Illusion? Tech bubble Credit bubble Fair value net worth: Equities = 80% x DPI Real estate = 130% x DPI “What I think I’m worth” “What I’m really worth” Sources: Federal Reserve, Bearing Asset Management

  9. Wealth Effect or Illusion?2000 Tech Bubble March, 2000 = 177% Long-term average = 80% x DPI Sources: Federal Reserve, Bearing Asset Management

  10. Wealth Effect or Illusion?2005 Credit Bubble September, 2005 = 211% Long-term average = 130% x DPI Sources: Federal Reserve, Bearing Asset Management

  11. Wealth Effect or Illusion?2000 Tech Bubble vs. 2005 Credit Bubble Tech bubble Credit bubble Sources: Federal Reserve, Bearing Asset Management

  12. Forbes 400 Wealthiest Americans Sources: Forbes, Bearing Asset Management

  13. Stadium Naming Rights Sources: ESPN, League of Fans, Ryan Krueger, Wikipedia, Bearing Asset Management

  14. Canary in the Coal Mine: 2000Key Consumer of Networking & Telecom Equipment Tech equipment suppliers follow Internet leads

  15. Canary in the Coal Mine: 2005Key Supplier of Mortgage Credit Home buyers follow Fannie Mae leads

  16. The Fat Lady is SingingCredit Drug Wearing Off Source: Blogspot.com

  17. The Fat Lady is SingingHome Inventories Rising Past Three Months • Phoenix: 72.3% • Miami: 47.7% • Tampa: 36.3% • Washington, DC: 34.1% • Jacksonville: 32.1% • Boston: 28.5% • Los Angeles: 26.7% Sources: Housing Tracker, BusinessWeek

  18. The Fat Lady is SingingRefi Tailwind Becoming ARM Reset Tsunami Source: Bearing Asset Management

  19. “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”- Mark Twain

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