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Executive Board meeting 13 March 2008

Executive Board meeting 13 March 2008. 1. Various inflation indicators 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – February 2008. CPI. Weighted median. CPI-ATE. 20 per cent trimmed mean. 2. Source: Statistics Norway.

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Executive Board meeting 13 March 2008

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  1. Executive Board meeting13 March 2008 1

  2. Various inflation indicators12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – February 2008 CPI Weighted median CPI-ATE 20 per cent trimmed mean 2 Source: Statistics Norway

  3. CPI-ATE1) Total and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services2). Projections from MPR 3/07 (broken lines). 12-month change. Per cent Domestically produced goods and services (0.7) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 2) Norges Bank's calculations. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  4. Contributions to change in 12-month rise in the CPI-ATE 1) since February 2007Percentage points. February 2007 – February 2008 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  5. CPI-ATE1)Total and by supplier sector2). 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – December 2011 Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 2) Norges Bank's calculations. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  6. Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead1)Per cent. 02 Q2 –08 Q1 Expected inflation 5 years ahead Expected inflation 2 years ahead 1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and experts (financial industry employees, macroanalysts and academics) Source: TNS Gallup

  7. Norges Bank's regional network: Capacity constraints Per cent. January 2005 – January 2008 Capacity 1) Labour2) 1) Share reporting that they would have some or considerable difficulty in accommodating an increase in demand. 2) Share who respond that the supply of labour will be a limiting factor for output/turnover. Source: Norges Bank

  8. Oil price (Brent Blend). Spot and futures pricesIn USD per barrel 11 March 2008 25 October 2007 (MPR 3/07) Sources: Reuters (EcoWin) and Norges Bank

  9. International commodity prices in SDRIndex, 2000 = 100. Week 1 2000 – Week 10 2008 Metals Industrials All items Non-food agriculturals Food 9 Sources: Reuters (EcoWin), The Economist and Norges Bank

  10. Equities Indices, 1 January 2007 = 100. 1 January 2007 – 12 March 2008 Emerging market economies (MSCI) Norway (OSEBX) US (S&P 500) Europe (STOXX) Japan (Nikkei) 10 Source: Reuters (EcoWin)

  11. Difference between three-month money market rates and expected key rates1)In percentage points. Historic (from 1 June 2007) and ahead (at 12 March 2008) UK US Euro area Norway 2) 1) The expected key rate is measured by the Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS). 2) Norges Bank’s estimates. Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters (EcoWin) and Norges Bank

  12. 12 March 2008 After previous monetary policy meeting (23 January 2008) Key policy rates and forward rates23 January and 12 March 2008 US UK Norway Euro area Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  13. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2011 MPR 1/08 I-44 (right-hand scale) 12 March 2008 12 March 2008 23 January 2008 Weighted interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  14. Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates1)Per cent Baseline scenario MPR 1/08 Market 12 March 2008 Market 23 January 2007 I) A credit risk premium and a technical difference of 0.20 percentage point have been deducted to ensure comparability with the key policy rate. 14 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  15. The baseline scenarios in MPR 3/07 and MPR 1/08 with fan charts from MPR 1/08. Per cent 90% 70% 50% 30% Key policy rate Output gap MPR 1/08 MPR 1/08 MPR 3/07 MPR 3/07 CPI CPI-ATE MPR 3/07 MPR 1/08 MPR 1/08 MPR 3/07 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  16. Strategy interval 1/08 3/07 MPR 3/07 2/07 1/07 MPR 1/08 3/06 2/06 1/06 3/05 2/05 1/05 3/04 Key policy rate 16 Source: Norges Bank

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